UFC 295: Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Betting Prediction

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07 November 2023

UFC 295: Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Betting Prediction

The future of the lightweight division is under the spotlight this weekend at UFC 295 with an interesting upcoming UFC fight between No. 14 ranked lightweight Matt Frevola and Benoit Saint-Denis. These two are a couple of the brightest rising contenders in the UFC’s most star-studded division.

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis Picks

UFC 295 Pick: Saint-Denis will get his hand raised

Frevola vs Saint Denis prediction ahead of making your picks this weekend.

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis Information

Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint-Denis

Location of the game: Madison Square Garden. New York City, NY.

Date and Time: Saturday, November 11. 9:00 PM ET main card start

How to Watch: ESPN+ PPV

Last Fight Record

Frevola is coming off a big first-round TKO win over the tough Drew Dober in May at UFC 288.
Saint-Denis is fresh off a big-time second-round TKO win over the talented Thiago Moises in September in Paris.

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis Betting Analysis

Matt Frevola

Frevola is an American mixed martial artist fighting out of the famous Serra-Longo fight camp that has taken over the fight game in recent years. His professional MMA record is 11-3-1 with 4 TKO/KO wins and 3 submissions. With early wrestling and BJJ background, Frevola was able to start his career off well and earn a contract by winning in a fight on the first season of Dana White’s Contender Series.

In the UFC, Frevola is listed at 5’9” with a 71” reach while fighting out of mainly the orthodox stance. While in the octagon, he averages 3.72 significant strikes landed and 3.56 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He also lands 2.26 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon.

Benoit Saint-Denis

Saint-Denis is a French mixed martial artist with a professional record of 12-1 with 3 TKO/KO wins and 9 submission victories at only the age of 27. The young man served his country in the military with multiple tours before chasing his MMA dream.

“The God of War” was the Staredown Fighting Championship welterweight champion and had the Submission-of-the-Year award in 2020 for Brave FC. He’s a very big lightweight, being physically strong at 5’11” with a 73” reach out of the tricky southpaw stance. In the octagon, Saint-Denis isn’t afraid to trade shots–averaging 5.59 significant strikes landed and 5.27 absorbed per minute. He also gets 4.72 takedowns per 15 minutes, while having a stingy 80% takedown defense.

Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Betting Preview

Before making a tough Frevola vs Saint Denis prediction, let’s preview the betting lines early on in fight week and study the styles of both fighters. This will give us the best outlook on how this fight might end up.

UFC fight odds have Saint-Denis as the -225 betting favorite over the red-hot Frevola at +190. It’s still early on in the week, so more betting lines and prop bets will be released as the week moves close to the UFC fight night on Saturday.

Exciting Styles Collide

In terms of styles, these two are both very exciting and always looking for a finish. We have seen a mindset shift from Frevola in recent performances where he seemingly has let go of any insecurities in the cage. Also, he imposes his will on opponents with his pressure and surprising KO power later in his career.

Saint-Denis is a different breed of MMA fighter. He has seen actual warfare and honestly, probably has taken lives–not to be too morbid talking about the fight game. But you can see the intensity and focus, along with calmness in the brink of combat that has to give the Frenchman an edge on competition.

They both are very talented grapplers, which most of the time leads to a standup battle in the octagon. It will be an orthodox vs. southpaw chess game on the feet. Both men have plenty of power to end the fight with a clean shot or two with those 4-ounce gloves.

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis Betting Prediction

Even though we have a clear betting favorite in this bout, it’s honestly closer to a 50/50 fight than it says on paper. Frevola is the kind of guy that seems impossible to bet against right now in his career because he’s in his prime. He is figuring out so many things in the octagon–this might be his moment.

With that being said, the official Frevola vs Saint Denis prediction is that Saint-Denis will get his hand raised. This is a big moment for him coming to the east coast of the U.S. on enemy territory and getting the job done. The best bet might end up being a later-released prop bet for this fight to end inside the distance either way.