2023 Valero Texas Open odds, expert picks and sleepers: Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama among best bets

The 2023 Valero Texas Open may not feature the biggest names in golf, but it will enjoy some great drama as a win here is the last chance for players who aren’t qualified for the Masters to book their trip. Last year, J.J. Spaun won over a charging Matt Jones and Matt Kuchar to lock up his first Masters appearance. All eyes will be on Rickie Fowler at this year’s Valero Texas Open as he tries to return to Augusta National for the first time since 2020. While Fowler will have a ton of pressure on him all week, the rest of the field will feel free to go for it with nothing much to lose before Sunday.

The field will take on TPC San Antonio, which has hosted the Valero Texas Open since 2010. TPC San Antonio is a Par 72 that measures more than 7,400 yards. Tee-to-green play has been the key to contending at TPC San Antonio over the years with players like Corey Conners breaking through for his first PGA Tour win here. Some other stats that will factor into my model this week will be strokes gained around the green and proximity to the fairway. Players who miss the fairway by a shorter distance tend to play well here. You will see players like Kuchar and Si Woo Kim excel in that particular statistic, and they both have excellent records here.

I really like the pricing for this week in DFS. The top players are fairly priced with Tyrrell Hatton leading the pack at a reasonable $10,900. Hideki Matsuyama carries the highest upside when it comes to win shares. Still, he did look like he was struggling with an injury at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play before he ultimately forfeited his final match to Max Homa. He was grabbing at his shoulder and rotating it a bunch in the first few days and that may stem from him overcompensating due to other injured areas. There are a lot of interesting options in the $6k-7k range to save some of your budgets this week so it should be fun building some teams.

The weather can always be a bit dicey in Texas and the wind will be the major factor on Thursday and Friday. Striking the ball pure and controlling your trajectory will be paramount, with wind gusts reaching 30 mph at some points. There’s a good mix of forgotten PGA tour veterans, players from other tours, and PGA Tour rookies that should draw your attention this week. Can Charley Hoffman get his game back together and treat TPC San Antonio like his very own ATM machine again? Does Padraig Harrington’s amazing form on the PGA Tour Champions carry over to the regular PGA Tour? Which rookie out of Cole Hammer and Pierceson Coody will make a statement this week?

Betting Slip

Hideki Matsuyama +2500 is the definition of a gamble this week. He withdrew due to injury at the Dell Technologies Match Play and has struggled for most of the season with nagging injuries. I think it’s a good spot to take Matsuyama because of how he looked at The Players Championship just a few weeks ago. He gained 7.86 strokes from tee to green that week. He is also excellent around the greens which is a key stat this week.

Matt Kuchar +3000 has made five straight cuts here and has gained over 28 strokes on the field in his appearances. His last three finishes at TPC San Antonio were all T12 or better. He has two top 10s in stroke play events this year at the Sony Open and the Genesis Invitational. He missed the cut at The Players Championship, but that was mostly down to a balky putter. He made it out of his group at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play despite not striking the ball quite as well as he has been all year. He had an excellent chance to win here last year and is very comfortable maneuvering his way around this golf course.

Ryan Fox +4000 has four straight top 20s in stroke play events. He’s been excellent from tee to green for a long while as he has averaged 4.79 strokes gained tee to green over his last six tournaments.

Ben Griffin +4500 hasn’t been quite as good at ball striking since the Honda Classic, but he keeps putting up solid finishes. He’s been excellent around the green and with his putter over his last four stroke play events after his driver and irons carried him for the previous weeks. He didn’t fair too well at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play and will be happy to get back to a stroke play event. I would hate to finally get off the Ben Griffin train before he finally cashes in a win.

Nicolai Hojgaard +5000 is a big time up and comer on the world golf stage. He hits it a mile off the tee and his iron shots drop down on pins like they’ve been dropped from someone hovering above the green. He has two top five finishes in his last three starts worldwide. He has also finished T12 or better in four out of his last six starts. It seems like every book has decided to just place him at 50-1 and hope for the best while I’m excited by the number.

