The Valley tips: Godolphin filly to shed Inhibitions
News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Carlyon Stakes meeting at The Valley.
BEST BET
INHIBITIONS (Race 6, No.3)
Inhibitions was desperately unlucky not to score in Sydney first-up and has had another trial since. She’ll get every chance from barrier four.
VALUE BET
AMBASSADORIAL (Race 3, No.4)
Raced handy and got the money at big odds second-up and has jumped out well since. He’ll be on the pace for a long way.
EARLY QUADDIE
3, 4, 9, 10/1, 4, 7, 8/4, 7, 10, 15/3, 7, 9, 12
$100 flexi for 39 per cent
BIG6
4, 7, 10, 15/3, 7, 9, 12/1, 3, 8/1, 7, 8/6, 7/6, 8, 11
$100 flexi for 11.6 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 1, 3, 8
Race 8: 1, 7, 8
Race 9: 6, 7
Race 10: 6, 8, 11
$100 flexi for 185 per cent
RACE 1: 12:35PM MEMBERSHIP ON SALE PLATE (1200m)
Interesting start to a strong meeting at The Valley. JEWEL BAY (3) has performed well in Adelaide and will get every chance to roll forward and be in this for a long way from barrier two. THE YEARS (2) finished less than two lengths from dual Group 1 winner Militarize first-up last time in and will go well here. MANSIERE (4) will be fitter for a good first-up effort as will PRINZERRO (5).
SUGGESTED BET: Jewel Bay to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Jewel Bay $13 – $6.50.
RACE 2: 1:10PM LADBROKES RACING CLUB CHALLENGER HANDICAP (1200m)
THE PRODIGAL SON (9) was too strong for his rivals in a similar race at Flemington and there’s no reason he can’t repeat the performance with Damien Oliver aboard again. MAWALLOCK (14) impressed in her maiden preparation and could measure up to this fresh. LORD DOMINO (7) was a late scratching at Caulfield last week but should perform well in this. HARBIN (10) was outgunned at Sandown but could find this more to his liking.
SUGGESTED BET: The Prodigal Son to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Mawallock $4.40 – $3.
RACE 3: 1:45PM CORPORATE MEMBERSHIP ON SALE PLATE (1500m)
Punters should watch this race closely as it can be a good guide to the spring. AMBASSADORIAL (4) raced on the speed and got the cash at big odds at Sandown and can repeat that success after another impressive Flemington jumpout. ROBRICK (3) impressed when stepping up in trip at Flemington and will be better again. ROCKABILLY REBEL (1) wasn’t far away in Sydney last time out and should race on the pace. EL PODER DEL SOL (9) will be aimed at longer races in the spring but expect him to run on hard.
SUGGESTED BET: Ambassadorial each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Robrick $3.50 – $2.90.
RACE 4: 2:20PM SPRING DINING ON SALE HANDICAP (1600m)
HENNESSY LAD (7) worked hard before boxing on well for second at Flemington last time out but he’ll get a much softer run this time and can go one better. LEGEND OF DUBAI (8) closed well at his Australian debut and will enjoy stepping up in trip. HE’S THE REAL DEEL (4) did a good job when racing on the pace under a big weight at Sandown and drops 7kg on that run. IMA SHELBY (1) was a game first-up winner and will only be improved.
SUGGESTED BET: Hennessy Lad to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Hennessy Lad $5 – $3.20.
RACE 5: 2:55PM LADBROKES YARD COMMENTS HANDICAP (2500m)
BAINBRIDGE (4) has raced consistently throughout this campaign and did a great job when narrowly beaten here last time. He’ll be extremely hard to run down again. ZAYNUDIN (15) closed soundly over 2400m at Sandown and should get a good run here. MAGNASPIN (7) is untried over this trip but was a strong winner over 2040m last time out. MEINER LEGACY (10) ran on well late second-up and will be suited over this distance.
SUGGESTED BET: Bainbridge to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Magnaspin $3.90 – $2.90
RACE 6: 3:30PM LADBROKE IT! HANDICAP (1200m)
A strong field of three-year-old fillies will go around here. INHIBITIONS (3) was a certainty beaten in Sydney when finding trouble in the straight first-up but she’ll get every chance to atone at The Valley. WAIMARIE (12) was a solid first-up winner last time in and trialled well leading up to this. BEAUTY RISING (9) showed ability last time in can race handy if required. RIGHT TO PARTY (12) improved during her Queensland trip and can run well fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Inhibitions to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Inhibitions $4.80 – $3.80
RACE 7: 4:10PM RANVET HANDICAP (2040m)
Tricky race but FUTURE HISTORY (8) is capable of measuring up to this harder assignment after the import’s sound second over 2000m at Caulfield. Dropping to 51.5kg after Carleen Hefel’s claim will help. YOUNG WERTHER (1) returned to winning ways at Flemington before being freshened and he’s the class of the race. INTERPRETATION (3) closed strongly against the bias here first-up and looks to have come back well. JIMMY THE BEAR (4) is on trial at this trip but beat a good field at Caulfield last Saturday so must be respected.
SUGGESTED BET: Back both Future History and Young Werther.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Brayden Star $4.40 – $3.30.
RACE 8: 4:45PM LISTED PARAMOUNT LIQUOR CARLYON STAKES (1000m)
The pressure will be on from the outset in this speed contest. ACROMANTULA (7) showed enormous speed and was only grabbed late first-up. He meets his rivals much better at the weights and will be fitter. OMNI MAN (8) was unlucky not to score here last time and has drawn perfectly for this. HYPOTHETICAL (10) was competitive in tough races in the autumn and has trialled well. SWEET RIDE (1) showed plenty of fight to score here last time and should be around the mark.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 7, 8, 10
TAB MARKET MOVER: Acromantula $4.20 – $4.
RACE 9: 5:15PM BOOZEBUD HANDICAP (1500m)
The speed might not be that quick here, which could suit prolific winner ST LAWRENCE (7), who continues to rack up the successes and will be hard to hold out again. DENY KNOWLEDGE (6) went to another level last time in and could be hard to run down fresh. JUNIPAL (4) went down narrowly here last time out and will be thereabouts. KING MAGNUS (1) returns after being freshened and trialled well.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 6, 7/6, 7/ Field
TAB MARKET MOVER: French Emperor $12 – $9
RACE 10: 5:45PM DR SHEAHAN PLATE (1200m)
Another high-speed contest will end the meeting. PIONEER RIVER (6) could benefit from the extreme pressure up front and could enjoy the perfect run to score. GRINGOTTS (11) is a talented type resuming and will also enjoy the strong speed. SUPARAZI (8) will want further but he’s placed both first-up runs so watch for him late. SEONEE (1) won three in a row before a break and has the quality to show up fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Pioneer River each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Gringotts $8.50 – $4.80.
