Who to have a flutter on at Longchamp

The Arc weekend at Longchamp – well worth a visit if you have never been racing in France – is just over a week away and now seems a good time to place a couple of bets at this most prestigious of meetings.

Set on the outskirts of Paris in the Bois de Boulogne, Longchamp hosts two big races that British trainers love to target: the Grade 1 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Europe’s richest race over a mile and a half, and the Grade 1 Prix de l’Abbaye, for the continent’s best sprinters over five furlongs. Both races will take place on Sunday October 1.

Five of the last six runnings of the Arc have been held on soft or heavy ground, but the weather forecast for Paris over the coming week or so suggests little rain and warm temperatures, with the ground likely to be ‘good to soft’ or better if these predictions are right.

Westover, a four-year-old colt trained by Ralph Beckett, ran a superb race last time out in the Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes at Ascot in late July, eventually, having raced both wide and keenly, going down by a head to Hukum in a driving finish.

Hukum, Owen Burrows’ talented six-year-old who is due to reoppose once again, and Ace Impact, the unbeaten French three-year-old, head the market, with the latter almost certain to go off favourite. However, Westover is getting

better and better with age and, given a decent draw, I can see him putting the icing on the cake for what has been a superb season for his astute handler. Given the uncertainties over ground, draw and more, I am suggesting 2 points win at 9-1 with Ladbrokes and Coral.

I accept that Westover might be a bigger price on the day but I would be disappointed if he could not improve significantly on his sixth place in the Arc last year on ground that was far too soft for him.

In the Prix de l’Abbaye, I am going to take a chance on MAKAROVA. This four-year-old filly couldn’t live with the hot pace set by Live in the Dream in the Grade 1 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes at York last month – but nor could Highfield Princess and other top sprinters.

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The Paris sprint has been Makarova’s target since finishing fourth in the Nunthorpe, one place in front of Regional who went on to Group 1 glory in the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock earlier this month.

Ed Walker’s lovely filly, another horse improving with age, will be well suited by the likely decent ground. Back Makarova each way at 33-1 with Ladbrokes or Coral, both paying three places, for a race in which British trained horses have a good record. The odds are too big given her chances of making the frame.

I am happy enough with my two ante-post bets from three weeks ago in the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (tomorrow, 3.35pm). The more rain than falls between now and the off, the better for Aleezdancer, while the less rain, the better for Juan Les Pins. The ground is currently ‘good to soft’ with only light showers forecast. Both horses are now significantly shorter than they were three weeks ago.

In the Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup (tomorrow, 2.25pm), the likely favourite Rathbone has a huge chance of landing his hat-trick as he is 6lbs ‘well in’ compared with his future handicap mark.

However, the horse he beat in an apprentice handicap at Doncaster last time out, JUMP THE GUN, has far superior course form at this Scottish track. I fancy that he can reverse the Doncaster form, with both his trainer (Iain Jardine) and his apprentice jockey (William Pyle) having each had a winner at Ayr yesterday. Back Jump the Gun 1 point each way at 8-1 with Betfred, paying six places.

In the same race, I am also going to tip a horse at a bigger price: BERNARDO O’REILLY. Richard Spencer’s veteran sprinter was third in this race last year off a mark 2lbs higher and he, once again, has the excellent services of Danny Tudhope in the saddle tomorrow.

His draw in stall 1 is far from ideal and he would prefer the ground to be a bit softer but the 16-1, six places, with bet365 or William Hill is appealing and so backing him 1 point each way with either bookie is the suggestion.

Good luck tomorrow in the two big Ayr sprint handicaps, and beyond.

2023 flat season running total: – 25.82 points.

2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.

Pending:

1 point each way Bernardo O’Reilly at 16-1 in the Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup, paying 6 places.

1 point each way Jump the Gun at 8-1 in the Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup, paying 6 places.

2 points win Juan Les Pins at 20-1 in the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup.

2 points win Aleezdancer at 16-1 in the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup.

2 points win Oviedo at 16-1 for the bet365 Cambridgeshire.

2 points win Westover at 9-1 for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

1 point each way Makarova at 33-1 for the Prix de l’Abbaye, paying 3 places.

Settled bets from last week:

1 point each way Call Me Ginger at 7-1 in the Betfred Portland handicap, paying 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Middle Earth at 7-1 in the Betfred St Leger, paying 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).