Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas tips $10 chance at Sandown

Versilia had her chance last start at Caulfield but the form out of the race is strong/ Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

Honest stayer State Squad appeals as the day's best value bet around the $10 mark at Sandown Lakeside on Wednesday.

RACE 1

FUTURE MONARCH was good when resuming at Geelong, hitting the line hard final stages to just miss. Sure to be further improved and gets Jamie Kah in the saddle. Will have to contend with wide draw but there is a long run to the first turn. No natural leaders in the race, which may mean she can roll forward and be a lot closer in the run. Happy to take $3.50 but not much shorter. The value runner could be AKROTIRI. He was closing off well enough at sale on debut and gets the blinkers on here.

SUGGESTED BET: Future Monarch to win at $3.50. Small each way on Akrotiri at $18.

TIPS: Future Monarch 1, Akrotiri 2, Fang It 3, Favourite Child 4.

RACE 2

Pretty keen to be with SAMURAI and reckon $4.20 is value. He could start much shorter come post time. Just beaten at his only start in New Zealand before joining the Freedman yard. Has been gelded and loved his recent jumpout when he won with something in hand. Draws to get a lovely run in behind speed and hard to beat. DELIVERING was fantastic when resuming after sitting wide most of the way and fighting on very well in the straight. SERVED COLD is a full sister to ATC Oaks winner El Patroness and has jumped out well.

SUGGESTED BET: Samurai to win at $4.20.

TIPS: Samurai 1, Delivering 2, Served Cold 3, Pontipines 4.

RACE 3

BRAZEN KINGDOM got off to a bad start and drifted much further back then expected this t/d last time but charged home late to beat all but Eye Of The Eagle. Expect him to be closer to the speed from the good draw here and don't forget he has sound form around the likes of Attrition, Gringotts and Terrestar. Hard to beat. POISON CHALICE overcame a lot of trouble in the straight and still able to burst through a gap late and accelerate quickly to win well. It was only a Geelong maiden but looks very talented.

SUGGESTED BET: Brazen Kingdom to win at $3.50

TIPS: Brazen Kingdom 1, Poison Chalice 2, Sir Rockford 3, Korobeiniki 4.

RACE 4

Going to stick with VERSILIA, who did seem to have her chance at Caulfield last start and ran on OK. Form out of the race is strong with Beour Bay winning last weekend. Comes back to midweek grade where she was impressive at Hillside two starts back. Will be hitting the line hard and ready to win. Happy to take $4. SIRIUS STATEMENT caught the eye running on from the back at Geelong last time and looks a threat at third run in.

SUGGESTED BET: Versilia to win at $4.

TIPS: Versilia 1, Sirius Statement 2, Electric Impulse 3, Imminance 4.

RACE 5

Good value here with STATE SQUAD at $10. He was never going to win at Flemington last start but he also far from disgraced when holding his ground in the straight behind First In Line. Drops in grade here and gets the claim to help. Just needs some early luck from the wide draw. VADABOY showed a return to his best when just gunned down by Fire Glo Too here and meets that horse 2.5kg better this time around.

SUGGESTED BET: State Squad each way at $10.

TIPS: State Squad 1, Vadaboy 2, Fire Glo Too 3, Reservoir Dog 4.

Hard Squeeze looks well placed on Wednesday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 6

With the claim, HARD SQUEEZE looks really well placed here with just 2kg over the limit. Carried 2.5kg over the limit to win this course and distance two runs back and then was brave at Hillside behind Botany. She does like this track and trip, kept a little fresh and looks good value at $5. FEARENTLESS is worth another chance after finding the track too firm at Hillside two weeks ago. Likely to get a softer track this time and can improve.

SUGGESTED BET: Hard Squeeze to win at $5.

TIPS: Hard Squeeze 1, Fearentless 2, Crimson Light 3, Plucky Pirouette 4.

RACE 7

Hard to go past BEWS but he is very short in the market. He did have a charmed run this t/d last start when able to cross to sit behind the leader and then outsprinting his rivals in the run home. Draws perfectly to get almost a similar run here. Always shown promise and looks destined for better races. Value could be taking SOKANON in the exacta with Bews. Liked this bloke's recent jumpout and he did show promise in Kiwi land before coming here. He's been gelded.

SUGGESTED BET: Bews and Sokanon in boxed exacta.

TIPS: Bews 1, Sokanon 2, Watadeel 3, Rockribbed 4.

RACE 8

BOLDINHO has a few things against him, least of which is still a big weight after the claim and a wide barrier but think he is a bit better than these if he brings his A game to the table. As a 3yo, he had form around the likes of Renosu, Kin, Red Card and She Dances. He was doing his best work late behind Va Via at Caulfield last month and has since won a trial at Cranbourne with ease. Extra 100m to his liking and $5 looks a good bet. THE HASS was outpaced down the straight at Flemington but his two previous Lakeside runs were very good and he can improve sharply.

SUGGESTED BET: Boldinho to win at $5

TIPS: Boldinho 1, The Hass 2, Flycatcher 2, Speak Now 4.

BEST BET: Samurai (race 2)

BEST VALUE: State Squad (race 5)