New York Jets futures odds trends based on last 10 Hard Knocks seasons: win totals, playoff betting odds

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The 18th edition of HBO’s hit NFL reality show Hard Knocks premiers tonight, and this season documents the New York Jets.

While franchises that have appeared on Hard Knocks in the past have called it a distraction, it gives fans an inside look into a team’s behind-the-scenes operations ahead of the regular season. However, the Jets’ version of Hard Knocks will be a tad different, as the team plans to provide camera crews with less access than other squads have in previous years.

A glaring piece of content fans won’t see includes players being released because the Jets believe it’s inhumane to capture those moments on tape for viewers to see.

Regardless of what Hard Knocks does air from the 2023 Jets training camp, bettors can review the performances of teams that were previously featured on the show to extrapolate trends applicable to Gang Green.

Below are three best bets to place on the Jets based on how teams in the last 10 seasons of Hard Knocks have performed. Visit our Jets odds page to view the team’s full list of 2023 NFL betting markets.

Before diving into the Hard Knocks betting trends we unearthed, it’s important to note that many teams have had unsuccessful seasons after starring in the show. While franchises may blame shortcomings on the distraction of camera crews, the qualifications to be on the show tend to weed out quality squads.

There are three parameters in place that, even if one applies to an organization, make them ineligible for a Hard Knocks feature:

• Teams with a first-year head coach
• Teams that have made the postseason in the past two seasons
• Teams featured on Hard Knocks in the past 10 years

The second rule is what typically disqualifies top-tier teams. Sustained success is why we never saw Tom Brady and the New England Patriots on HBO and why we likely won’t see Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs anytime soon.

But the Jets aren’t your typical Hard Knocks squad. Four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers joins a group led by Defensive and Offensive Rookies of the Year Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson, respectively.

That’s important to keep in mind when considering the betting trends from recent Hard Knocks seasons.

We also excluded the results from Hard Knocks’ In-Season series that starred the Indianapolis Colts in 2021 and Arizona Cardinals in 2022. The trends researched only focused on the training camp editions of the HBO show.

Lastly, we compiled data from the last 10 seasons of Hard Knocks that actually covered the season-long results of 11 teams. That’s because, in 2020, Hard Knocks followed the Los Angeles Chargers and Rams, standing as the only time HBO followed two teams in the preseason.

Dating back to the Cincinnati Bengals’ appearance on Hard Knocks in 2013, teams have averaged 7.9 wins per season. But the Hard Knocks curse may be a thing of the past, as three of the last four squads have finished above .500.

The best Hard Knocks team of the last 10 years is the 2021 Dallas Cowboys, who won the NFC East with a 12-5 record. Like the 2023 Jets, that Cowboys group had some Green Bay magic in the locker room, as it was former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy’s second year in Big D.

Since the NFL tacked on an additional week of games starting in 2021, Hard Knocks squads have averaged 10.5 wins per year.

The overarching trend says to take the Jets win total under, while a smaller sample size from the past two seasons pulls Gang Green backers to the over, which comes at a -122 price tag at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Of the 11 teams featured on Hard Knocks in the previous 10 years, only four earned playoff berths, and none moved beyond the Divisional Round. Three of the postseason squads qualified by winning the division.

Hard Knocks franchises most commonly finished third in the division, which happened five times. Second-most common was the three divisional champions, followed by two squads that finished second, and the 2017 Tampa Bay Buccaneers bring up the rear, as they’re the lone group that placed last in the division.

Finally, a Hard Knocks trend for the Jets faithful to get behind.

The passing leader for seven of the previous 11 Hard Knocks teams has surpassed 3,800 yards through the air. Had Baker Mayfield tallied 76 more yards with the 2018 Cleveland Browns, the figure would’ve shifted to eight.

QBs are on a five-season streak of eclipsing Rodgers’ passing yards total. Four of them surpassed the total with room to spare, as they went for 4,000+ yards.

Hard Knocks trends aside, A-Rod has had no problem going over 3,800 yards in his career. In the 13 seasons Rodgers has spent as a starter while also avoiding significant injuries, he’s hit this 2023 NFL betting prop 12 times.

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