RBC Heritage odds, expert picks, sleepers: Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa and Tom Kim among best bets

The PGA Tour heads up the east coast from Augusta, Georgia to Hilton Head, South Carolina, for the RBC Heritage. This year’s edition of the RBC Heritage is an elevated event, which means it will draw a powerful field even though it is following the season’s first major championship. Rory McIlroy will be sitting out his second, elevated event of 2023 after his disappointing missed cut at the Masters with no specific reason given. Jon Rahm captured his second major and became the fourth Spaniard to win at Augusta.  Some injuries included Tiger Woods having to withdraw due to plantar fasciitis and Will Zalatoris opting for a second back surgery that will sideline him for the rest of the season.

I was worried about how the 2023 Masters would be received by viewers with the return of the LIV golfers and the continued weather delays. Still, to my surprise, it has been reported that Sunday’s telecast was the most watched Sunday of golf in over five years. Jim Nantz was his usual self in the booth with some stellar play-by-play with my personal highlight being when he brought up Jordan Spieth hooking his tee shot on 18 to the left when he was trying to chase down Patrick Reed a few years ago and right on cue Spieth turned it over into the trees on the left with one hole left to put some pressure on Jon Rahm. He also set up Trevor Immelman to shine in a few moments which proved to be difficult at times with the pace of play being poor during the final round. Immelman did well for his first major championship as a color commentator.

Viktor Hovland’s back nine during his third round allowed me to hedge my Hovland winner’s tickets with Jon Rahm, which made for a profitable Sunday after having to sit on my hands all week while I was on vacation. It was clear that Hovland and Brooks Koepka struggled with the pace of play of Patrick Cantlay during the final round. All that time waiting on the tee box for Cantlay to play his second shots led Koepka to contemplate that he hadn’t made a birdie since the 8th hole during his third round. Rahm was able to keep it together while dealing with the same issue, and his caddie should probably be receiving more credit than he did. I don’t even remember the broadcast mentioning Adam Hayes’ name; never mind commending him on keeping Rahm so calm.

If this weren’t an elevated event with the new PGA Tour rules, I doubt we would see Jon Rahm this week at the RBC Heritage, but here we are. The stacked field will be facing a much different test than they saw at Augusta National Golf Club. Harbour Town is a Par 71 that measures a little over 7,100 yards that features tree-lined tight fairways through the 16th hole, which for some reason, has a tree right in the middle of the fairway. The 17th and 18th holes finally open up and, of course, bring the wind into play to wreak havoc with the end of your round. The greens are very small so precise iron play will be key. Imagination and being able to shape your shots are really important. When looking at past results it’s important to weigh the strength of the field when those finishes took place.

Betting Slip

Patrick Cantlay +1200 comes into this week fourth in the field in strokes gained ball striking, and strokes gained tee to green over his last 36 rounds, but those numbers jump up when you factor in course history, Par 71 scoring average, and short courses. Instead of being fourth or fifth in the model, he jumps to a very close second. The interviews about his slow play will be interesting this week, but I don’t expect Patty Ice to be affected too much. I wish this number was a little better, but I have to go with my model.

Collin Morikawa +1800 gained strokes across the board at the Masters, according to Rickrungood.com. He even gained strokes putting after struggling for much of the year in that category. He has lost a ton of strokes at Harbour Town Golf Links over the past few years, but he has gained over 10 strokes from tee to green in each of the past two seasons. He’s on the verge of a win with his current form, and he comes to a course that should fit him well.

Justin Thomas +2500 is on my betting card for the number alone. He lost confidence in his putter when he missed his short par putt on No. 5 during his second round and he never recovered from it when he came back after play was suspended. Before imploding after play was suspended, he looked to be in control of his tee-to-green game which was trending in the right direction coming into the Masters.

