2023 U.S. Open predictions: Three long shot bets at LACC

Journal Inquirer
 
2023 U.S. Open predictions: Three long shot bets at LACC

The U.S. Open has been about the stars lately.

If you look back at the last 10 winners of this major, you’ll see plenty of household names like Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Rose. Stars usually lift this trophy.

Even the two surprise winners over the last decade, Gary Woodland and Martin Kaymer, had built plenty of momentum in the buildup to their win and were firmly on the radar of golf fans. Here are the last 10 U.S. Open Winners and their odds:

  1. 2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000)

  2. 2021: Jon Rahm (+1000)

  3. 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (+2500)

  4. 2019: Gary Woodland (+6000)

  5. 2018: Brooks Koepka (+2500)

  6. 2017: Brooks Koepka (+3000)

  7. 2016: Dustin Johnson (+1200)

  8. 2015: Jordan Spieth (+800)

  9. 2014: Martin Kaymer (+4000)

  10. 2013: Justin Rose (+2500)

But just because it’s been the elite players who have won the U.S. Open in recent history doesn’t mean that there isn’t some logic to throwing a couple of darts on a few huge prices. This tournament is always chaotic and that volatility is never a bad thing for longshots.

But just because it’s been the elite players who have won the U.S. Open in recent history doesn’t mean that there isn’t some logic to throwing a couple of darts on a few huge prices. This tournament is always chaotic and that volatility is never a bad thing for long shots. s that we’re dealing with a new course this week.

Los Angeles Country Club hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour event since 1940 and the lack of insight into how the course will play just adds to the volatility.

Whether you want to play them as an outright winner, back them to finish inside the top-20 or use them in DFS lineups, these are a few triple-digit longshots to have circled at LACC.

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We’re may not be certain about how Los Angeles Country Club will play and what kind of skillset will excel here, but we can make some safe assumptions. First and foremost, we can feel pretty confident that it will be a tough tee-to-green test and mistakes will be punished.

One way to overcome those errors is by being a wizard with your putter. Enter Denny McCarthy.

Widely considered the best putter on the PGA Tour, McCarthy could stand above the rest of the field on these tricky greens, which are massive and feature a lot of level-changes.And as important as McCarthy’s putting will be this week, it’s not the only thing he has going for him. He’s also in terrific form.

The 30-year-old lost to Viktor Hovland in a playoff at the Memorial in his last start and has six top-20 finishes in his last 11 stroke-play events on the PGA Tour.

McCarthy could end up as a trendy pick in this range, but that shouldn’t stop you from joining in on the fun.

Although LACC is still somewhat of a mystery, looking at last month’s PGA Championship at Oak Hill could provide some helpful hints. It was a beast of a tournament that saw plenty of elite golfers struggle and that gave it a U.S. Open-like feel.Kurt Kitayama excelled at Oak Hill.

The 30-year-old was a deep longshot, roughly in the 300/1 range, and managed to keep it together for all four rounds to finish T4.

Like anybody at this number, Kitayama is a boom-or-bust play. He’s missed the cut in five of his last 10 tournaments, but he’s got a win against a top-notch field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T4 at the PGA Championship in that span, too. He’s the World No. 20 and is 250/1. That sounds good to me.

Like Kitayama, the thing that got me digging in on Sepp Straka is that he put together an impressive performance at the PGA Championship. Straka finished T7 at Oak Hill and shot two rounds in the 60′s, which was no small feat that weekend.

Including the PGA Championship, Straka has made three cuts on the spin and is coming off a T16 at the Memorial, which was another tournament that required players to grind through a rough weekend. He may just fancy these conditions.

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