Braves vs. Phillies odds, picks: Advanced computer MLB model releases selections for NLDS Game 3 matchup

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies meet for Game 1 of the NLDS at 5:07 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The series is knotted at 1-1. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Philadelphia as a -123 favorite on the money line, while the over/under is set at 9 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our MLB odds page). Aaron Nola will start for Philadelphia, while the Braves haven't confirmed a starter as of Wednesday morning.

Before making any Braves vs. Phillies picks, you NEED to check out the MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the second week of the 2023 MLB playoffs 92-74 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns!

The model knows the Braves are powerful on offense. Atlanta showed that upside with five runs in a comeback win in Game 2, and the Braves led the league in runs scored, hits, batting average, home runs, OPS and total bases. Atlanta also set a new MLB record with a team slugging percentage of .501 this season. 

The model has also factored in that Phillies have a proven entity on the mound in Nola. The former All-Star threw seven shutout innings in his first playoff start against Miami, and he allowed only three runs over 12.2 innings in his final two regular season starts. Nola also had a 3.29 ERA in home outings during the 2023 regular season.

Now, it has set its sights on Braves vs. Phillies. We can tell you the model is leaning Over the total, and it also says one side of the money line has ALL the value! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any MLB picks.