2024 F1 Championship Odds and Predictions
The F1 Championship odds for the 2024 season are now ready at sports betting sites. We are dissecting the latest F1 World Championship odds and predicting how this season will unfold.
On Saturday, March 2, the green flag drops on the 2024 F1 season at the Bahrain Grand Prix in Sakhir, Bahrain. A total of 20 drivers will compete across 24 races from Bahrain to Abu Dhabi in December.
F1 Driver Championship Odds
Last season, Max Verstappen and his Red Bull team rolled over the competition as a -140 pre-season favorite. Despite a 58.3 percent implied probability to win, Verstappen looked like he had a 95 percent chance within weeks of the first race.
Verstappen’s Red Bull crossed the finish line ahead of the grid in 19 of 22 races for 575 points. The 26-year-old Dutch phenom captured his third world title two months prior to the season finale in Abu Dhabi.
Currently, at Bovada, Verstappen is a -550 betting favorite to win the 2024 F1 World Driver’s Championship. The 2024 F1 Championship odds suggest that Verstappen has an implied probability of 84.6 percent to win in 2024.
Following Verstappen’s dominance, the 2024 betting odds on the F1 Championship look nearly accurate. After breaking his own F1 win record from 2022, Verstappen is expected to have another standout year.
Verstappen finished more than double ahead of Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez’s second-place season performance of 285 points. According to the latest F1 Driver’s Championship odds, Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton has the second-best odds at +1200.
Many people expected Hamilton to come back with a vengeance last season, but he was regularly frustrated with his car and didn’t win a race for the first time in his career. The question is: In his final season at Mercedes, before moving to Ferrari, does the seven-time champion have anything left to give?
Teammate George Russell’s +2500 odds to win the 2024 title might be the better value play. Bovada’s F1 oddsmakers do not foresee Hamilton’s future team, Ferrari, competing for a world title in 2024. Currently, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc has the fourth-best odds to win at +2200.
The most common F1 odds are to win the World Championship and races. Understanding these odds is quite simple: bet on who you believe will win, according to the latest odds. The corresponding number to each driver represents the odds you must play to back them.
Let’s dive into some of the other F1 odds that you can bet on at Bovada for the 2024 season:
2024 F1 Championship Odds
The following F1 odds to win championship are courtesy of Bovada:
F1 betting sites don’t have much choice but to insert Mad Max as a heavy -550 favorite.
At +1200, Hamilton has a 7.7 percent chance to win the F1 Driver’s Championship. In Hamilton’s curtain call with team principal Toto Wolff, did Mercedes do enough in the offseason to be competitive with Red Bull in 2024?
The largest improvement from the pre-season 2023 F1 Championship odds to the 2024 season is Norris. The 24-year-old Belgian driver went into last season as a +10000 longshot. Currently, Norris is +1400 to win the 2024 F1 Championship in his new McLaren MCL38, which is expected to afford Norris more opportunities to win races.
2024 F1 Championship Predictions
We would like to see a new contender emerge to make Verstappen sweat this season. However, Mercedes needs more than one off-season to catch up to Red Bull. McLaren is on the move, but Norris isn’t yet on the same page as Verstappen.
Meanwhile, Ferrari has regressed since Leclerc showed so much promise in the 2022 campaign. Team strategy woes are a concern again, and they likely don’t have the right car to push Verstappen. Ferrari has to already start thinking about 2025 with Leclerc and Hamilton.
That said, RB20 shouldn’t have as much success as RB19. Verstappen broke multiple F1 records last season. We don’t foresee Verstappen winning as easily as he did in 2023. With this in mind, Verstappen is likely due for roughly 16 wins, with at least a few upsets.
Amid an investigation into inappropriate behavior by Red Bull team principal Christian Horner, there could be a lapse or two early on this season. Horner hasn’t been cleared of wrongdoing yet, but is showing no signs of stepping down from his post. Nevertheless, we do not foresee this manifesting itself as a long-term issue. Verstappen’s laser focus should overshadow any drama with Horner over a whole schedule.
The back-to-back F1 champ might need to wait until November to clinch his third consecutive title, but we are confident in his chances to pilot RB20 into the F1 history books. We give Verstappen roughly a 90 percent chance of winning the 2024 title.
Look for Red Bull to continue to throttle the competition until the 2026 regulations are introduced.
