UFC 298 predictions, odds, best bets: Breaking down the highly anticipated Volkanovski vs. Topuria

The Athletic

01 January 0001

The next two months will be great if you’re a fan of mixed martial arts, with a run of excellence starting Saturday with UFC 298, headlined by Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria.

I’ll be breaking down that championship matchup along with a couple of my other favorite fights on the slate. And as usual, if you want full breakdowns for every fight on every card, you can find that on my site DailyFanMMA BrettAppley

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria

In one of the most highly anticipated featherweight title fights in recent memory, we’ll see the undefeated challenger Ilia Topuria step into the Octagon to face a pound-for-pound great in Alexander Volkanovski.

Volkanovski is coming off a knockout loss to Islam Makhachev in his second failed attempt to win the lightweight belt, and that’s put a lot of cause for concern in the minds of any but his most avid fans. Especially after he said he didn’t spend enough time training for his last camp, many will wonder whether age and time in the sport have caught up to Volkanovski.

I find it difficult to quantify a recent knockout like that and how much it will impact this upcoming bout against Topuria. Volkanovski has long been considered a durable athlete with great cardio and toughness to fight through adverse situations. However, he can never take back the damage he sustained against Makhachev, and it is possible that the blitzing combinations from Topuria could lead to another knockout loss.

Outside of that result, though, it’s tough for me to view Topuria as the deserving favorite in the matchup, and I’m surprised the betting line is so competitive. BetMGM currently has Volkanovski lined at -125 to win, with Topuria lined as the +105 underdog. I perceive the value to be on the side of the champion.

The reality is that Volkanovski is ultra-tested against most of the division’s best talents from the past five years. Many believe he was robbed of a victory against Makhachev less than a year ago. Volkanovski is still one of the best-round winners in the sport today, and he’s extremely well-rounded. He lands 6.19 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.42 with a 58 percent defensive rate.

Volkanovski will attack all levels, and we’ve seen him implement opponent-specific game plans, like chopping at the legs of Holloway. And he can also wrestle. Volkanovski lands 1.84 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 70 percent. He is not forced into grappling but always has that path to victory in his back pocket, and even Makhachev had a very difficult time winning grappling exchanges against him, outside of a couple of back takes.

Topuria enters this fight 14-0 professionally, winning each of his six bouts in the UFC. He’s knocked out several opponents impressively and is coming off his career-best performance against Josh Emmett over five rounds.

I’m not the biggest fan of Topuria, but he’s a dangerous fighter. He came into the promotion with a grappling base and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. In recent years, he’s developed more into a boxer, with speed in his hands and power to boot. And what can I say? He just landed 152 significant (sig.) strikes in 25 minutes against Emmett, which proves to me that he can actually fight for an extended period, something I was not certain about prior to that fight.

It is very possible that Topuria could hurt Volkanovski or compete with him in rounds over the duration. Still, his style makes me nervous. His theoretical grappling upside will probably be limited in this particular fight, and I would be pretty shocked to see him dominate Volkanovski on the canvas. I suppose he could land a couple of takedowns and maybe take the back at points. That’s still a difficult task, and it’s possible that Volkanovski could largely shut him out from any top control time.

On the feet, Topuria has decent metrics, landing 4.44 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.05 with a 67 percent defensive rate. But he’s largely a head-hunter, and he will chase after the knockout.

His approach has led to quick knockouts against opponents like Damon Jackson and Ryan Hall. Josh Emmett couldn’t defend his attack either. I’d be surprised if Topuria could duplicate the same success against Volkanovski, a far superior technical fighter with a much better fight IQ than Topuria’s past opponents.

And if Topuria is not landing bombs on the feet, what else does he have in his game? He rarely attacks the body and the legs. I don’t trust his wrestling. I’m not even certain he has the durability edge here, despite Volkanovski’s recent loss. Topuria was badly hurt by Jai Herbert in 2022. He was outlanded at distance by Bryce Mitchell, too, 34 to 29, which I haven’t seen many people talk about.

I’m not convinced that Topuria has enough consistency or depth in his game to win this fight if he doesn’t bomb Volkanovski and knock him out early. Maybe that outcome is likelier than I imagine it to be, though. I feel pretty confident about my process leading me toward picking Volkanovski outright here, and I feel somewhat confident in my process leading me to view Volkanovski as a value play.

But I have to admit, I do feel less confident in how this fight will play out. I am also nervous for early exchanges, and I could foresee a slower-paced, competitive kickboxing fight. Give me the champion to retain his belt, but I won’t be surprised if it’s a sweat.

Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov

One fight that interests me and might be getting overlooked is our main card opener between Anthony Hernandez and Roman Kopylov, who have both found success inside the Octagon as of late.

Hernandez is coming off four consecutive wins and has slaughtered his opponents with wrestling and pace. That’s the style I love, as it’s somewhat predictive and very difficult for opponents to deal with.

I didn’t love his style entering the UFC, though, as it was mostly built on pressure, which forced his opponents to shoot takedowns and ended with Hernandez locking them up in a guillotine choke. And he’s still not a distance threat. Hernandez is quite likely to be a liability at distance. He lands 4.33 sig. strikes per minute, but only 28 percent of his fights play out at distance, which is much lower than the average 64 percent in this weight class. His last loss came by a quick KO to Kevin Holland in 2020, and he was hurt early by Edmen Shahbazyan as well.

I am not that confident in Hernandez unless he’s aggressively chasing takedowns. But the fact that he’s averaging 6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and is nearing one takedown attempt per minute on average gives me a lot of confidence that he’ll at least continue to pursue his style.

His next opponent will be Roman Kopylov, who presents a much different style, and is essentially a sniper at distance.

Kopylov started his UFC career off with a couple of poor losses but has since won four in a row, and he has four knockdowns in his past five fights. He averages 4.72 sig. strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.11 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate.

Let’s state the obvious and make it clear that if this fight plays out at a distance, I feel pretty confident Kopylov will win. He’s just an accurate striker, with speed, and a diverse game that includes both boxing and kickboxing. His recent win against Punahele Soriano was very impressive, and I wouldn’t be that shocked if he could hurt Hernandez at distance and put him away.

However, Kopylov’s weakness has been on the ground, where he’s lost both his fights. His first-level takedown defense is an impressive 92 percent, but the issue is that once he hits the canvas, his submission grappling and get-up game are not strong.

His UFC-debut submission loss to Karl Roberson has aged horribly, and he was badly beaten up on the ground by Albert Duraev as well. Since those losses, he has not given up a takedown, and he’s defended well against a poor level of competition. It’s plausible that he’s improved this time, but I am skeptical.

And the issue is that Hernandez will not stop. Defending four takedowns in 15 minutes is one thing, but can Kopylov defend 15 takedowns? If he can completely shut out Hernandez, then Kopylov will win. If he gives up even one or two takedowns, it really feels like Hernandez will take over. Even if Kopylov can scramble up, Hernandez seems likely to wear him down eventually. And if Hernandez ever gets firm control on the mat, with Kopylov on the bottom, Hernandez might just pound him out or choke him out.

On BetMGM, Hernandez is a solid favorite at -250, which is more than I would like to pay. I do feel fairly safe about his chances to win, but I understand not wanting to force in chalky options. If you want a better line, you can find Hernandez ITD props at plus money, which I feel may be worth a stab, and his submission prop at +175 intrigues me as well.

Conversely, Kopylov could be worth a look at +200 if you’re a believer in his takedown defense, but I would prefer to take a chance on his TKO prop at +350, which is probably the most likely outcome for Kopylov if he wins at all.