Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas finds $6 winning chances at Sale on Wednesday

The Cunning Fox can make amends at Sale on Wednesday. Picture: Brett Holburt-Racing Photos via Getty Images

Tony Thomas finds the early value for Sale on Wednesday.

RACE 1

Hoping ASSEMBLE gets a run here. She was good on debut in the heavy at Geelong and then forced to lead and battled on well at Hillside behind Flying Concello. Think the firmer track here suits her, draws well and coming back in distance won't be an issue with plenty of pace on here. Good value at the $5.50 mark. Expecting a better run from SOJU, who does have ability.

SUGGESTED BET: Assemble to win at $5.50.

TIPS: Assemble 1, Soju 2, Enna's Dream 3, Ersa 4.

RACE 2

ROUGE MOULIN is a son of I Am Invincible out of Group 1-winning mare Risque and turned in an eye-catcher on debut at Geelong. Bounded on jumping and missed the kick by about five lengths but caught them up and ran on stoutly to be beaten only 3½ lengths on the line. Has since jumped out well even though not suited on the heavy ground at Cranbourne. Draws nicely and looks good value at $6.50. SCORSESE is the logical threat with strong Saturday metro form behind him.

SUGGESTED BET: Rouge Moulin to win at $6.50.

TIPS: Rouge Moulin 1, Scorsese 2, Golden Estrella 3, La Petite Angele 4.

RACE 3

ROYALZ has been well found at the $2 mark, which looks short enough given she's drawn awkwardly. Had the gun run behind the leader last start at Geelong but couldn't run down Only Cupid. That was only second run back. Will use natural speed to cross over and still looks the winner. PARIAH PEARL looks over the odds at $11. Maybe a small each way wager on her is the value play.

SUGGESTED BET: Small each-way on Pariah Pearl at $11.

TIPS: Royalz 1, Pariah Pearl 2, Enzo 3, Akrotiri 4.

RACE 4

With the scratchings of some key rivals, does looks a race in two between CUMBRIAN QUEEN and FREEFLOW. The former was a notable drifter in betting but went to the front and battled on well at Sale 10 days ago. From good draw is likely to lead again and at her peak now. Can back her at $2.60 but not much shorter. Freeflow tracked wide at Geelong when resuming and wasn't disgraced after having some market support.

SUGGESTED BET: Cumbrian Queen to win at $2.60. Exacta 5 to beat 6 may be more value.

TIPS: Cumbrian Queen 1, Freeflow 2, Suddenly 3, Ngorongoro 4.

RACE 5

I admit to being disappointed with the effort of THE CUNNING FOX when favourite at Donald last start but he's just not at his best on really wet tracks. Much better placed here on firm footing, draws well to get the run of the race and gets his chance to break through. Happy to take the $4. RESERVOIR DOG can improve sharply in the small field.

SUGGESTED BET: The Cunning Fox to win at $4

TIPS: The Cunning Fox 1, Reservoir Dog 2, Themoonlitegambler 3, Dodgy One 4.

Insulation, ridden by Luke Nolen, wins at Sale last year. Picture: Scott Barbour-Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 6

This looks the bet of the day for mine. INSULATION looked a smart horse when he won by a space here last year and then was lame when beaten as favourite at Hillside. Had a year off and came back at Lakeside three weeks back, noted drifter in the betting but then produced the run of the race when hitting the line behind King Couver. Beat home subsequent winner Frigid. Can only be improved by the run. Reckon $2.70 now is good value as he could start closer to $2 come post time.

SUGGESTED BET: Insulation to win at $2.70 and to anchor the quaddie.

TIPS: Insulation 1, Dublin Journal 2, Diamond Discovery 3, Girello 4.

RACE 7

BITOFTHEBLARNEY was impressive winning at Werribee on debut and then was OK at Hillside in stronger grade when run off his legs at the 1000m. Think he will welcome the step up in trip here and draws to get the ideal run. From the same family as superstars Bint Marscay and Filante. INDENTED HEAD had all the favours when resuming here 10 days ago but still battled on well enough to suggest he's not far off a peak effort.

SUGGESTED BET: Bitoftheblarney to win at $3.60

TIPS: Bitoftheblarney 1, Indented Head 2, London Point 3, Think Winning 4.

RACE 8

FIELD OF PRAISE fought on well after leading at Bendigo last start in the wet and think she is better suited by the firmer ground. May be ridden a bit more quietly from sticky draw but looks ready to win after two runs back and $6 mark is good value. The claim helps her chances too. FACE THE JURY was ultra impressive winning her maiden here last month and kept fresh since.

SUGGESTED BET: Field Of Praise to win at $6.

TIPS: Field Of Praise 1, Face The Jury 2, Audrey Grace 3, Hydro Star 4.

BEST BET: Insulation (race 6)

BEST VALUE: Rouge Moulin (race 2)