UFC Fight Night: Saint-Denis vs Moises Picks and Predictions

Benoit Saint-Denis has had a solid run at lightweight, and our UFC betting picks believe he'll pick apart the one-dimensional Thiago Moises in the City of Light on Saturday.

Benoit Saint-Denis looks to build on his momentum against capable veteran Thiago Moises in a lightweight clash on the UFC Fight Night 226 undercard this weekend from the Accor Arena in Paris, France.

The rugged Saint-Denis will not have an easy hometown assignment, as Moises poses a legitimate threat to the surging brawler. UFC odds slightly favor Saint-Denis at -162, while Moises is a +136 underdog. 

Here are my free betting picks for Saint-Denis vs. Moises at UFC Fight Night from Paris.

Saint-Denis vs Moises fight odds

Saint-Denis vs Moises method of victory odds

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Saint-Denis vs Moises picks

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Saint-Denis vs Moises betting preview

Benoit Saint-Denis has developed a fan following for being as tough as a two-dollar steak. Though he looked awful in his debut, a late add-on at welterweight two years ago to Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos. Since then, Saint-Denis has rattled off three wins in his natural weight class, submitting Niklas Stolze, knocking out Gabriel Miranda in two rounds, and recently submitting the highly-touted Ismael Bonfim in July.

Saint-Denis is a tremendous grappler with a brown belt in BJJ and a black belt in judo. The Frenchman is an exhausting grappler, scoring 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes along with 1.9 submission attempts during that time frame. All 11 of his wins have been finishes, with nine of them being submissions for an average fight time of seven minutes and 54 seconds.

Thiago Moises hasn’t been able to break away from the middle of the pack, but he’s picked up some valuable time against elite opponents. The 17-6 veteran has been in the octagon against Bobby Green, Beneil Dariush, Damir Ismagulov, and current champion Islam Makhachev, defeating only Green. Even though he’s fallen short against the true elite of the division, he has won his last two fights against Christos Giagos and Melquizael Costa by submission. 

Like Saint-Denis, Moises is a ground specialist with a black belt in BJJ. He lands 1.53 takedowns per 15 minutes along with 1.3 submission attempts, but has better takedown accuracy than the always-mauling Saint-Denis. His experience might be his best weapon against the surging Saint-Denis.

Saint-Denis vs Moises tale of the tape

Saint-Denis vs Moises UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Saint-Denis

Saint-Denis is actively building up to be a factor at lightweight, whereas I feel we’ve seen the best of Moises. Both fighters are excellent when they can get an opponent to the ground, and they’re willing to take punishment to close the distance. If their grappling cancels each other out, this might be a striking battle, and Saint-Denis has the advantage standing. 

Moises has a remarkably poor striking defense. It’s not uncommon for him to be out-landed 2-1 or even 3-1 in certain fights because all he does is shoot for takedowns and submissions. 

We’ll see how resourceful Saint-Denis can be because he will struggle while trying to impose himself on the technically sound Moises. I still feel his energy and better striking will be the key, and he’ll come out on top.

Prediction: Saint-Denis moneyline (-162 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Saint-Denis by decision

Unless Moises manages to get Saint-Denis down early, he’s going to get pieced up as long as the fight remains standing. He’ll likely be on the defensive, waiting for an opening as Saint-Denis charges forward. Those elements are formulaic for a comprehensive defeat, not a win. 

Saint-Denis has higher striking accuracy and better takedown defense than Moises. That alone ensures he’ll have plenty of opportunities to score, and Moises’ inability to discourage his offense with the threat of a takedown or submission might see this get lopsided early on.

Still, Moises can slow down the pace of the fight and definitely do some damage if he manages to secure top control when they hit the ground. I don’t see this ending any other way with Saint-Denis winning, with a decision being the most likely outcome.

Pick: Saint-Denis by decision (+350 at DraftKings)