2023 British Open odds, golf picks, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm predictions from top model that nailed the Masters

No golfer has repeated at the Open Championship since Padraig Harrington in 2007 and 2008. Cameron Smith will try to break that lull when he tees off at the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool Golf Club on Thursday, July 20 after winning last year's event. Smith is going off at 20-1 in the 2023 Open Championship odds on Caesars Sportsbook. The Open Championship 2023 will be the first major played at Royal Liverpool Golf Club since 2014. Rory McIlroy, who is 9-1 among the 2023 Open Championship contenders, won the Open in 2014 but hasn't won a major since.

Jon Rahm is the 15-2 Open Championship favorite, while Scottie Scheffler, the No. 1 golfer in the world, is 9-1. Before locking in any 2023 Open Championship picks, be sure to see the 2023 Open Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $10,000 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model predicted Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. And at the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, the model included Nick Taylor in its best bets to win the 2023 RBC Canadian Open. That bet hit at +7000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,900. McClure's best bets also included Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, even though he hadn't won a PGA Tour event since 2018.

This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 Open Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2023 Open Championship leaderboard.

Top 2023 Open Championship predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Open Championship 2023: Jordan Spieth (18-1), the 2017 British Open champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles at Royal Liverpool and doesn't even crack the top 10. Spieth competed at the Open in 2014 when it was held at this same course, but he finished a disappointing 36th. That is his second-worst Open Championship finish across his nine starts at the event.

Since winning the 2017 Open Championship, Spieth has just two other victories, neither of which is a major. Since that 2017 win, he has more major finishes outside the top 25 (12) than inside (11). With a season ranking of 136th in driving accuracy percentage (55.78%), Spieth's game isn't where it needs to be heading into the Open Championship 2023, and his past major struggles make him one to avoid in 2023 Open Championship bets, according to the model. See which golfers to fade here.

The model has also locked in its projection for Rory McIlroy (9-1), the No. 3-ranked player in the world and the 2014 Open champion. The four-time major winner should feel comfortable on the course after winning there in 2014, but McIlroy hasn't won a major title since.

He has performed well in the majority of recent majors, however, with top-10 finishes in six of his seven majors over the last two years while also missing the cut at the 2023 Masters. McIlroy has 17 finishes inside the top 10 over his last 31 majors while missing the cut six times over that span. The 34-year-old former No. 1 golfer looks to become just the 21st golfer to win five majors when he competes at the 2023 Open Championship. See where every golfer finishes here.

On the other hand, the model has examined Jon Rahm's (15-2) chances to win his second major championship of the season. Rahm opened the 2022-23 PGA Tour season in dominant form. He finished in the top eight in his first seven events, including three victories. After a rougher March, including having to withdraw from the Players Championship, Rahm won the Masters.

However, the No. 2 golfer in the world has slowed down since, failing to win any of his six tournaments since taking the green jacket and only logging two top-10 finishes. Rahm missed the cut at the Travelers Championship, his first missed cut not due to injury since September 2021, in his most recent tournament. The 28-year-old is second on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, including ranking third in tee-to-green and approaching the green. Will we see the golfer that dominated the first half of the season or a Rahm finishing toward the middle of the pack at the 2023 Open Championship in the final major of the year? See the full 2023 Open Championship projections from the model here.

How to make 2023 Open Championship picks

The model is also targeting five golfers with Open Championship odds 2023 of 20-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's 2023 Open Championship picks here. 

So, who will win the Open Championship 2023, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Open Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Open Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed nine golf majors, including this year's Masters.

2023 Open Championship odds, field

Jon Rahm +750
Scottie Scheffler +900
Rory McIlroy +900
Brooks Koepka +1400
Jordan Spieth +1800
Viktor Hovland +1800
Cameron Smith +2000
Collin Morikawa +2200
Xander Schauffele +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Cameron Young +2800
Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
Tyrrell Hatton +2800
Justin Thomas +2800
Tommy Fleetwood +3000
Dustin Johnson +3000
Tony Finau +3500
Max Homa +3500
Shane Lowry +4000
Bryson DeChambeau +4000
Joohyung (Tom) Kim +4000
Justin Rose +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Rickie Fowler +4500
Sungjae Im +5000
Hideki Matsuyama +5000
Sahith Theegala +6000
Corey Conners +7000
Joaquin Niemann +7000
Paul Casey +7500
Billy Horschel +8000
Adam Scott +8000
Marc Leishman +8000
Ryan Fox +8000
Robert MacIntyre +8000
Russell Henley +8000
Patrick Reed +8500
Abraham Ancer +8500
Aaron Wise +9000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000
Sergio Garcia +10000
Thomas Pieters +10000
Seamus Power +10000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Louis Oosthuizen +10000
Tom Hoge +10000
Phil Mickelson +10000
Adrian Meronk +12500
Lucas Herbert +12500
Gary Woodland +12500
Francesco Molinari +12500
Keith Mitchell +12500
Padraig Harrington +15000
Brian Harman +15000
KH Lee +15000
Harold Varner +15000
Mackenzie Hughes +15000
Sepp Straka +17500
JJ Spaun +20000
J.T. Poston +20000
Lee Westwood +20000
Danny Willett +20000
Cameron Tringale +20000
Luke List +25000
Stewart Cink +30000
Trey Mullinax +30000
Zach Johnson +30000
Darren Clarke +50000
Ernie Els +50000