Best MLB prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Thursday 8/10
The MLB slate is a little light this evening, with just four night games following four afternoon matchups. However, plenty of value can still be found on the SuperDraft player prop market, with four over/under props that stood out as particularly good bets.
One of our go-to strategies in both DFS and player prop betting is to attack matchups, especially batter-vs-pitcher matchups that historically favor the hitter. That blueprint rang true for us this evening, with the Phillies facing struggling Nationals veteran Patrick Corbin, the Cardinals drawing Zack Littell, and the Red Sox hosting Royals rookie Austin Cox.
With no truly dependable aces on the mound this evening, we're going all-in on offense with some of the most high-profile names in the world of baseball. So, let's have some fun and hopefully make some money on this quiet Thursday evening in the majors.
SuperDraft to pick your favorite over/unders via SuperDraft's Fantasy Props feature, bringing you closer to the action while having a chance to win cash prizes. Win 3X the amount wagered if your two-legged player prop parlay hits, and watch your potential payout rise with each additional leg you pile onto your parlay.
Below, we'll break down four of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Monday night's MLB slate. Users don't necessarily have to parlay all four picks together, though. Instead, you could make separate two-legged parlays to increase your win probability or attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through.
Best MLB prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Thursday 8/10
*10x potential payout if users parlay all four correct picks
1. Bryce Harper, OF/DH, Phillies vs. Nationals - OVER 6.5 fantasy points (4/5 confidence)
The Phillies draw a 6:40 p.m. ET home game against Nationals veteran Patrick Corbin, a pitcher Harper has eaten up throughout his career. In 45 career plate appearances against Corbin, the Phillies slugger has 11 hits, seven walks, and three doubles.
The two-time MVP has also been scorching at the plate since the calendar turned to August. He has 12 hits in the month, including two homers and five doubles. He also has seven RBIs since Aug. 1, a number he needed 17 games to reach in July. Philly has turned the heat up a bit in the NL playoff race, and Harper has his fingerprints all over the heat wave.
As for Corbin, things haven't been nearly as peachy. The 34-year-old southpaw has surrendered 15 earned runs over his past four starts and allowed at least six hits in three of those four starts. His ERA now sits north of 5.00 and his WHIP has been inching toward 1.50. He also has 11 losses, just a couple shy of MLB L-leader Jordan Lyles of the Royals (who also owns an MLB-worst 6.13 ERA).
Sorry, didn't mean to divert this discussion into the unofficial Roast of Patrick Corbin. Clearly, though, we're buying into Harper's OVER here. If you're not familiar with how fantasy points work, here's the skinny:
2. J.T. Realmuto, C/DH, Phillies vs. Nationals — OVER 0.5 singles (3.5/5 confidence)
We just got through eviscerating Corbin and pumping up Harper, so why not stay with this game and bet on Realmuto logging at least one single? The dude is 11-for-32 against the Nats pitcher throughout his career, and seven of his 11 hits have been singles.
We typically don't like to take too many players from the same squad in a player prop parlay, and Realmuto has been brutal at Citizens Bank Park this season. However, we'll make the exception here considering J.T. has a career .344/.389/.594 slash line against Corbin. One single is a pretty low bar to set for a three-time All-Star and Silver Slugger.
3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals @ Rays — OVER 6 fantasy points (3.5/5 confidence)
Another guy facing a pitcher he has destroyed in the past, Goldschmidt enters tonight's game in Tampa with five hits in seven plate appearances against the Rays' Zack Littell. Ready for his slash line in this head-to-head matchup? It's .833/.857/1.500. Good lord! We have tremendous faith in Goldy tonight, and little faith in Littell (sorry, we had to).
It's not just the batter-vs-pitcher data we like about this one. Goldschmidt has also turned it up a little over the past five games, posting six hits and three RBIs in that span. His career slugging percentage in August is .534, so we could be on the precipice of a Goldy surge (or should we say Gold rush?). Smash the OVER here.
4. Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox vs. Royals — OVER 1.5 bases (3/5 confidence)
The Red Sox draw rookie lefthander Austin Cox tonight, a youngster that has never had the displeasure of facing Devers. Expect Raffy to introduce himself with a bang, as he has smashed southpaws to the tune of a .284 average and .879 OPS this season.
This ranks as our lowest-confidence bet of the four because Devers has cooled down a bit as of late. However, we're confident enough in the slugger's ability to take it to the rookie and collect at least a couple of bases in the process.
