UFC 299: Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis odds, picks & predictions

In a 5-round lightweight bout in the co-main event, Dustin Poirier and Benoit Saint-Denis meet Saturday at UFC 299 at Kaseya Center in Miami. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 299: Poirier vs. Saint-Denis odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on pay-per-view.

Records: Poirier (29-8-0) | Saint-Denis (13-1-0)

Poirier looks to bounce back after falling to Justin Gaethje at UFC 291 last time out in late July. He is just 1-2 in his past 3 bouts, also falling to Charles Oliveira at UFC 269 in a 3rd-round submission to lose his chance at the welterweight strap. He did have a solid submission win over Michael Chandler at UFC 281, however. Each of his past 5 fights have finished inside the distance.

Saint-Denis has picked up 5 straight victories since losing to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at UFC 267 in his debut with the company. The Frenchman, a.k.a. “God of War”, has 3 KO/TKO wins and 2 submission wins since that setback to EZDS. That solid win streak includes a 1st-round KO/TKO over Matt Frevola at UFC 295 in just 91 seconds last time out in mid-November.

Saint-Denis holds a slight 1-inch reach advantage, and he is 7 years younger than the underdog. The significant strikes landed per minute is nearly identical, with Saint-Denis holding an ever-so-slight 5.53-to-5.49 advantage, although he is much more accurate at 61.36%. He also has a tremendous 4.55 takedown average and 1.40-to-1.21 submission average.

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UFC 299: Poirier vs. Saint-Denis odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

UFC 299: Poirier vs. Saint-Denis picks and predictions

Saint-Denis (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite a bit of risk against a veteran like Poirier (+165).

While Poirier is just 4-3 in his past 7 fights, the losses have been against the best of the best in the division. This certainly won’t be easy for Saint-Denis. However, the southpaw Frenchman should get the job done with his tremendous punching ability, and playing SAINT-DENIS BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-150) is a strong play.

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-105) is a solid play. While we’re not picking Poirier to win, he certainly won’t go quietly into the Miami night, either. Saint-Denis will have to work, and work hard to get the knockout.

Don’t expect to see this one end until at least Rounds 3 or 4. As such, playing ROUND 3 (+450) and ROUND 4 (+600) for the exact round the fight will end is worth a look. While you’ll obviously lose 1 of the bets, if the fight ends in Rounds 3-4, you’ll still be quite a bit ahead.

No (-500): Will the fight go the distance? costs you 5 times your potential return, and that’s just too much risk for not nearly enough value.