Tom Kim +3500 burst onto the scene when he won twice after getting his chance on the PGA Tour. This year has been a learning experience for Kim, but he has shown glimpses of the ball striker that scared the season pros last year. His putting has looked improved lately and he was a misplayed shot here and there from really contending at the Masters. His game should fit Harbour Town Golf Links really well. It’s a tough call for me to back Kim at this price or get a slightly lower price on Shane Lowry (+3000) who has such good course history here.

J.T. Poston +6000 is a great putter who has terrific hands around the green. He can get hot with his irons which he showed in 2022 when he finished T2 at the Travelers followed by his win at the John Deere Classic as he gained almost 16 strokes ball striking combined in those two tournaments. He’s been on a good run of form lately with a T10 at Valspar and winning his group in the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. He finished a respectable T34 in his Masters appearance as well. I wish he was at a little bit of a better number but his three top 8 finishes in the last four years weren’t ignored by the books.

Justin Rose +5500 (Shop elsewhere up to +8000) hasn’t played here since he finished T14 in 2020, but that shouldn’t keep you from backing him this week. Rose has a win under his belt already this year at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and played well last week at the Masters. When you factor in short courses, Par 71s, and small greens Rose jumps way up in the model.

Sleepers

Webb Simpson +10000 (Shop elsewhere up to +12500) was an auto play here for a good number of years, but his game had fallen off the last few years due to injury and a lack of confidence. He recently split from his long-time caddie so there could be some growing pains on that front. When he is right, this course fits him perfectly. He has been a lot better lately with his irons and his putter. He has gained 3.6 strokes or more on approach in three out of his last five tournaments, and he has gained 2.32 strokes or more putting in three straight. The numbers over the whole year are scary, but if you just factor in recent form like his T7 at Valspar then there is reason to believe he could be a feel-good story this week.

Seamus Power +15000 has a T6 here back in 2019, but hasn’t been back since. He isn’t on the roll he was in the fall when he went first, T3, and T5 in three straight tournaments. He has shown signs of getting back into a groove with his irons which is nice, but he will need to be better off the tee if he is going to contend this week.

DFS Plays

Scottie Scheffler $11,000 was extremely frustrated with his play all week at the Masters. He had a lot on his shoulders as the defending champion with all of the responsibilities that go with that, but none of that got to his tee to green game. He was tremendous up until he rocketed an iron over the 12th green. His putter has been cold for a while now, but it hasn’t affected the rest of his game. He’s still splitting fairways and crushing it when given the chance. He has lost over 6.5 strokes putting combined in his last two outings. He’s too good to let that trend continue. He has zero course history here while Cantlay and Morikawa will be extremely popular due to there’s. I think I’m talking myself into Scheffler more and more.

Patrick Cantlay $10,300 See above.

Collin Morikawa $10,000 See above.

Viktor Hovland $9,800 may be disappointed with his T7 at the Masters, but I’m not. He showed me a lot this past week both on and off the course. His short game continued to give him some issues including his lag putting which will surely have to improve if he were going to win on a course with big greens. Hovland won’t have to deal with difficult breaking 70 foot putts this week. Instead, he’s going to have a ton of straight putts up the hill for birdie if he can control his ball the way he did the last few weeks. Huge price jump this week, but I’m not scared off.

Tony Finau $9,400 was a very popular play last week at $8,900 and he hurt more teams than he helped at those ownership numbers. His price jumping up to $9,400 on a course where he hasn’t played a ton of golf should see his ownership plummet and give us a nice chance to use him as a contrarian play. He is inside the top six in my model and that surprised me a bit.

Justin Thomas $8,900 is priced so low that I’m going to use him in some lineups. He has too much win upside not to. I would be careful going all in or using him in cash games, but I see the upside in GPPs.

Tom Kim $8,500 will be in play for me this week, but at this price, I’m seeing some value plays under him that might be able to squeeze some other players into my lineups. An interesting way to build would be to have Kim as your second highest priced player while the majority will try to fit at least two guys from the 11K to 9K range.

Shane Lowry $8,300 has gained over 8 strokes tee to green in two out of his last three tournaments. He has two third-place finishes here in the last four years. I can see pivoting to use Tommy Fleetwood a bit at $8,100, but Lowry is definitely in play for cash games in this price range.