Sleepers

Byeong Hun An +8000 has made six out of his last seven cuts, with his WD at the Arnold Palmer Invitational his only paycheck missed. I think he’s had a solid first season back after earning his PGA Tour card back on the Korn Ferry Tour last season. He’s been good around and on the greens lately as he gained over 10 strokes combined on the fields at The Players Champion and the Valspar.

Akshay Bhatia +10000 could not follow up on an excellent second round at the Corales Puntacana where he shot a 63, but that won’t deter me this week. Bhatia has something special when you watch him play. He has an excellent swing that looks like it’s getting max power out of his slight frame while also stalking every putt as if he’s going to make it.

Erik van Rooyen +10000 has played better this year after struggling last year. I’m unsure if it was all the taunts over his joggers. He’s made six out of his last seven cuts and has two top 10s in that run. He gained over seven strokes on approach at the Valspar which is why I think it’s worth adding him to your card this week.

DFS Plays

Hideki Matsuyama $10,500 See above for why I will be playing him in GPPs this week. I’m avoiding him in cash games with the injury question hanging over his head. Make sure you check out Hatton’s projected ownership as he may end up being the play in this price range if people skip him after his struggles at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play.

Rickie Fowler $10,200 is in play for me this week, but I will definitely be under the ownership numbers. I like Si Woo Kim a lot more and he’s $500 cheaper. Since the Fortinet Championship in late September, he’s become a different player. He averaged 2.86 strokes gained on approach in nine tournaments where strokes gained were tracked. In the only tournaments not involved, he finished T2 at the Zozo Championship and narrowly missed making it out of his group in the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play.

Si Woo Kim $9,700 has made the cut here in five straight while gaining over 30 strokes on the field. His only missed cut since mid-August 2022 was at the Genesis Invitational, where he struggled with his irons and short game. His putting has improved with his new putter and stroke so I only expect him to improve on what he has already done here.

Chris Kirk $9,300 has suffered a bit of a lull since winning the Honda Classic. The putter has been ice-cold in his last two outings. I expect him to bounce back this week. He may be a sneaky play over Kuchar if the ownership numbers get too high.

Matt Kuchar $9,200 See above.

Ryan Fox $9,000 See above.

Ben Griffin $8,700 See above.

Matt Wallace $8,500 followed up his top 10 at the Valspar where more notice was given to his argument with his caddie than to his fine play on the course, with a win at the Corales Puntacana where he shot a final-round 66 to win. Wallace has been a winner before on the DP World Tour so he shouldn’t struggle with the post-win hangover that most first-time PGA Tour winners end up with. He finished third to Jordan Spieth here a few years ago, so he will have some confidence coming in. His putting has long held him back, but he overcame it with tee to green play.

Cameron Davis $8,300 at this price seems like a steal. He’s coming off a T6 at The Players Championship where he was in contention to win and a fine 2-1 performance in the group stage at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. I wouldn’t look too far back at his stats because he has struggled on approach for a while.

Nicolai Hojgaard $8,000 See above.

Aaron Rai $7,900 comes into this week fourth in the field in strokes gained tee to green and seventh in strokes gained ball striking over his last 36 rounds. He is also 11th in the field in strokes gained around the green in that same time frame.

Sam Ryder $7,800 is being carried by his short game and putting. He’s first in the field in strokes gained putting over his last 36 rounds. He’s 12th in strokes gained total over that same time frame. Ryder has lost over 13 strokes on approach to the field over his last four tournaments. I think many people will like Ryder this week, but I would rather go with Rai or pay up for Hojgaard.

Nick Taylor $7,600 has made the cut here in three out of his last five tries. When he’s right he is a ball striker that should enjoy this course. The reason I’m going to use him in some lineups is he’s been very good around the greens lately and gained over 6.6 strokes tee to green at the Valspar.

Byeong Hun An $7,400 See above.

Erik van Rooyen $7,200 See above.

Ben Martin $7,100 has averaged 3.42 strokes gained ball striking over his last four measured tournaments. He finished T8 at the Corales Puntacana which doesn’t factor into his statistics.

Akshay Bhatia $7,000 See above.

Padraig Harrington $7,000 made the cut at both the Honda Classic and the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the PGA Tour while also contending almost every time he tees it up on the PGA Tour Champions. I don’t know if he has as much upside as other 6k guys, but I think he might be safer than many. I can’t wait to see what his ownership number comes in at.

