Charles Schwab Challenge odds, expert picks, sleepers: Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth among favorites at Colonial

The PGA Tour returns to Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. Colonial Country Club has been a regular stop on the PGA Tour since 1946.

The players will be welcomed by the familiar Par 70 course which measures a little over 7,200 yards and features Bermuda grass from tee to green and bent grass on the putting surface. The greens roll at an impressive 13 on the stimpmeter and roll as true as anywhere on the PGA Tour. The Perry Maxwell design will receive a facelift directly after this year’s tournament as Gil Hanse and his team will be starting a year-long top-to-bottom renovation.

The tournament features a decently strong field considering it is following a major championship. If the stars of the PGA Tour, like Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, and Collin Morikawa weren’t enough to draw a crowd, the inclusion of Michael Block — the PGA Championship media darling — through a sponsor’s exemption should bring some attention to the tournament. The PGA teaching professional has accepted invitations to this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge and the RBC Canadian Open in a few weeks. Without rehashing too much of what we all saw this weekend from Block I would just like to say how impressed I was with his ability to stay in the moment at all times while being so self-aware while in front of the cameras on national television. His hole-in-one on Sunday will never be forgotten, but his up and down on 18 to secure a place in the 2024 PGA Championship was not only more important but, in some ways, more impressive when you consider the circumstances.

Block deflected much of the conversation and attention away from the extremely impressive win from Brooks Koepka. Koepka was magnificent for three straight days and finds himself in second place in the Ryder Cup standings because of his performances in the first two major championships of the year. His battle with Viktor Hovland was riveting all while Scheffler was making a mad dash to join the conversation. I hope everyone was able to cash a winning ticket on Koepka after reading the article last week.

This week I’ll focus on iron play with proximity with short irons being key. Putting will also factor into the model more than it usually does. The two par 5s at 1 and 11 are pretty difficult when put up against the rest of the par 5s on the PGA Tour so par 4 scoring will be more important. With the long history of tournaments being played at Colonial Country Club and the course not changing much over the years course history will also be a major factor.

Betting Slip

Jordan Spieth +1400 proved he was healthy last week by absolutely crushing the ball off the tee. He was outdriving Dustin Johnson by a large margin on Sunday and gained 5.7 strokes off the tee for the week. He was also excellent with his irons as he gained 2.69 strokes on approach. He struggled around the green and on the putting surface and those numbers were to be expected after he lost a ball out of bounds from a greenside bunker. I can’t remember the last time I saw a player do that. He is the all time leading money winner at this tournament and comes in at a decent price.

Sungjae Im +2000 missed the cut at the PGA Championship, which came as a bit of a surprise. I won’t worry about it too much because of the difficulty of Oak Hill CC and the conditions. He has had some success here, even if it has been more volatile than it has been at other places. He has two top-15 finishes here and two missed cuts. Since his T6 at The Players, his worst finish outside of the PGA Championship in stroke play events was a T16 at the Masters. I’m looking for a bounce back from Im this week.

Justin Rose +2800 already has a win under his belt this year at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and was in contention last week at the PGA Championship before ultimately falling back for a T9. His putter has been fantastic all year as he has only lost more than .1 of a stroke putting twice since November. He’s been accurate with his irons and gained 6.33 strokes combined on approach in his last two outings. He has excellent course history here, winning in 2018 and T3 in 2020.

Tommy Fleetwood +2800 is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour, and this week might give him one of his best chances. He has been excellent across the board lately, gaining strokes in every major category in three straight tournaments. He finished T35 here last year, so we don’t have to worry about the course rookie curse here.

Cameron Davis +4000 has three top-seven finishes in his last five stroke play events. He has gained 4.25 or more strokes on approach in two of his last three events. He finished T7 here last year, his best finish at Colonial Country Club.

Sleepers

Austin Eckroat +12500 (Shop as high as +17500) is coming off of a T2 finish at the Byron Nelson and should be comfortable playing in Texas after starring at Oklahoma State University. He has gained over 5.3 strokes from tee to green in two straight tournaments. His profile isn’t perfect for this course, but I like taking a long shot if they are hitting it this well.

DFS Plays

Scottie Scheffler $11,500 gained 15.29 strokes from tee to green at the PGA Championship. His putter finally came around on Sunday, but ultimately his performance with the flat stick earlier in the week kept him from winning his second major championship. He’s a 4-to-1 favorite to win this week and at those odds, you would have to either bet big to win some decent money or parlay him with another sport to make it worthwhile. Even though he is the highest priced player in the field by $800 I think there’s a good case to be made that he should be over 12K at this tournament against this field.

