Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds, picks: Advanced computer MLB model releases selections for NLCS Game 1 matchup

The 2023 National League Championship Series begins when the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Philadelphia Phillies for Game 1 at 8:07 p.m. ET on Monday. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Philadelphia as a -170 favorite on the money line, while the over/under is set at 7.5 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our MLB odds page). Before making any Diamondbacks vs. Phillies picks, you NEED to check out the MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the second week of the 2023 MLB playoffs 92-74 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns!

The model knows the Diamondbacks are rolling into this series. Arizona has an outstanding .877 OPS with 13 home runs in five playoff games. The Diamondbacks are averaging 6.0 runs per game with more than a stolen base per game. Arizona also led the league with 14 triples this season with top-three marks in stolen bases (166) and strikeout avoidance (1,247).

The model also knows the Phillies have a true ace in Zack Wheeler. He has a 2.08 ERA in the 2023 playoffs and a 2.59 ERA in his career. During this playoff run, Wheeler has 18 strikeouts and only one walk in 13 innings, and he ranked in the top eight of the National League in innings pitched (192.0) and ERA (3.61) during the regular season. Wheeler was also in the top three of the league with a 1.078 WHIP and 5.44 strikeouts per nine innings.

Now, it has set its sights on Diamondbacks vs. Phillies. We can tell you the model is leaning Over the total, and it also says one team has all the value! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any MLB picks.