As Braves consider changes, they should look at 1990s failure as a lesson

The Braves posted two of their top five all-time win totals in 2022 (101) and 2023 (104) and all that got them were two lousy T-shirts that read, “Division Champions.” It’s sort of like winning a weekend vacation in the Bahamas, only to learn the transportation wasn’t so much a jet as it was a crop-duster that first needed to make a detour over a Midwest cornfield, and the accommodations weren’t so much a beach hotel as they were a trailer park adjacent to a goat farm.

World Series odds just came out for 2024. The Braves are favored. Yeah, don’t get drunk on them.

They were favored before this postseason to win it all. They left meekly. They were among the top three favorites before the 2022 postseason. They were quickly bounced. Atlanta fans have become accustomed to these mixed emotions — the comfort of being perennial contenders but also the emotional scar tissue from October failures that accompanies that.

The decision-makers in the front office made a mistake in the 1990s and early 2000s. They too often assumed that regular-season success would translate into championships. The stale narrative about the randomness of baseball’s postseason was an easy and short-sighted fallback. When a team has three future Hall of Fame pitchers in the starting rotation, of course it’s going to win a ton of games in the regular season. But opponents figured out ways to minimize that advantage. The Braves couldn’t score enough runs, and when games went to the bullpen their advantage was gone. Fourteen straight division titles led to only one World Series.

But there was never a sense that the front office took a serious look at the core of the roster and asked, “Do we need to change the mix here?”

It would be premature to assume this incarnation of the Braves — with six straight division titles but only one World Series — is headed down that familiar path of too much October misery. But recent results can’t be ignored either. The group needs to change beyond just minimal window dressing. This is an important winter because if general manager Alex Anthopoulos assumes he can come with largely the same cast, he’s playing a dangerous game.

It would be short-sighted for consecutive NLDS losses to the Phillies — eight games (2-6) and an aggregate score of 44-21 — to be written off to that stale narrative of the “randomness” of postseason baseball. And yes, while it’s true starting pitching injuries impacted the Braves, using that as the lone excuse ignores that the bullpen was stronger during the 2021 title run and the offense took a major dive in this postseason.

Atlanta spent the regular season clubbing opponents with major-league highs in runs, home runs, batting average, OPS and basically any statistic that screamed, “Hello, pitcher. Expect pain.” But the team averaged only 2.62 runs (21 total) in eight NLDS games the last two years — a significant drop from 4.06 in the 2021 postseason. In that title run, the Braves scored two or fewer runs in only four of 16 games (25 percent). In 2022 and 2023, they scored two or fewer in four out of eight (50 percent) and more than three only twice.

With free agency open and the GM meetings coming up, the Braves need at least a No. 3 starter and would do better to seek a No. 2, given that Max Fried may be lost in free agency after the 2024 season, this almost certainly will be Charlie Morton’s final year and nobody can be certain what Kyle Wright will look like when he returns from shoulder surgery in 2025. (Potential candidates: Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman. Aaron Nola is probably out of their price range.)

The decision to decline Eddie Rosario’s option year affirms that Anthopoulos understands the need for change in the everyday lineup. His history, and payroll considerations, suggest it’s more likely he makes trades than splurges in free agency (sorry, no Shohei Ohtani dreams).

So who should the Braves consider trading to fill holes and change the look of this team? Here are some options:

— Marcell Ozuna: He went 2-for-21 (.095) with eight strikeouts in the last two postseasons. Personal baggage aside, he rebounded to have a strong 2021 with a career-high 40 home runs and 100 RBIs, but expecting him to replicate that is risky, and he’s more movable now with two years ($37 million) left on his contract. With the universal DH, finding an interested team shouldn’t be a problem.

— Ozzie Albies/Orlando Arcia: I’d keep Albies because he has a strong clubhouse presence and he’s on an incredibly affordable contract. But Anthopoulos can’t ignore that the second baseman is a potentially valuable trade chip for a starting pitcher. Vaughn Grissom also could go in trade or be an infield replacement.

— AJ Smith-Shawver/Hurston Waldrep: The pitchers are the team’s top two prospects. Question: Do they need to keep both or would it be beneficial to deal one to a team that is looking to unload the salary of a quality outfielder or starting pitcher who could help the Braves win a title now? This should not be off the table.

— Michael Harris II: Some have suggested moving the will-be-one-day Gold Glove center fielder, an Atlanta native playing for his hometown team. I don’t like it. But can the team ignore that he’s 1-for-27 in the playoffs the last two years?

— Travis d’Arnaud: David O’Brien thinks I’m crazy for listing him. But I take O’Brien thinking I’m crazy as a badge of honor. D’Arnaud has value to the team as a DH, backup catcher and universally liked clubhouse leader. But he’s also a little bit of a luxury with Sean Murphy as the starting catcher. He has one year left on his contract at an affordable $8 million, but the uncertainty is how high his trade value is. I’m guessing he stays.

The Braves have options. The only one they should not consider is standing pat. They’ve made that mistake before.

(Top photo of Marcell Ozuna: Elsa / Getty Images)