Corey Conners $7,800 was very popular in DFS at the Masters and it burned everyone. Maybe we can blame a win hangover from his win at the Valero Texas Open or we can say his short game finally caught up to him. He lost over 8 strokes with his short game in his two rounds. He has two straight top 12 finishes here, and his game sets up much better for this course. I think he’s a very interesting play to go against the recency bias from his missed cut.

Justin Rose $7,700 See above.

Matt Kuchar $7,700 is coming off a third-place finish at the Valero Texas Open where he had a chance to win. He has excellent course history here, with two top-three finishes in the last four years. The field is much stronger this year so I wouldn’t count on a top 5 finish, but I can still see a valuable top 20 at this price.

Wyndham Clark $7,600 has four straight-made cuts here with mediocre finishes over the last five years. He is in excellent form with 12 straight made cuts and two straight top 6 finishes. Most of those finishes were against weaker fields so I’m a little concerned about playing him at this price. He is extremely hot with his irons gaining 3.57 strokes or more on approach in five of his last six measured tournaments.

Webb Simpson $7,400 See above.

Billy Hoschel $7,300 has made the cut here in four out of his last five tournaments with a T5 back in 2018. He has struggled with his driver and irons since the October CJ Cup. He lost more than 10 strokes to the field from tee to green at the Masters. This price might entice some people to play Horschel, but I am staying away because of the current form.

J.T. Poston $7,300 See above.

Ben Martin $7,100 is in great form coming into this week. He has four top-13 finishes in his last six tournaments. He has gained 15.85 strokes ball striking in his last two measured tournaments.

Aaron Rai $7,000 was one of my favorite plays at the Valero Texas Open, and he will be one of my favorite plays at this price tag this week as well. He has made six out of his last seven cuts, and he’s been very accurate off the tee.

Sam Stevens $7,000 is in the form of his life, coming off of two straight top 3 finishes, but he will be a little too popular for me this week. He still scatters shott off the tee, even though his iron play has been excellent. I will sprinkle him in GPPs, but I trust Rai more this week.

Brendon Todd $6,900 is a safe play this week. I always thought he fit this course but hasn’t put it all together here. He has improved each of the last three years, with a T26 being his best finish.

Joel Dahmen $6,800 has two top-16 finishes here in his last three tries. The putter has been cold for Dahmen in 2023. He lost 2.03 or more strokes in four of his last five tournaments. I like that he is striking the ball better as he gained 4,83 strokes on approach at the Valspar.

Tyler Duncan $6,800 has a 12th and a T28 finish here in the last four years. He has been excellent as a ball striker lately gaining 3.07 strokes ball striking in five out of his last six measured events. He also has two third-place finishes in his last five events.

One and Done

Standings

Andrew DeWitt: $7,961,466

John Hayes: $3,994,313

Dennis Esser: $3,359,756

Esser: Scottie Scheffler was on the verge of making a run at Jon Rahm when he stood over his tee shot on 12 on Sunday. Then he did the unthinkable and crushed it over the green, leading to a double bogey at the worst time. Viewers would have known that was coming if they knew I had him in one and done. I’m putting the Esser-curse on Patrick Cantlay for all of his slow play on Sunday this week. While the curse may be real at this point, it’s tough to ignore Cantlay’s ball-striking form and course history here.

Hayes: I’m going with Scottie Scheffler this week. I need to bounce back with a good finish here. He might be under-owned this week due to his not-great putting performance at the Masters, but he dominated tee-to-green last week.

DeWitt: I’m a little scared about this tournament. It’s hard to know how players will react to playing a week after the Masters and the grueling week spent at Augusta National. The weather certainly didn’t help things. I’m going with Justin Rose in this spot. Why? Rose does well on small greens with his stellar approach play, and I’m not sure where else I’d love to use him in the rest of the schedule. There may be some weird missed cuts this week due to the Masters’ hangover for many players.