Blue Jays betting trends: Making an early Cy Young case for Kevin Gausman
This month’s schedule has been a trying test for the Toronto Blue Jays. And on even the most generous grading scale, they’re scraping by with a C+ at best.
Facing every AL East foe, as well as the World-Series-favoured Atlanta Braves, Toronto posted a 10-16 record entering the May 29 off-day. Opportunities to gain ground in this daunting division are few, and the Jays have already squandered plenty of them.
The good news is that exactly two-thirds of the schedule still lies ahead. To learn more about where Toronto stands right now, let’s dig into some Blue Jays betting trends.
Blue Jays betting trends
Gausman's Cy Young check-in
Toronto’s decision two winters ago to move on from Robbie Ray (then the reigning AL Cy Young winner) and bring in Kevin Gausman has aged really, really well.
And now, Gausman is a name to be thinking about in the AL Cy Young race.
The veteran right-hander currently holds 17-to-1 odds, sitting behind Gerrit Cole, Shane McClanahan, Shohei Ohtani and others. But you don’t have to squint to see Gausman’s case for this award.
He leads 34 qualified AL pitchers in fWAR (2.4) and ranks in the top five of some other crucial categories: K/9 (11.7, second), FIP (2.53, fourth), chase rate (36.5%, fourth) and innings (68.1, fifth).
Although his K/9 is through the roof and his HR/9 (0.79) is near the floor, Gausman’s primary struggle has been contact quality. According to Baseball Savant, 43.9% of balls in play against Gausman have a 95+ mph exit velocity, which ranks in the 24th percentile.
Consequently, his batting average on balls in play (.327) is much higher than the league average (.296).
Still, he’s easily been the Blue Jays’ most reliable arm. Through 11 starts, Gausman has had two blowups and nine beauties.
Together, his April 17 start in Houston and his May 4 start in Boston account for 15 of his 23 earned runs. He’s on a nice run right now, though, posting a 1.71 ERA over his past four outings.
All in all, Gausman has played the ace role admirably — and we’re officially putting him on Cy Young watch.
Pumping the brakes on Belt, Kiermaier
Pop quiz: Who’ve been the Blue Jays’ top three hitters by wRC+ this month?
The unsurprising answer is Bo Bichette, and the other two answers are featured in the subhead. Yes, Kevin Kiermaier (184 wRC+) and Brandon Belt (165) are on one right now.
Given Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s current slump (.487 OPS in his past 12 games) and George Springer’s mediocre output so far (104 OPS+ on the season), it’s been nice to see some big numbers from the newcomers.
There are some discouraging peripherals in both Belt and Kiermaier’s respective performances, though ... so maybe just enjoy it while it lasts.
Belt has slashed .328/.456/.469 in May, but his Baseball Savant page still looks like this:
This month, he’s outperforming his expected batting average (.219) by 109 points. And although his 13.9% walk rate is great, his 37.5% strikeout rate is second-worst among all MLB hitters with 140-plus plate appearances.
Moving on to Kiermaier, we’re looking at a player who can provide ample value merely with his glove and legs. But again, the Baseball Savant scorecard is far from pristine:
Kiermaier’s .289 xBA is confounding when you consider he’s a much softer hitter than most of the league. But it has something to do with a very specific type of batted ball that the outfielder has produced.
According to Baseball Savant, 33.3% of Kiermaier’s balls in play have been flares (soft liners that bloop into the outfielder) or burners (sharply-hit ground balls). That contact type has yielded a .675 batting average this year.
Given Kiermaier’s batted-ball profile, we can infer that most of those balls in play have been flares. His 33.3% flare/burner rate is the highest of his career, and almost certainly unsustainable.
Blue Jays betting trends: Squishing the injury bug
In a long season, injuries are an inevitability. But the Blue Jays are still waiting for that shoe to drop.
Toronto has only had seven players on the injured list this year for a cumulative 250 days spent on the IL. Those are the third-lowest respective totals in the majors, above only the Guardians and Orioles.
For context, the Yankees have had 697 cumulative IL days, which is the most in the majors, per Spotrac.
Feel free to give a hat tip to the folks running Toronto’s strength and conditioning programs, but there’s definitely some good fortune at play, too.
Amazingly, the Blue Jays have only used five starters so far. That’s been particularly fortuitous because starting depth is a major issue — especially with Hyun-Jin Ryu and Mitch White still out.
Eventually, Toronto is bound to face some injury-related turmoil. Horseshoes, rabbit’s feet and knocks on wood can only carry a club for so long.
Springer's resurgence
When we last assessed some Blue Jays betting trends two and a half weeks ago, Springer was in an offensive tailspin. But since then, he’s been blazing hot.
In 16 starts since May 12, Springer has a .354/.432/.585 slash line and has reached safely in all but one of those games.
From a prop market perspective, Springer has scored a run in 10 of 16 starts and tallied multiple bases eight times.
A point of emphasis regarding Springer’s slump was that some of his expected stats were far greater than his actual stats. That narrative has shifted recently, though, as the leadoff man has a .354 BA since May 12 — and a .303 xBA in the same span.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
