Australian Grand Prix Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Verstappen to Start with Mercedes Teammates Lurking

With Max Verstappen qualifying on the pole, Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT looks to make it three straight wins to begin the 2023 season. Our Formula 1 Australian GP picks highlight some of the best ways to wager on Sunday morning’s race in Melbourne.

The 2023 season's third F1 race takes place in The Land Down Under this weekend. F1’s Australian Grand Prix goes green early Sunday morning in the United States. The Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT team dominated out of the gates with 1-2 finishes in each of this year’s first two races. The team has the pole position in Melbourne this week as well, thanks to Verstappen.

Last year, Charles Leclerc piloted his Ferrari from the pole to victory lane in the Australian GP. Despite qualifying second, Verstappen failed to finish the race due to an equipment failure. Will he earn his redemption Sunday?

Here are our best bets and 2023 Australian GP picks for Sunday’s action at the Albert Park Circuit in Melbourne (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Australian GP Best Bets

• To win race and have fastest lap: Max Verstappen (+105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• 2 pick podium parlay: Max Verstappen and George Russell (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Team of winning driver: Mercedes (+410 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

Australian GP Odds

Australian GP Predictions

To win race and have fastest lap: Max Verstappen (+105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

In last year’s Australian GP, Verstappen qualified second but had to retire after 38 laps due to a fuel leak. Fast-forward to this year’s race and the reigning Formula 1 Champion will be on point when the green flag waves. Verstappen’s qualifying time of 1’16.732 was over two-tenths of a second faster than any other driver in the field.

Factor in the pole position and clean air along with the elite equipment that Verstappen drives for Red Bull-Honda RBPT and it’s tough to see anything short of an outright win in Melbourne. The F1 odds certainly believe he's the driver to beat. All major sportsbooks list Verstappen’s outright odds at -300 or higher, so he has upwards of a 75% chance to win the race.

Rather than lay such a heavy price on the win itself, bettors might pursue a parlay that Verstappen will both win and turn the fastest lap in the Australian GP. Fastest laps are tricky to predict, but Verstappen certainly has a leg up on most, if not all, of the field. BetMGM lists him as the straight fastest lap favorite at -110 odds. 

2 pick podium parlay: Max Verstappen and George Russell (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This may be a low-hanging fruit selection, but -110 odds on the top two qualifiers to finish on the podium is certainly a fair price. 

If Verstappen’s outright odds imply he has at least a 75% chance of winning the Australian GP, the likelihood of him finishing on the top 3 is even higher. DraftKings lists a -500 price (implied probability of 83.3%) that the defending F1 champ will secure a top-3 finish. Barring an unforeseen turn of events, Verstappen is a lock. 

George Russell is the second half of this parlay pick. Russell piloted his Mercedes to the No. 2 grid position in qualifying. Last year, he started sixth in Melbourne but managed to gain three spots during the race to finish on the podium. 

With teammate Lewis Hamilton providing a buffer between him and the rest of the field, bettors should expect Russell to score his first podium finish of the season this weekend.

Team of winning driver: Mercedes (+410 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

If there's any racing team that has a shot at snapping Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT’s dominant start this weekend, it's the Mercedes. To make good on his pole position, Verstappen must fend off the Mercedes duo of Russell and Hamilton who line up right behind him in second and third.

It's been well over a year since Hamilton went to victory lane in F1 after his dominant stretch. Even so, the former champion knows a thing or two about winning. Russell earned his first career victory last fall in Brazil in a race the Mercedes teammates dominated.

No one can argue that a +410 price that combines the two drivers starting second and third offers appealing value. What’s more, Sergio Perez’s qualifying mishap effectively removed one of the Red Bull-Honda RBPT cars from contention. One wrong move or bad break for Verstappen and the door swings wide open for one of the Mercedes drivers to capitalize.

Australian GP Race Info

• Date: Sunday, April 2, 1 a.m. ET
• Location: Albert Park Circuit, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
• TV: ESPN
• Defending Winner: Charles Leclerc

Australian GP picks made 4/1/23 at 12:40 p.m. ET

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