2023 Scottish Open odds, picks, sleepers: Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick among the best bets

The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland hosts the second edition of the Genesis Scottish Open as a co-sanctioned event by the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour this week. The Scottish Open has been played for over fifty years but has only been hosted at Renaissance for the last four years.

Renaissance is so new to Scotland’s ancient world of golf that it only has a three-sentence Wikipedia page. The Savardi family hired Tom Doak to create The Renaissance Club on a plot of land alongside Muirfield in the 2000s.

The Renaissance Club has not shown its teeth yet as the host of the Scottish Open, as all four editions have been played in rather soft conditions with little to no wind. This year it looks like it should play as it was designed, with the forecast showing windy conditions for the weekend. Thursday will have the mildest weather and the least rain, while the leaders on Sunday could be playing in showers and 20 mph winds. With the windy conditions, I will be looking for the best ball strikers to rise to the top this week.

The field at this year’s edition of the Scottish Open is the strongest to date. Jon Rahm is the only eligible player in the top 10 of the official world golf rankings to skip this week in preparation for the Open Championship. Cameron Smith’s absence is a little more glaring after he went wire-to-wire to win last week on the LIV Golf Tour as he prepares to defend his Open Championship title next week. Justin Thomas is in the field and is in danger of falling out of the top 20 in the official world golf rankings this week for the first time in a long time, and it just might be his good buddy Rickie Fowler that does it.

Betting Slip

Patrick Cantlay +1400 was a hot putter away from winning at TPC River Highlands his last time out. That week, he gained 6.94 strokes on approach and 11.58 strokes from tee to green. That meant he fixed whatever his issue was at the U.S. Open where he lost strokes on approach for the second time in four weeks. He came in fourth here last year, so he will have some confidence in how his game fits the course.

Tommy Fleetwood +2200 has two missed cuts in his last five outings that seem to have come from out of nowhere, as he looks to be in complete control of his game. I’m banking on the Tommy Fleetwood we saw lose in a playoff at the RBC Canadian Open to show up this week. He has excellent course history here with a second and a fourth place finish among his last three trips.

Matt Fitzpatrick +2200 is purely on my card based on course history. He has struggled a bit lately, especially with his driver, where he has lost almost five strokes to the field combined in his last two events. He is still locked in with his putter, which he will need if the scoring this week is close to where it has been for the last four years.

Shane Lowry +3500 has gained strokes with his driver in eight straight tournaments and 4.5 or more strokes on approach in three of his last five tournaments. Lowry hasn’t teed it up here yet, but he can go to his good buddy Pádraig Harrington for any tips on the course he might need. Harrington has been a key voice in guiding Tom Doak into tweaking the golf course to attract more top players as well as make it a fair test of golf. Lowry has four top-20 finishes in his last five outings and has been positive with the putter in all four tournaments.

DFS Plays

Scottie Scheffler $11,600 hasn’t quite figured out The Renaissance Club in his two trips to the Scottish Open, but that might make him an interesting play this week if gamers only go by course results. The addition of the wind might be key for Scheffler as the Texas native is excellent at playing in the wind. The high 6K and low 7K players make it easy to pay for Scheffler this week. His recent form is ridiculous. He has six straight top-five finishes with two of them being major championships.

Rory McIlroy $10,900 has a missed cut and 34th place finish in his two trips to The Renaissance Club, but he is coming into this week in fine form. He has five straight top 9 finishes and has gained five or more strokes on approach in his last two outings. I really thought we would get him at a better price to win this week based on his course history, but I was mistaken. Here we get him a big discount that may allow us to leverage the field, as I expect his ownership to be below Cantlay and Xander Schauffele’s.

Patrick Cantlay $10,200 See above.

Matt Fitzpatrick $9,800 See above.

Tyrrell Hatton $9,600 hasn’t played since the U.S. Open, where he struggled with his irons and around the greens. He has been excellent off the tee all year and was hot with the putter before taking this break. He has good (not great) course history here, so I don’t think you can fade him, but I would be a little worried about rust this week.

Rickie Fowler $9,500 is coming off his first win in more than four years and is playing some of the best golf on the PGA tour. Fowler has gained over three strokes on approach in five of his last seven tournaments. He is scorching hot with the putter as he has gained almost 12 strokes combined in his last three tournaments.

