Brewers vs. Pirates odds, line, prediction: 2022 MLB picks, Thursday, April 28 best bets from proven model

Pittsburgh Pirates host Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday at 12:35 p.m. ET. Pittsburgh is 1-3 in the last four games, including back-to-back losses to the Brewers. Milwaukee is 12-7, while Pittsburgh's record is 8-10 to begin the 2022 season. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored is 7.5, and the over-under is also 7,5. SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and it's on a 25-11 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks through three weeks.

Brewers vs. Pirates is Thursday, April 28. Pittsburgh Pirates are 4-4 at home and Milwaukee Brewers are 7-5 on the road. The money line is Brewers -170, Pirates +150.

Brewers are 7-4 on the road and 4-5 at home.

Milwaukee has won the first two games of the series. Pittsburgh has a starting pitcher with an unsightly 5.96 ERA since the start of 2021. Milwaukee's bullpen has 3.25 ERA in 69.1 innings. The Brewers rank in the top three of National League in wins above replacement from relievers.

Brewers and Pirates are playing on Thursday, April 28. Pittsburgh has a strong bullpen and a veteran starter in Jose Quintana. Milwaukee is below-average on offense. The Pirates have a better walk rate than the Brewers.

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the run total and projects 7.9 combined runs. One side of the money line has all the value.