UFC Fight: Pat Sabatini vs. Lucas Almeida Analysis & Prediction

With another one of the great UFC events inside the APEX coming up this weekend, let’s highlight a featherweight bout scheduled on the main card between Pat Sabatini and Lucas Almeida. 

Read on for the official Sabatini vs Almeida betting analysis and prediction ahead of making your final bets on this weekend’s MMA betting slate.

Pat Sabatini vs Lucas Almeida

Location of the fight: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

Date and Time: Saturday, June 17. 10:00 PM ET

How to Watch: ESPN+

Sabatini will be looking to bounce back from taking a loss to Damon Jackson in his last appearance back in September of last year.

Almeida is finally back after a year off since his last fight, which was his UFC debut. He won that via third-round TKO over Michael Trizano.

Sabatini is a tough featherweight fighter out of the Philly area with a life-long history in combat sports. He is currently 17-4 in professional MMA and has 10 submissions, along with 2 TKO/KO victories at the age of 32. He picked up martial arts to deal with middle school bullies, and then that led to a NCAA D-1 wrestling career. 

Now at the professional level, Sabatini won his first four UFC fights. Now he gets to prove if he can move forward after a setback in his last fight. If you have never seen him fight, Sabatini comes with a very wrestle-heavy attack and has only averaged 1.67 significant strikes landed per minute in the octagon.

Almeida is an exciting new prospect making only his second appearance in the UFC. He lost a fight on DWCS in 2021, but then earned his UFC contract the hard way. He has a current professional MMA record of 16-1, with that only loss coming at the Contender Series. 

The Brazilian fighter will look to finish every single fight he is in and continue his 100% finishing rate. Almeida has a ton of confidence coming into this weekend.

According to UFC odds, Sabatini is the -170 betting favorite over the +145 Almeida. This fight is probably even closer than what those odds portray.

The most interesting Sabatini vs Almeida betting line is the under 2.5 rounds at -130. Neither of these fighters like to go the distance, especially Almeida. If you were following betting trends strictly, the under seems like a lock. 

Both of these men have valuable odds in a method of victory prop bet for either one to finish this fight early. Almeida has power and submission skills, paired with constant offensive pressure and output. Sabatini has a very sneaky submission game, always hunting for ankles and legs to end the fight quickly. 

The toughest thing to do in sports betting is make UFC predictions. This promotion has the best of the best face each other in the most unpredictable sport in the world. The gap between winning and losing is so narrow, along with both fighters being as talented as they are makes for a tough task.

• As for an official Sabatini vs Almeida betting prediction, we are going with Almeida cashing in as the underdog winner in this one.

This will most likely be a finish as well. It’s easy to imagine a situation where Sabatini is easily getting hit and goes down to grab an ankle and then gets finished with ground and pound. Or even a submission for Almeida is in the card–surprising the uber-confident Sabatini with submission skills of his own.

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