UFC 299: Poirier vs Saint Denis Odds, Picks & Predictions

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08 March 2024

UFC 299: Poirier vs Saint Denis Odds, Picks & Predictions

Unlike his upcoming opponent, Dustin Poirier has faced five-round wars, and that should benefit the Louisiana underdog on Saturday night in Miami. Find out more in our Poirier vs. Saint Denis UFC 299 betting picks.

Dustin Poirier faces off against Benoit Saint Denis in the co-main event for UFC 299 betting on March 9.

Although Poirier has never been the undisputed lightweight champ, he's long been at the top of this division, while Saint-Denis is a rising star who looks like a future contender. UFC odds opened with Saint-Denis as a -148 favorite and money has poured in on the younger fighter, who now sits at -220 with Poirier coming back at +170.

Here are my best free Poirier vs. Saint Denis picks and predictions for UFC 299 from the Kaseya Center in Miami.

Dustin Poirier vs Benoit Saint Denis fight odds

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Poirier vs Saint Denis picks

Fight prediction: Poirier ML

While I was leaning towards Benoit Saint Denis at his opening price of -148, the line has swung too far to take him on the moneyline.

Saint Denis has the grappling advantage and being seven years younger also helps. However, he can be too aggressive with his striking and his recklessness in the pocket has led to him eating heavy shots.

That's bad news against a fighter like Dustin Poirier, who is known for his slick boxing and heavy hands. Although Saint Denis' chin has held up against inferior strikers, it will be much tougher to tank Poirier's accurate shots.

This bout has also been slated for five rounds, yet Saint Denis has seldom extended beyond two rounds, having also lost his only match that lasted 15 minutes. Poirier has been in five-round wars before and has shown the ability to dig deep and fight through adversity, whereas BSD hasn't shown that mettle yet.

Prediction: Poirier moneyline (+170 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Poirier ML

While sharp money has come in on the younger fighter, Saint Denis has also gotten most of the tickets, which is an indication of public money. I can't help but think the public has been somewhat influenced by the recent loss of Alexander Volkanovski, who was in a similar spot.

Like Volkanovski, Poirier is on the wrong side of 35 and is fresh off an ugly knockout loss and now faces a hungry younger fighter with stopping power. However, there are differences as well. Volk faced Ilia Topuria just four months after getting starched by Islam Makhachev, while Poirier has taken more than seven months off since getting put to sleep by Justin Gaethje.

In addition, Topuria had dominant victories against a pair of Top-10 featherweights while Saint Denis' best victory came in his previous bout against Matt Frevola, who is a fringe Top-15 lightweight. Saint Denis closed as a -225 favorite for that previous fight against Frevola and it's wild that he has nearly identical odds against an elite fighter like Poirier.

At this price, it's tough to turn down a proven commodity like Poirier, who has only lost to the cream of the crop.

Pick: Poirier moneyline (+170 at Bet99)

Poirier vs Saint Denis betting preview

Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier is the No. 3 ranked lightweight contender. He's coming off a loss last July when he was starched by a head kick from Justin Gaethje in the second round following a competitive first frame. He's 9-3 in his last 12 fights, with those defeats coming against former champs in Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira, as well as the No. 2 ranked contender in Gaethje.

Poirier entered the UFC way back in 2011 and has racked up a 21-7 record in the promotion, with 15 of those wins coming inside the distance. With his footwork, crisp combinations, and heavy hands, Poirier boasts some of the best boxing in MMA.

He lands 5.49 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.30. That positive strike differential is especially impressive when you take into account both the sample size and the high caliber of his opponents.

Benoit Saint Denis suffered the first and only defeat of his career when he made his UFC debut at welterweight against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in 2021. However, he took that fight on short notice and has since dropped down to lightweight, where he has reeled off five straight stoppage wins.

In Saint Denis' previous bout, he knocked out Matt Frevola with a head kick in the first round to earn a Performance of the Night bonus and take his spot in the rankings.

Saint Denis is nicknamed "God of War" due to his background in the French Special Forces, as well as his all-out violence inside the cage. The 28-year-old has terrific grappling with high-end submissions, but he's also a dangerous kickboxer who loves to apply pressure.