UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Gaziev Odds, Picks & Predictions

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29 February 2024

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Gaziev Odds, Picks & Predictions

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on March 2 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. After a fantastic Fight Night card in Mexico and a stacked UFC 299 event next weekend, this isn't the most exciting headline bout but it does provide a nice betting opportunity.

UFC odds have Gaziev installed as a -155 favorite in just his second fight in the promotion while the 12th ranked heavyweight contender Rozenstruik is at +135. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev picks and predictions for Saturday.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev fight odds

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Rozenstruik vs Gaziev picks

Fight prediction: Rozenstruik

While Rozenstruik is just 2-4 in his last six fights, he has faced a far higher level of competition than Gaziev, who made his UFC debut less than three months ago.

To be fair, he looked great in that debut against Martin Buday who was on an 11-fight winning streak and had won his first four UFC fights before getting steamrolled by Gaziev. Buday was practically a punching bag in that bout, crumbling under the pressure of Gaziev and offering little resistance to his tight boxing combinations.

However, Rozenstruik has gone toe-to-toe with some of the best heavyweight strikers in the UFC, and his crisp counter striking and kicks will make it tough for Gaziev to apply that kind of pressure. If Gaziev relies on his wrestling and top control he should be able to win here, but he needs to get an early finish because he gasses out after the first round and Rozenstruik carries his power late.

With Rozenstruik's knockout power and experience, I'll lean towards him at at plus money here.

Prediction: Rozenstruik moneyline (+135 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Rozenstruik by knockout

Gaziev has eaten some big punches on the regional scene in Europe, and while his chin has held up, that might not be the case against a heavy hitter like "Bigi Boy". Rozenstruik has death-touch power in his hands and kicks, even moving backwards.

With all seven of Rozenstruik's wins in the UFC coming by way of KO/TKO, that remains his most likely path to victory here. Especially against Gaziev who leaves his chin in the air and has never faced anybody as dangerous.

This bout should be closer to a pick'em and with Rozenstruik by knockout paying out at +155, the value is with him.

Pick: Rozenstruik by KO/TKO (+155 at Bet99)

Rozenstruik vs Gaziev betting preview

Rozenstruik entered the promotion with plenty of hype, and after beginning his UFC career with four-straight knockout wins, he faced Francis Ngannou and was promptly starched in 20 seconds.

That was the first indication that while he's a Top-15 heavyweight, he's far beneath the guys at the top of the division. He's 2-4 in his last six fights with first-round finishes against Chris Daukaus and Augusto Sakai, and lopsided defeats to Cyril Gane, Curtis Blaydes, Alexander Volkov, and Jailton Almeida.

A former professional kickboxer, Rozenstruik is a highly-technical striker with knockout power. However, he doesn't throw with much volume and he's extremely vulnerable on the mat.

Gaziev didn't start fighting professionally until 2020, but has already compiled a 12-0 record. The 34-year-old pulled off a first-round submission on Dana White's Contender Series last September to earn a UFC contract. He made his promotional debut in December and knocked out Martin Buday in the second round to show that he could be a problem in this division.

Gaziev is a well-rounded heavyweight who throws good boxing combinations while also boasting strong grappling ability.