What Iowa football’s path to possible Big Ten West title looks like with 3 weeks to go
CHICAGO — As Iowa football fought to hold onto its fourth-quarter lead against Northwestern, a massive divot formed at about the Iowa 2-yard line.
It was far greater in size than what any golf club could create. Perhaps, sinkhole would be a better description.
Wrigley Field groundskeepers hurriedly patched the hole with dirt during a stoppage in play, but one could still see the couple-feet-wide scar on the field afterward.
“That’s not a traditional football field,” Iowa defensive lineman Yahya Black said, looking retrospectively at the “weird” sight of the massive divot.
Like the divot-repaired Wrigley Field bluegrass playing surface, Iowa football has not always looked pretty. But most importantly, it is 7-2 — tied with the 2021 season for the best record through nine games since 2016 — and in the driver’s seat of the Big Ten West once again.
“It's hard to be 7-2 in the Big Ten,” linebacker Jay Higgins said. “I feel like maybe people are forgetting about that.”
Iowa went into Saturday in a four-way tie for first place in the Big Ten West. Wisconsin, Nebraska and Minnesota were all tied with Iowa with a 3-2 in-conference record.
Now, it has sole possession of first place after a perfect series of events for the Hawkeyes. Wisconsin, Nebraska and Minnesota all lost while Iowa won.
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Hawkeyes a 71.3 percent chance of winning the division. Wisconsin has the next-highest chances at a mere 13.8 percent.
Iowa still is a long way from clinching, though.
Three teams — the same three that Iowa was previously tied with — loom only one game behind the Hawkeyes. Another two teams — Illinois and Northwestern — are two games behind.
Iowa has home games against Rutgers and Illinois and a road game at Nebraska remaining on the schedule. ESPN Analytics gives Iowa a 62, 70.6 and 59.1 percent chance, respectively, of winning its remaining games.
The three pivotal games loom in November — a month that has fared well for the Hawkeyes in past seasons. Iowa has won 14 of its last 15 games in the month of November.
“We know November is a big month for Iowa football,” Higgins said.
If Iowa goes 3-0
This is the simplest scenario for the Hawkeyes. If they win all three games, they have a spot in Indianapolis.
Based on ESPN’s individual game odds — not a perfect measure considering the outcome of one game could affect others — there is roughly a 25.9 percent chance of this scenario happening.
If Iowa goes 2-1
Who the one loss is against would make a difference.
If the loss is against Rutgers or Illinois:
Iowa would go to Indianapolis as long as Minnesota loses one of its remaining games. The Gophers still have to play No. 1 Ohio State, so at least one more Minnesota loss is likely.
If the loss is against Nebraska:
Along with Minnesota losing at least one game, a Nebraska loss against either Wisconsin or Maryland would send the Hawkeyes to Indianapolis.
Based on ESPN’s individual game odds, there is roughly a 44.5 percent chance of Iowa going 2-1 in its last three games.
If Iowa goes 1-2
A 1-2 finish would put the Hawkeyes at 5-4 in conference play.
It is technically possible for a 5-4 Iowa team to go to Indianapolis, but a five-win team has never won the Big Ten West in its previous nine seasons of existence. As weak as this year’s division is, that trend is unlikely to change in the 10th and final year of the East-West division setup.
Minnesota already has the tiebreaker over Iowa. Losing the tiebreaker to Nebraska would be especially costly with the Huskers looming only one game behind the Hawkeyes.
Based on ESPN’s individual game odds, there is roughly a 25 percent chance of Iowa going 1-2 in its last three games.
If Iowa goes 0-3
As weak as the Big Ten West has been this year, it is almost impossible for a 4-5 team to win the division.
Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, this is an extremely unlikely scenario. ESPN’s individual game odds suggest there is about a 4.6 percent chance of this happening.
