Villanova vs. Marquette prediction: Big East Tournament odds, best bets

Two teams that know each other very well will battle in a Big East Tournament quarterfinal on Thursday night as Marquette takes on Villanova at Madison Square Garden.

Without much context, fading the nation’s 10th-ranked team and the tournament’s No. 3 seed might seem like a surprising pick, but there are plenty of variables coming into play in this game.

I’ll lay out a few of the more notable ones in this Villanova vs. Marquette betting preview and find a betting edge.

(9:30 p.m. ET)

The Golden Eagles will again be without star point guard Tyler Kolek, who remains day-to-day with an oblique injury. 

Kolek feasted against Villanova in both games during the regular season, including a massive 32-point outing in late January. He is also a key cog defensively for Marquette and his presence will be greatly missed on both ends of the court.

He ranks fourth in the country in assist rate, via KenPom. While Kam Jones as a go-to scorer is a fantastic option for the Eagles, Kolek is such a staple of what Marquette does on each possession that he is worth a few points on the spread.

He was a big part of Marquette’s success against Villanova this season, averaging 26.5 points, 10.0 assists and 5.5 rebounds in the two games. but there were definitely some anomaly-type offensive performances in both of the Eagles’ wins.

In the first meeting, Marquette shot a ridiculous season-best 75% from 2-point range. In the second matchup, the Eagles logged a season-high free-throw rate, converting 21 of 29 attempts.

Villanova is one of the top teams in defensive free throw rate and also not committing fouls, so getting to the line 29 times in a single game was another rare feat that Marquette was able to accomplish against the Wildcats.

Nova is on a back-to-back, having barely escaped what would have been a gut-wrenching loss to DePaul on Wednesday, but the Wildcats have the 14th-ranked defensive efficiency, per KenPom, which could challenge a Kolek-less Eagles team on a neutral court.

Offensively, Villanova loves to launch 3-pointers, ranking 13th in the country in 3PA per FGA, and Marquette won’t be challenging them on the perimeter.

The Golden Eagles are bottom-20 in the country in yielding 3PA per FGA, which should make the Wildcats feel right at home offensively.

Of course, the ‘Cats will have to hit a few to make it work.

I’m backing Villanova and taking the four points.

The Wildcats are strong defensively and won’t have to get out of their game plan Thursday night.

Marquette, on the other hand, should see some negative regression in foul shooting and 2-point offense, which helped them win both previous meetings when Kolek was a huge part of those outcomes.

Pick: Villanova +4 (-110, Caesars)