Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas finds a $10 chance in the opening race at Flemington on Saturday

Tony Thomas finds the early value for Flemington on Saturday.

RACE 1

I admit to be being surprised at the $10 on offer about EXPLORING. She's a Group 3 winner at Hillside back in January and there were six subsequent winners behind her that day including Cigar Flick, Charm Stone and De Sonic Boom. Liked her recent trial win at Canterbury which she won in a canter. Suited with the claim, the firm track and will be on speed. Tremendous value. The reports are very good about debutante ILLATIVE, who has been super impressive at the jumpouts.

SUGGESTED BET: Exploring each-way at $10. Also take 1,2,8,11 in boxed trifecta.

TIPS: Exploring 1, Illative 2, Flying Concello 3, Naval Academy 4.

RACE 2

This is definitely harder than his last-start win but there was so much to like about the way COSMIC ENIGMA won at Swan Hill last month. Simply toyed with his rivals and his previous effort behind Oceans Above here was full of merit too. With the claim, he carries 7kg less than last start and looks a stayer on the rise. Happy to take $4.20 as reckon he will start shorter. TYPHOON TITMUS is way over the odds at $23 and will have small each-way bet on him too.

SUGGESTED BET: Cosmic Enigma to win at $4.20. Small each-way on Typhoon Titmus at $23.

TIPS: Cosmic Enigma 1, Typhoon Titmus 2, Magnaspin 3, Hard To Cross 4.

Craig Williams rides Exploring to win the Blue Diamond Prelude at Hillside. Picture: Vince Caligiuri-Getty Images

RACE 3

PITCHANUN has been freshened since steaming home and just missing behind Flash Flood at Hillside. Flash Flood has since won again and 4th placegetter Bigolino has also won since. And she beat subsequent winners Frigid and Sky Horse before that. Think $4 is not a bad price at this stage. GOOD AND PROPER races best at Flemington and is the main threat.

SUGGESTED BET: Pitchanun to win at $4.

TIPS: Pitchanun 1, Good And Proper 2, Crimson Light 3, Silverina 4.

RACE 4

THE CREATOR looked good in winning his only two starts in NZ and has been primed for his Aussie debut with a couple of jumpouts. He was given a quiet time at Cranbourne in the heavy ground over an unsuitable trip last time. Has been gelded and gets the blinkers on and has no weight after the claim. Happy to take $4.80 but not much shorter than that. LEGIO TEN should welcome 1400m but some concern where he gets to in the run from inside draw.

SUGGESTED BET: The Creator to win at $4.80

TIPS: The Creator 1, Legio Ten 2, Hennessy Lad 3, Tijuana 4.

RACE 5

The trio who clashed in the Taj Rossi Final here two weeks ago should fight it out again. Going with SUNSOURCE to turn the tables as I think he will relish the extra 200m more. The $4.80 is appealing too. DOLPHIN SKIN will get the charmed run from the draw and the logical danger. He is improving all the time.

SUGGESTED BET: Sunsource to win at $4.80

TIPS: Sunsource 1, Dolphin Skin 2, Line ‘Em Up Loui, Labarna 4.

RACE 6

I don't mind strong stayers going over the jumps as it often sharpens them up and makes them better for their next flat run. Hoping that's the case with LE BAOL. He was super behind Port Guillaume here when racing wide throughout and then won his hurdle debut by 25 lengths. This bloke did run fifth in a Sydney Cup last year. The one to beat. MIMI'S AWARD is in career best form and the main danger.

SUGGESTED BET: Le Baol to win at $5.50.

TIPS: Le Baol 1, Mimi's Award 2, Mostly Cloudy 3, Port Guillaume 4.

RACE 7

Happy to be with ZAC DE BOSS and reckon he is overs at $10. Needs racing to bring him to his peak and that should be the case here after his fighting third to Sigh last month. Like his barrier as he can drift to any part of the track. Firmer track also suits. If the inside is OK, YULONG STORM is worth a small each-way bet. This bloke is racing well.

SUGGESTED BET: Zac De Boss each-way at $10.

TIPS: Zac De Boss 1, Yulong Storm 2, Skywolf 3, He's Our Bonneval 4.

Zac De Boss is ready to peak. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 8

Prepared to gamble on FLOATING ARTIST at the $8.50 quote. With the claim, he's not badly weighted and love his draw as he should be able to sit much closer in the run without having to do too much work. Liked his recent jumpout which he won with ease and he looks forward enough to go close. MILFORD just missed last start and is ready to win. YOUNG WERTHER can run a race too.

SUGGESTED BET: Floating Artist each-way at $8.50

TIPS: Floating Artist 1, Milford 2, Young Werther 3, Normandy Bridge 4.

RACE 9

Hardest race of the day. SENEGALIA looks over the odds at $9. She was very impressive beating Yulong Storm here and then boxed on behind Viviane at Caulfield. Claim suits and will go close. NO WAY EVER is also helped with the claim and goes well fresh. Liked her recent jumpout. Plenty of other chances.

SUGGESTED BET: Senegalia each-way at $9.

TIPS: Senegalia 1, No Way Ever 2, Najem Sohail 3, Zion 4.

BEST BET: Le Baol (race 6)

BEST VALUE: Zac De Boss (race 7)