Betting the Premier League: Five Matches and Ten Bets for Matchweek 21
At the midpoint of the season, a couple thoughts before we dive into Matchweek 21 and a couple predictions for each of the five matches slated for the weekend.
With Kevin De Bruyne back on the pitch, does anyone believe City is not going to defend their league title again this season?
Which club missing one or more of its key pieces due to the Africa Cup of Nations will suffer the most damage according to the Table?
While Aston Villa was the biggest surprise of the first half of the season, which club will stand out in the second half?
Without a doubt, the parity at or near the Top of the Table in the first 20 matchweeks sets the League up for a tremendous finish potentially at the very top but certainly in the race to qualify for Europe.
As mentioned, Matchweek 21 is split into two weekends each containing five matches. We attack those five matches slated for this weekend in this article.
Friday, January 12, 2024
Burnley (-105) v. Luton Town (+275) | Draw: +260
Turf Moor is the scene for this basement battle. The Clarets are certainly in a more desperate position primarily because their form has not matched that of Luton Town of late as the Hatters have won three of their last four Premier League matches. That said, Burnley have played seven straight without a loss to Luton. In previous basement battles this season, we have anticipated tightly played, low-scoring affairs…and been wrong. Even though Lyle Foster (ankle) and Carlton Morris (calf) may each be out for their respective sides, the play is OVER 2.5 Total Goals (-115). I think Luton recognizes with a win they can realistically think about avoiding relegation. Combine that with their recent form and it will be a sweat, but take the Hatters to win (+275). If you are looking for a little less risk, BTTS (-130) is in play.
Saturday, January 13, 2024
Chelsea (-175) v. Fulham (+425) | Draw: +333
After struggling for the better part of the previous year at Stamford Bridge garnering only three wins, the Blues found success at home in December taking all nine possible points. It has been 45 years since Fulham have defeated Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and they defeated the Cottagers 2-0 at Craven Cottage in October. Fun fact: Chelsea has yet to go to halftime trailing in a Premier League game this season. Fulham have suffered four consecutive league losses away from home and have conceded at least three goals in each. The Cottagers have given up 23 goals on the road this season (2 worst mark in the league). Chelsea should be able to cobble together enough plays to secure the three points. The Blues to win but BTTS (+190). The sweat in this one will be Chelsea to win the 1H (+105). While they have not trailed at the half, the Blues have not led all that often either after 45’. With Broja expected back up front, though, it is worth a look.
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Newcastle (+425) v. Manchester City (-165) | Draw: +333
St. James Park is the site for this match between the Magpies and Citizens. This is a game featuring two sides going in opposite directions. Newcastle have lost four straight league matches and remain banged up especially on the back end while City have won five straight overall outscoring their opponents 17-1 in the process. Kevin De Bruyne is back and while he is not expected to start, his looming presence in the lineup surely must offer an additional jolt to City. All that said, Newcastle are on the verge of losing site of the competition for a spot in Europe next season. They are desperate to take a point or three from this one. Thus, expect Manchester City to score in both halves (+120) and City to collect OVER 5.5 corners (-115).
Sunday, January 14, 2024
Everton (+180) v. Aston Villa (+135) | Draw: +260
The Toffees have plummeted back to earth after a run of good form following their 10 point deduction as they are now winless in their last five Premier League matches. The Villains have won three straight at Goodison Park and are without a loss in their last nine (7-2-0) against Everton a streak that includes six clean sheets and five straight wins. The good news for Everton is Dominic Calvert Lewin is available following the reversal of his red card. Boubacar Kamara is back for Villa following his three-game suspension. Hard to see Everton righting the ship in this contest. Take Aston Villa ML (+135) and Aston Villa OVER 1.5 goals (+100).
Manchester United (+115) v. Tottenham (+195) | Draw: +290
Old Trafford is the site for this contest between a United side that has defined the term inconsistent all season hosting a Tottenham side playing well of late (4-0-1) but now absent one of the league’s top scorers (Heung-Min Son). Timo Werner has joined Spurs to help fill the void. The Red Devils have held the lead at halftime just once in their last eight matches at Old Trafford (1-1-6) while Spurs have conceded the first goal in just three of ten road games. Despite the struggles of Manchester United to score and Son’s absence for Tottenham, expect goals. This rivalry has seen 20 goals scored in the last six meetings. Would love to sweat Tottenham to lead at the break (+225) but the fireworks probably will not happen until the second half. BTTS in 2H (+140) is a fair look and because these clubs produce the most corners in the league, lets swing for OVER 11.5 Total Corners (+100).
Enjoy the first half of Matchweek 21…and enjoy the sweat.