Collin Morikawa $10,400 gained strokes across the board at the PGA Championship, and yet he only finished T26. He was in contention for much of the first three days but couldn’t quite get it going. He looked like he would contend here last year but struggled to a top T40 finish. I think there’s some value in backing Morikawa this week in DFS. Scheffler and Spieth are going to be very popular plays and may even be the top two priced players for many lineups so getting Morikawa lower owned than he should be is a nice option.

Jordan Spieth $9,900 See above.

Justin Rose $9,300 See above.

Tommy Fleetwood $9,200 See above.

Denny McCarthy $8,700 has five straight top 25 finishes in stroke play events before he finished T29 at the PGA Championship. He has gained more than 12 strokes putting combined in his last two events. He also gained 3.96 strokes on approach at the PGA Championship.

Cameron Davis $8,600 See above.

Taylor Moore $8,000 struggled after making the cut at the PGA Championship, but he wasn’t the only one. He missed the cut here last year, but he profiles really well for the type of player that should contend at Colonial Country Club. He hasn’t lost a stroke on the greens since the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and he has gained off the tee and on approach in four out of his last five events.

Brendon Todd $7,800 has finished T8 and third here in his last two tries. He had made six straight cuts, with a T8 at the Wells Fargo being his best finish before he missed the cut last week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,700 has gained over four strokes on approach in four out of his last five events. He finished T15 here last year and has been an excellent putter since coming on to the PGA Tour.

Thomas Detry $7,400 has had a decent season. He hasn’t quite gotten everything going at the same time where he could really contend. He has made five out of his last six cuts, and he had a T7 on the DP World Tour before finishing T40 at the PGA Championship.

Adam Svensson $7,300 has made three straight cuts and has gained strokes off the tee in all three. He has been excellent with his putter in his last two outings gaining over 11.5 strokes combined.

Beau Hossler $7,300 has made six straight cuts and has gained strokes primarily off the tee and with his short game, which has been excellent. The Texas product could surprise this week.

Hayden Buckley $7,300 has made six straight cuts while continuing to rack up the strokes gained off the tee and on approach. He is volatile around and on the greens, but you can’t fade him when he’s in this type of ball-striking form.

Eric Cole $7,200 is coming off of a T15 at the PGA Championship where he gained strokes across the board. He has gained strokes on approach in nine out of his last ten measured events.

Vincent Norrman $7,000 has finished T18 or better in four of his last five events. He has gained across the board in two straight events, and those results can’t be ignored, even if his statistical profile isn’t perfect here.

Nate Lashley $6,900 has gained on approach in six straight events, and he has gained over six strokes on approach in each of his last two events. He has gained with the putter in four straight as well.

Michael Block $6,900 FADE at all costs. You should probably take him to miss the cut if you get a decent number on that prop bet.

Akshay Bhatia $6,700 has gained more than 12 strokes on approach combined in his last two events. He’s had some time off since the Wells Fargo and will be looking to build on his success since getting temporary status.

Austin Eckroat $6,700 See above.

Carson Young $6,300 has three top-19 finishes in his last five events, and yet he continues to be priced this low. He has gained on approach in four straight events and is coming off of shooting a 62 at his U.S. Open qualifier.

One and Done

Standings

Andrew DeWitt: $8,615,807.89 (1 winner, 17 of 19 cuts)

Dennis Esser: $5,027,219 (15 of 19 cuts)

John Hayes:$4,988,568.37 (15 of 18 cuts)

If you want to see the golfers we have used throughout the year, you can see our spreadsheet tracking it here. We pick in reverse order of the standings and can’t duplicate players in a given week.

Esser: I am really regretting taking Dustin Johnson over Brooks Koepka in this One and Done contest. I took Koepka in all my other contests, which softens the blow a bit. I’m going with Justin Rose this week because of his course history and current form.

Hayes: I’m going with Australian Cam Davis. He is coming off a T4 at the PGA Championship. Davis finished T7 here last year and has the ability to overpower the golf course with his driver.

DeWitt: Sam Burns is my pick this week. It’s not a huge purse this week. Burns shouldn’t be too high on ownership and he’s a great fit for this course with his driving accuracy. He also won here last year so that’s all you need to know about his course history here. He also won the Dell Match Play in Texas earlier this year. He’s also won twice at Valspar which is a similar course in terms of tree-lined fairways.