2023 Food City Dirt Race: NASCAR at Bristol Odds, Picks & Predictions

Weeks go by, and before you know it, we’re already seven races into the NASCAR stock car racing season.

This week, the sport is giving us some spice as the Cup Series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway for the third installment of the Food City Dirt Race. Like it was with the Busch Light Clash earlier this year and how the Chicago street race will be down the road, this somewhat gimmicky race can be challenging to handicap but should be a fun ride nonetheless.

The cars will hit the dirt today for practice (if the rain holds off). While on Saturday, we have four 15-lap heat races to decide the qualifying order for this Sunday night shootout.

Here are the data sets we’re considering heading to Tennessee:

• Bristol Dirt track performance & history
• Bristol regular 2022 total speed rankings*
• 2023 short track total speed rankings (Phoenix & Richmond)*
• Overall dirt experience
• Recent performance & current standings

We’re looking for a bounceback as our hopes of cashing back-to-back outrights and T5s went up in smoke last week in Richmond when Christopher Bell put William Byron into the fence on a late restart after Byron had dominated the race.

Let’s get back on track with our best bets for Bristol:

All bet recommendations are for 1u and courtesy of Barstool Sportsbook.

Top 5: Kyle Larson (+115)

From dominating multiple Chili Bowls (A high-profile dirt race) to racing in Bills Gap, Tenn. just this week, Kyle Larson is the best dirt racer in the Cup Series, hands down. He finished fourth here last year and looked fast in 2021 before being wrecked out.

Finding this at slight plus-money feels like a value, especially considering the No. 5 had a top-five finish and total speed ranking at the regular Bristol race last season. Larson has shown overall speed on short tracks this season (second-fastest at Richmond and third-fastest at Phoenix). I expect more of the same here on the dirt Sunday.

Top 10: Brad Keselowski (+150)

The numbers, both in the placement and outright market, are far too favorable on Brad Keselowski not to take a shot. While Keselowski has yet to finish in the top 10 on dirt, he has two 11th-place finishes, one coming when he struggled last year with his switch to Roush Fenway Keselowski (FRK) Racing.

In addition, Keselowski was the seventh-fastest driver late in a run here last year, charging up from his average starting position of 19th. Keselowski has three wins on the regular Bristol surface and was top five in total speed rankings on the asphalt here last year. He’s had top-10 speed at both short tracks this season, Phoenix and Richmond, and should have it again on Sunday.

Matchup: Alex Bowman (+139) vs. Chase Briscoe (-182)

Chase Briscoe is another Cup Series driver with a lot of dirt experience. However, he has yet to finish better than 20th at Bristol Dirt and has a 20.1 average finish this season. The No. 14 hasn’t been particularly fast anywhere this season, so it’s a bit surprising to see him so heavily favorited.

On the other hand, Alex Bowman leads NASCAR with a 7.1 average finish this season and has six T10s in seven races, including at short tracks Phoenix and Richmond. The No. 48 finished sixth here last season and, despite critics, Bowman is good on unusual tracks like this, finishing top five at the Busch Light Clash and COTA. I think he’s in store for another T10 this week and to also beat Bricoe head-to-head.

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.