Chase Elliott’s 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds Fading Fast

After finishing with the most points in the regular season last year, Chase Elliott will have to reach the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs the hard way. With four races remaining in the regular season, Elliott will have to win one to become playoff eligible. Currently, Elliott is +1600 to win the Cup Series after opening the season at +575 with Bovada.

This year hasn’t exactly gone according to plan for Elliott. Following a regular-season title last season, Elliott entered the 2023 campaign with lofty expectations.

The driver of the No. 9 Chevy for Hendrick Motorsports had a strong showing in the second event of the season at Auto Club Speedway, but his season would soon unravel.

Elliott struggled out of the gate in the Daytona 500. He didn’t finish the race after crashing out to finish 38. However, Elliott was able to respond the following week to cross the finishing line in second. That was when the season came to a frustrating halt for Elliott.

On a snowboarding trip with friends in Colorado, Elliott broke his leg in early March. Elliott underwent surgery the same day to repair a broken left tibia. The surgery resulted in Elliott having screws inserted into his leg.

While the rest of the full-time Cup Series drivers have raced in 22 races, Elliott has only had 15 starts in 2023. If he didn’t miss those races, it is extremely likely that the No. 9 car would be projected to go to the Playoffs.

According to NASCAR.com Playoff projections, Elliott will come four spots shy of qualifying for the Playoffs. Currently, Michael McDowell, Bubba Wallace, and Brad Keselowski have the final three spots.

McDowell is one of the biggest beneficiaries of Elliott’s struggle to clinch. Despite finishing in the Top 5 in only one race in 22 starts, McDowell is the last driver in at 16, according to the final projections. This likely comes as a surprise to some race fans.

With that in mind, Buescher and McDowell could be in the Playoffs and not Elliott. Martin Truex Jr. continues to lead the field with 744 points.

The 43-year-old veteran has notched three wins and eight Top 5 performances. In 2023, he is the most consistent driver in the NASCAR Cup Series by a good amount. Denny Hamlin’s 705 points is good for second behind Elliott, but he is projected to finish third with William Byron finishing second.

Elliott is not the only Hendrick Motorsport driver that is looking for a spot in the Playoffs. Alex Bowman, who is having a frustrating campaign, does not have a guaranteed position in the Round of 16. When Bowman is running well, he runs into a bad situation and is taken out of contention.

Bowman had a great run at Pocono two weeks ago before failing to finish strong. He was in the Top 10 for most of the race and flirted with the Top 5 before falling back with less than ten laps remaining. The 30-year-old driver of the No. 48 car is two points behind Elliott for 21st in the Cup Series standings.

Bowman has huge odds to win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. Despite being only two points behind Elliott, Bowman has +7500 odds as opposed to +1600. According to the odds at BetUS, neither driver is a threat to Truex Jr., who won the 2017 Cup Series title. Truex Jr. has also finished second three times in the last five years in the Cup Series.

Currently, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Truex Jr. has the best odds to win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship at +450. Even though Kyle Larson has just the eighth-most points this season, he has the second-best odds to win the Cup Series title at +600.