Tommy Fleetwood $9,400 See above.

Shane Lowry $9,100 See above.

Wyndham Clark $9,000 cooled off after his U.S. Open win with a T29 at the Travelers, but that doesn’t deter me from using him this week. His putting has been stellar since switching to the same flat stick as Rory McIlroy, and his around-the-green game has improved almost as much in that same time frame. He finished 16th here last year before his game took off.

Min Woo Lee $8,900 crushes the ball off the tee and has been in fine form lately. He had back-to-back top 9 finishes in the United States before heading back to the DP World Tour where he finished T15 at the British Masters gaining strokes across the board. He missed the cut last year as the returning champion, but that can happen with the added pressure and responsibilities.

Alex Smalley $7,900 is among the best in the field lately in strokes gained on approach. He has gained over 20 strokes combined on approach in his last three tournaments and is coming off a second place finish where Sepp Straka took a heroic Sunday 62 to beat him. As a bonus, he finished 10th here last year.

Aaron Rai $7,800 has two top 9s in his last three outings, and he has gained more than six strokes on approach in both of those performances. He won here three years ago to go along with his positive form.

Gary Woodland $7,600 has missed one cut in his last 10 tournaments, yet it feels like he is playing poorly. He has gained strokes off the tee in every tournament since late October and he has gained more than 10 strokes combined on approach in his last three outings. His putter is absolutely killing him, and I’m tempted to get a replica of Rickie Fowler’s putter to send to him just so I can at least have a sniff while I’m betting him on these 100-1 tickets.

Doug Ghim $7,500 continues to play well. He has five top 27 finishes in his last six outings. He has gained strokes off the tee in five of his last six while gaining on approach in five straight. He has even improved with the putter as he has gained strokes in three straight. I am playing Eric Cole a little more than Ghim this week, but his 16th place finish here last year has me comfortable with him.

Eric Cole $7,400 has made seven of his last eight cuts, with five of them being top 24 finishes. He has gained more than 10 strokes on approach combined over his last three outings. He has to be better off the tee to make a dent this week, but I like him at this price.

Alexander Bjork $7,300 has finished top 9 or better in five of his last six events on the DP World Tour. He is a strokes gained approach machine having gained more than 30 strokes combined on approach in his last five measured events.

Jordan L Smith $7,200 is a balky putter away from making some real noise on Sundays. Over his last four tournaments, he has gained almost 20 strokes combined on approach. He finished 24th here last year.

Richie Ramsay $6,900 has three top 7 finishes in his last five outings and hasn’t missed a cut since late April. He’s been doing more damage with his short game lately than with his irons, but I like adding him to my lineups this week.

Romain Langasque $6,900 is an interesting player. He’s great off the tee and with his short game lately but has struggled with his irons. I used him at the U.S. Open to save some budget and will use him again this week. He has a third place finish here back in 2019.

Matthieu Pavon $6,800 has made the cut here each of the last three years, with his best finish being 12th in 2021. He has only missed one cut on the DP World Tour since January and has gained more than 8 strokes combined on approach in his last two outings.

One and Done

Standings

Andrew DeWitt: $11,120,256.22 (1 winner, 24 of 26 cuts)

John Hayes: $9,241,622.08 (1 winner, 18 of 25 cuts)

Dennis Esser: $8,290,072 (1 winner, 22 of 26 cuts)

If you want to see the golfers we have used throughout the year, you can see our spreadsheet tracking it here. We pick in reverse order of the standings and can’t duplicate players in a given week.

Esser: After winning at the Rocket Mortgage Classic with Rickie Fowler, we grabbed a T6 along with the rest of the golf betting world with Denny McCarthy at the John Deere Classic. I’m taking Tommy Fleetwood this week and hoping he can break his PGA Tour win drought with a win in Europe.

Hayes: In Scotland, I’m interested in a creative player who is willing to play the course the way it was intended. I’ve got Jordan Spieth this week. He won last year before a major at the Valero Texas Open and I think he can do it again in Scotland.

DeWitt: We’re down to the last few weeks here and I’ll use Viktor Hovland in Scotland. He’s been pretty consistent this season and has gained strokes in four of five tournaments.