2023 Genesis Invitational Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Genesis Invitational. Use the PrizePicks referral codeGRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

After an incredible tournament in Phoenix and another win for Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour moves forward this week to another elevated event. The Genesis Invitational receives the same treatment as the WM Phoenix Open with nearly every qualified PGA Tour member in the OWGR top 100 saying yes to Tiger Woods. Speaking of Woods, Tigers makes his return to golf at his event, teeing it up at the beautiful Riviera Country Club. You think he might get a gallery? Let’s preview this week’s golf betting odds as well as the course, statistics, and some golfers to watch.

Genesis Invitational Betting Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – February 14th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 40/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Genesis Invitational:

• 2022 – Joaquin Niemann (-19)
• 2021 – Max Homa (-12)
• 2020 – Adam Scott (-11)
• 2019 – J.B. Holmes (-14)
• 2018 – Bubba Watson (-12)
• 2017 – Dustin Johnson (-17)
• 2016 – Bubba Watson (-15)

What is there to say? This field is loaded. We won’t see a more stacked field until a major as every attendee that said yes to Tiger Woods’ invitation is one of the top golfers in the world. Highlighted by the top three players in the world, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Scottie Scheffler, we should not be surprised if anybody from the top of the odds board is victorious.

Joaquin Niemann will not be back to defend his title but the field is filled with plenty of past winners. Adam Scott is possibly the most successful player at this venue with two victories at the Genesis and several other great finishes. Hideki Matsuyama also has a great past as does Jon Rahm. Max Homa, on a tear over the last couple of seasons, won this event two years ago. Cameron Young is coming off of a runner up from last season. There are so many angles with so much talent and so much money on the line. This should be a good time.

Of course, this guy named Tiger Woods will be returning to play in his event this weekend. Riviera is not an easy walk so Tiger must feel confident enough in his health to play this event ahead of the major season. Tiger’s outright price will not be worth it and he will struggle to compete in a field of this strength.
Maybe a made cut bet is a possibility because of his creativity around the greens but I think we should be focused on fading Tiger in matchups against golfers in better form.

Let’s get on to Riviera and some statistics.

2023 Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

• Course: Riviera CC
• Date: February 14 – 17
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,322
• Greens: Poa

Riviera Country Club proves to be a true test for golf’s elite despite not being especially long. Series of undulating fairways and green complexes, doglegs, and tons of sand for players to make golf shots. While distance and driving are helpful, Riviera’s kikuyu grass will not force a bomb and gauge approach. Instead, players must be accurate and position themselves to hit greens.

Around-the-green play will be very important this weekend. Augusta National and Quail Hollow are often comped to this course because of the required creativity around the tricky green complexes. While the layout isn’t the same, players with plenty of shots in their bag around their green will stay on the better side of par throughout the weekend.

Over the last 11 seasons, the cut line for this event has been over par. Saving par and avoiding bogeys will be vital to make the cut this weekend and fight for the $3.6 Million top prize. Last season, Joaquin Niemann was incredible from tee-to-green in a very abnormal -19 performance. History would suggest our winner will more likely be in the -12 to -15 range.

The biggest bucket of Par 4 holes will be from the 450-500 yard range. For this reason, we should dial up the 150-175 yard range when thinking about proximity. Unsurprisingly, Rory McIlroy leads the field over his last 36 rounds on strokes gained on this Par 4 length. However, Sam Ryder, Max Homa, and Tyrell Hatton round out the top four. Homa, with plenty of success at Riviera, should be very comfortable in California as a previous winner.

Collin Morikawa leads the field in proximity from 150-175 yards but missed the cut in Phoenix last weekend. Morikawa otherwise had two top fives this season and will look to return to form this week. Cameron Young, albeit not in the greatest recent form, finds himself in the top ten in this category. With his driving ability, we shouldn’t be surprised if Young repeats his success from last season and finally breaks out with his first victory.

We will likely be able to make a case for anyone in the top 40 but we will focus on SG: Approach, SG: OTT, Bogey Avoidance, ARG, and P4 450-500 yards.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Jon Rahm +750

Am I recommending an outright bet on Jon Rahm? Not necessarily. However, can we deny this absolute tear Jon Rahm has been on this season. The man is a top-ten or victory machine with another strong showing in Phoenix. With his current form, we cannot look past Jon Rahm even in a stacked field.

Do I suggest we bet Jon outright? I probably won’t because I don’t love spending a ton of units at the top of my card. That said, should we look for the best possible matchup prices and top finisher prices? At this point, I think the answer is yes. Keep Rahm in consideration for DFS and prop-betting purposes.

Cameron Young +3300

Cameron Young finished runner-up as as debutant last season and seems on the verge of a breakout victory with every tournament he plays. We could see a Scheffler-esque stretch for the young bomber soon and it often pains me to not include Young on my betting card. We will shop around pre-tournament for the best outright price but don’t be shocked if Young makes our picks article.

Young is phenomenal off-the-tee and sits atop most in our key proximity range. He disappointed in Phoenix despite making the cut. However, we have seen Young contend in the toughest fields. We won’t be shocked to see him in contention on Sunday.

Will Zalatoris +4000

Speaking of contending in tough fields, does any young player show out better at big events than Willy Z? Unlikely. Zalatoris skipped the WM Phoenix Open but returns at a very palatable price at Riviera.

With two top-20 finishes in his only two starts at the event, Zalatoris already displayed the tools to ball-strike his way around the famed course. Zalatoris is perpetually in contention at majors and is second-to-very-few with his approach play. In a field of 133, Zalatoris might be one of the better values on the board at the time of this writing.

Hideki Matsuyama +4000

Driving the golf ball? Check. Ball striking? Check. Course history? Check.

Hideki has plenty of success at this event and keep slipping down the odds board before of field strength. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Matsuyama is at 55/1 at the time of this writing. A player of his caliber with his history at Riviera should not feature this price.

Hideki is a very intriguing one-and-done option with so many players focused on the top of the board. We could get him at very low ownership where a win would really vault us up leaderboards. Even if we don’t lock him in for that format, he should be considered as a possible bet this weekend.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.