Kazuki Higa $6,900 is super talented and this could be a nice coming-out party for the young man. He struggled a little bit in his last PGA Tour start fading back to 72nd on the weekend at the Sony Open, but he’s been on fire in his last three worldwide as he has finished T13 or better in each.

Lucas Glover $6,900 has finished T18 or better in his last three outings here and is coming off of two straight made cuts. There’s nothing to love about his game lately besides his excellent play around the greens which matches up well here.

Dylan Frittelli $6,800 has three straight made cuts here, with two of them being top 20 finishes. He has struggled mightily on approach lately losing more than 4 strokes in two straight. He is a volatile player who sometimes pops. He lives in Texas and seems to really like it here so I’m going to put him in one or two GPP lineups and hope for the best.

Kevin Chappell $6,700 is a former winner here who also has a runner-up to his name at this course. He has struggled with back injuries which have sapped his power the last few years, but he seems to be in fine form as he has two straight top 16 finishes at the Puerto Rico Open and the Corales Puntacana.

Andrew Novak $6,700 has made eight out of his last 11 cuts with five top 29 finishes. He’s not terrible in any one category and not great in any one category either.

Matthias Schwab $6,600 has made four out of his last five cuts with a fine T8 finish at the Corales Puntacana in his last outing. He also finished T8 here on his only try. His stats are ugly, but he’s worth a flyer in GPP lineups.

Ryan Gerard $6,600 finished fourth at the Honda Classic and T11 at the Puerto Rico Open. He’s come back down to earth a bit since then with a T71 at the Valspar and a missed cut at the Corales Puntacana, but I won’t give up on him yet.

Michael Kim $6,500 struggled terribly in the fall after getting his PGA Tour card back through the Korn Ferry Tour. He missed his first five cuts of the year. He has only missed three out of his next 10 cuts and has been much better with his irons and around the greens. This course has never fit his game though as he’s lost over 21 strokes to the field in his career.

Ricky Barnes $6,300 and his new career as a real estate investor were all the talk of the Corales Puntacana as Barnes dialed back the clocks a bit to make a run up the leaderboard. It feels like yesterday he was touted as the next young gun on the PGA Tour who was going to challenge Tiger Woods. He even outplayed Tiger for a round as an amateur at the Masters. While his career wasn’t what many imagined it would be, he won over $8 million during his PGA Tour career. His last top 10 before his T7 at the Corales Puntacana was back in 2017 at the Sanderson Farms. He’s made the cut here in his last three tries, and he was the 54-hole leader back in 2016. Call me crazy, but give me Barnes in at least one lineup so that I can say the wrong Ricky is winning.

One and Done

Standings

Andrew DeWitt: $7,339,166.22 (12 of 14 cuts made, 1 winner)

John Hayes: $3,787,388.37 (12 of 14 cuts made)

Dennis Esser: $2,927,756 (11 of 14 cuts made) 

Esser: I knew Matt Fitzpatrick wasn’t going to win his group at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play last week because of the ball striking form he was in. I just missed by a wide margin on who was going to prevail from the group, as last year’s Valero Texas Open winner J.J. Spaun was able to sweep the group and keep Sahith Theegala from making some serious money. The purse is only $8.9 million this week and the field isn’t very strong with many players resting up for the Masters next week. Matt Kuchar and Tyrrell Hatton were my first thoughts when I looked at the field, but I ultimately decided to take Ryan Fox after going back and forth between he and Nicolai Hojgaard for a while.

Hayes: I’m going with Rickie Fowler. He’s been playing at an elite level again, and the outright odds this week reflect him being one of the best players in the field. The challenge of trying to punch his ticket to the Masters next week adds an extra layer of motivation. I’m a big fan of what Fowler has done on the greens this season. His new putter looks automatic inside 7 feet.

DeWitt: My pick this week is Matt Kuchar. He’s played 10 times at TPC San Antonio, hasn’t missed the cut and has finished in the top 25 seven times. His form is pretty good after getting out of group play at Match Play. It’s another low purse week so I’m using a golfer I doubt I’ll want to use again this season.