UFC 291: Blachowicz vs Pereira Picks and Predictions

Jan Blachowicz has demonstrated that age is just a number, as the 40-year-old Pole is one win away from a likely shot at the light heavyweight title. Our UFC betting picks believe he can put Alex Pereira behind him in this UFC 291 feature.

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An already exciting light heavyweight UFC 291 co-main event between Jan Blachowicz and Alex Pereira suddenly has a lot more juice after division champion Jamahal Hill vacated the title due to injury. As a result, the winner of this fight on Saturday night is expected to earn a title shot. 

As the close UFC odds indicate — Blachowicz at -115 and Pereira at -105 — a good case can be made for either fighter to get their hand raised. Let’s dig into some positives and negatives for each fighter, and I’ll give you my best bet as well as some other betting options to consider in my UFC picks and predictions for Blachowicz vs. Pereira on Saturday night.

Blachowicz vs Pereira fight odds

Blachowicz vs Pereira method of victory odds

Blachowicz vs Pereira picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Blachowicz vs Pereira betting preview

At 40-years-old, this is likely Jan Blachowicz's last opportunity to make a run at the title. Thankfully for the former champ, he already has experience fighting a high-profile striker who’s coming up from the middleweight division. He defeated Israel Adesanya in his lone defense of the light heavyweight championship, and I think utilizing the blueprint he used in that fight is his strongest path to victory. 

While he successfully employed his striking vs. Adesanya — and actually out-landed him — he also took him to the ground three times, which led to 7:06 of control that Adesanya didn’t have an answer for. While Pereira has shown respectable takedown defense in the octagon, he hasn’t really been challenged in that aspect of the game. In his last three fights, he’s only needed to defend a grand total of five takedown attempts — all of which came from Adesanya, who isn’t exactly regarded as a high-level wrestler.

We know Blachowicz prefers to strike and is very efficient at it — both offensively and defensively. But he has used the takedown to his advantage in a handful of his wins. At this stage of his career, he should be able to realize that wrestling is the smartest strategy he can employ vs a world-class striker of Pereira’s level.

By many accounts, Alex Pereira’s weight cut to make 185 pounds was one of the most brutal in the UFC. While I was hoping he’d stick around at middleweight for a rubber match with Adesanya, it’s quite possible that we could get the best version of him on Saturday night at 205 pounds, which is probably his natural weight class. For a fighter that’s displayed the amount of power that he has, not being completely sucked out and at optimal health from not cutting a dangerous amount of weight should only make him more explosive. 

Also working to his advantage is an aging opponent who doesn’t exactly come into the fight with a ton of momentum. Blachowicz is 1-1-1 in his last three fights, with the one win coming as a result of a knee injury to Aleksandar Rakic. The one loss is a very significant one, as it came at the hands of Glover Teixeira — Pereira’s coach and mentor. Cleary, there’s a lot of familiarity with Blachowicz in Pereira’s camp.

One factor in any Pereira fight where the opponent and weight class doesn’t matter is that this man has the touch of death in his hands, and it could come at any time. It could be early, like when he pinged Sean Strickland for a KO victory in the first round of their fights, or it could come in the 22nd minute in a fight that he’s losing, as it did in his first UFC fight vs. Adesanya.

Blachowicz vs Pereira tale of the tape

Blachowicz vs Pereira UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Blachowicz

Considering where he’s at in his career, I think the desperation of needing to win will override any sort of ego that could force Blachowicz into a striking battle. While it might not be exciting, the smart approach is to try to put Pereira on his back and keep him there. The strategy will win rounds and could lead to tentativeness with Pereira’s striking if he knows takedown attempts are coming.

Prediction: Blachowicz moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Blachowicz moneyline

Given that he has a very clear path to victory, I think -115 is a very fair number for Blachowicz, so I’ll happily take him on the moneyline.

Other bets to consider are Over 1.5 rounds at -145, and Blachowicz by decision at +350, both via DraftKings. If Blachowicz does borrow from the blueprint that he used in his decision victory over Adesanya, we could be in for a longer fight. Time spent on the mat will simply chew up a lot of clock and a lot of energy, which needs to be considered with the fight taking place at elevation in Utah. This could lead to a sluggish three-round fight.

Let’s also keep in mind that we don’t see a lot of quick finishes in Blachowicz fights. He’s got that Polish power, and he’s been in there with lot of heavy hitters, yet only two of his 19 fights in the UFC were finished in the opening round.

Pick: Blachowicz moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)