Three tips for the big weekend handicaps

The two big handicaps tomorrow are the bet365 Bunbury Cup at Newmarket and the John Smith’s Cup at York. Both are early closing races in which the weights were framed by the official handicapper several weeks ago. This means several horses in both races are ‘well in’, in that if the handicapper was in a position to evaluate their most recent runs – after he set the weights – they would be carrying several pounds more tomorrow.

However, the most difficult issue to factor into which horses to tip today is undoubtedly the weather: both Newmarket and York are forecast to have large amounts of rain which could make the ground at both tracks ‘soft’ by tomorrow afternoon. But if there is much less rain than forecast, tipping horses that do not run well on soft ground would be a big mistake. The ideal is to have a well-handicapped horse that goes well on pretty much any surface.  

Step forward Eve Johnson Houghton’s STREETS OF GOLD, a horse that is officially 4lb ‘well in’ in tomorrow’s Bunbury Cup (Newmarket 4 p.m.) on the basis of his fine run when third in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. On top of that, he has winning course form at Newmarket and the distance will be perfect for him. Furthermore, he has winning form from last season, when he was victorious in all five of his races, on a variety of ground conditions varying from ‘good to firm’ to ‘soft’ (though, in truth, I suspect he is better on quicker ground).

The only slight negative is that Streets of Gold has yet to win in three attempts this season but I hope he can return to his very best at Newmarket tomorrow. Back him each way with Sky Bet, paying seven places, at 8-1 in a fiercely competitive 20-runner race over seven furlongs of the straight course.

While Streets of Gold is my main fancy, I can’t resist going in double-handed in the race by also backing Ralph Beckett’s STAR OF ORION. This five-year-old gelding hasn’t won as many races as his talent deserves – just two wins from 21 runs – but he has run some mighty races in defeat in his career, notably when second in the Moet & Chandon International Stakes at Ascot two years ago off a rating of 97.

Now rated just 92 and with two good runs under his belt this season, Star of Orion should also be backed each way with Sky Bet, this time at odds of 12-1, again paying seven places.

If the ground does go properly soft tomorrow, Biggles, a stablemate of Star of Orion and with Ryan Moore in the saddle, will probably have a big say in the outcome of this contest but he has been found in the market in the last few days and you can’t back them all.

In the John Smith’s Cup tomorrow (York 3.10 p.m.), another red-hot handicap this time over just over one mile two furlongs, I have already put up Sonny Liston for the race. He, too, is 4lbs ‘well in’, this time for his fine run in the 30-runner Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. He beat every horse that day bar his stablemate, Jimi Hendrix.

Put up at odds of 20-1 but now as short as 13/2, Sonny Liston had looked a first class bet before the weather forecast changed. The downer on his chances, however, is the likely soft ground. He is untried on the surface and, furthermore, it could test his stamina to the limit over this trip. Sadly, my confidence is on the wane that he will win run a big race tomorrow but I am, of course, hoping for the best.

Sonny Liston’s rivals include Long Tradition, who is fully 9lb ‘well in’ as a result of his easy win at Chelmsford last month. However, that comfortable victory came on the all-weather and he may not be as effective on grass, especially if the rain arrives.

Once again, I am going to go into this race double handed with a horse that will not mind if the rain arrives in buckets or whether, however unlikely, the wet stuff misses York over the next 48 hours. MAJESTIC hails from the in-form yard of Jack Channon, who has had five winners from 17 runners over the past fortnight.

The five-year-old gelding is consistent and has rock solid from on all ground conditions from ‘heavy’ to ‘good to firm’. Given that Connor Beasley gets such a good tune out of the horse, I make him the best bet of the weekend. Back him each way at 14-1 yet again with Sky Bet, yet again paying seven places. He’s bigger odds with other bookies but they are paying less places.

The big race this weekend is tomorrow’s Pertemps Network July Cup (Newmarket 4.35 p.m.), a Group 1 over six furlongs. If the forecast rain arrives, I would marginally fancy Azure Blue and Kinross ahead of Shaquille and Little Big Bear but I can’t see any value in backing any of the nine runners so I will simply enjoy this race without any financial involvement in the outcome.

The BBC has serious questions to answer over Huw Edwards

With Ascot also putting on some great racing, tomorrow is a day for racing enthusiasts to savour.

2023 flat season running total: – 11.73 points.

2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.

Pending bets:

1 point each way Sonny Liston at 20-1 for the John Smith’s Cup, paying ¼ odds, four places.

1 point each way Majestic 14-1 for the John Smith’s Cup, paying 1/5th odds, seven places.

1 point each way Streets of Gold at 8-1 for the Bunbury Cup, paying 1/5 odds, seven places.

1 point each way Star of Orion at 12-1 for the Bunbury Cup, paying 1/5 odds, seven places.

1 point each way Fresh at 12-1 for the Moet & Chandon International Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

Settled bets:

1 point each way Royal Scotsman at 17/2 in the 2000 Guineas, 1/5 odds, paying four places. 3. + 0.5 points.

1 point each way Call My Bluff at 4-1 in the Chester Cup, paying six places, 1/5 odds. 3. – 0.2 points.

1 point each way Safe Voyage at 12-1 in the Victoria Cup, paying seven places, 1/5 odds. 5. + 1.4 points.

1 point each way Popmaster at 6-1 in the Connect It Utility Services Handicap. Unplaced. – 2 points

1 point each way Royal Acclaim at 6-1 in the Temple Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 point.

1 point each way Sprewell at 10-1 for the Derby paying 1/5 odds, five places. 4. + 1 point.

1 point each way Arrest at 4-1 for the Derby, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points. 2 points win Saga at 14-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup.

1 point each way Mokaatil at 12-1 for the Epsom Dash, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

2 points win Saga at 14-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup. Non Runner. – 2 points.

1 point each way Twilight Calls at 16-1 for the King’s Stand Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. 4 but Rule 4 deduction of 15p in the £. + 1.97 points.

2 points win Royal Scotsman at 14-1 for the St James’s Palace Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Zoffee at 14-1 for the Ascot Stakes, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Chillingham at 22-1 for the Copper Horse Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. 4. + 3.4 points.

1 point each way Tarrabb at 10-1 for the Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. 3. + 1 point.

1 point each way Point Lynas at 33-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Atrium at 20-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Circle of Fire at 13/2 for the Queen’s Vase, paying 1/5 odds, four places. 4. + 0.3 points.

2 points win Yibir at 11-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Rhoscolyn at 22-1 for the Buckingham Palace Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Physique at 40-1 for the Britannia Stakes, paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Lezoo at 9-1 for the Commonwealth Cup, paying 1/5th odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Chelsea Green at 12-1 for the Sandringham Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, eight places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

2 points win Pyledriver at 15/2 for the Hardwicke Stakes. 1st but Rule 4 deduction of 30p in the £. + 9.9 points.

1 point each way Apollo One at 16-1 for the Wokingham Stakes, 1/5th odds, paying eight places. 2. + 2.2 points.

1 point each way Zoffee at 20-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 points each way Adjuvant at 13/2 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/5 odds, six places. 5. + 0.3 points.

1 point each way Sprewell at 7-1 for the Irish Derby, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Ouzo for the Coral Challenge at 15/2, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2.  + 0.5 points.

1 point each way Onesmoothoperator for the Old Newton Cup at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a one-point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either one point each way or two points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).