Denise Kielholtz vs Ilara Joanne Betting Picks and Prediction

With Bellator 289 coming this Friday, December 9th, there will be a stacked card full of very competitive fights.

One of the most competitive fights on the prelims will be a women’s flyweight bout between Denise Kielholtz (6-4) and Ilara Joanne (10-6). Follow along for an in-depth betting analysis and the official Kielholtz vs Joanne pick for Bellator 289.

Kielholtz vs. Joanne Fight Info and Analysis

Matchup Info 

This flyweight matchup will be taking place at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, on Friday, December 9th.

• Prelim 5:25 PM ET
• Main Card 9 PM ET
• Showtime

Denise Kielholtz Performance Recap and Analysis

Kielholtz has a lot of experience in combat sports. Outside of her 10-fight MMA career, she holds a 47-3 professional kickboxing record and is a five-time world champion of kickboxing. In her transition to MMA, she has shown some struggles with the other areas of martial arts other than striking.

She is coming off back-to-back losses in Bellator, one being a very close split decision loss to a tough Juliana Velasquez in a title fight. Her last appearance in the Bellator cage was in May of 2022 when she got caught in a triangle submission and lost to Kana Watanabe. Kielholtz will be primed to get back in the winning column with this matchup on Friday.

Kielholtz has a 3-2 record in her last five bouts, where she was the betting favorite in each besides her fight against Velasquez. She finished all three of those wins, including two submissions. Very impressive for a long-time kickboxer.

Ilara Joanne Performance Recap and Analysis

Joanne has 16 career professional MMA fights with ten wins. Out of those ten wins, she has seven total finishes. She is coming off a good unanimous decision victory over Alejandra Lara in June of 2022. 

In Joanne’s Bellator career, she is 2-2 with a one submission victory. She was finished by Kana Watanabe via TKO with less than 30 seconds left of the fight. Joanne started her professional career over nine years ago as a 19-year-old. For only being 28 years old, she has a lot of experience. 

An interesting trend for Joanne’s time in Bellator is that she has been the betting underdog in every single one of her fights, according to MMA odds. She beat Bec Rawlings in her Bellator debut as a big +220 underdog at the closing lines. 

Kielholtz vs. Joanne Odds

Denise Kielholtz is the betting favorite at -150 as fight night closes in. Joanne is yet again the underdog with +130 odds against the former 5-time kickboxing world champion. 

The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds (-115), and there are many other interesting prop bets to look at as the fight gets closer. The” fight to go the distance, yes” prop is at +105, and if you answer no, it is at -120. 

For either one of the women to win by decision is +305. This is a lot of value for a women’s division where the majority of fights go to the judges scorecards. There are a lot of things to look at before making a Kielholtz vs Joanne pick.

Kielholtz vs. Joanne Betting Picks

There are many different ways to go about betting on this Bellator 289 bout. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, and you can use those odds to hedge whatever bet you want to make. 

For the moneyline, the best value is going to be Joanne to win (+130) because she is in plus-odds. Kielholtz could very easily be out-wrestled and grinded to a decision victory for Joanne.

Kielholtz vs. Joanne Fight Prediction

The final prediction for this bout, and the best Kielholtz vs Joanne pick is: Kielholtz winning inside the distance. MMA picks are so difficult to make because of the unpredictability of the sport.

She is going to be able to get off her strikes first and be the quicker one to the spot. She has years of world-class kickboxing and will use that as her main weapon. She has the speed and timing advantage.

Also, Joanne’s chin has shown to not be the best, so Kielholtz might hurt her early on, and the beginning of the end may start early. This is such a close fight that betting the prop “fight ends inside the distance, yes” is probably your best chance. 

Kielholtz has shown some holes in her submission defense and can very well be submitted. Wait as long as you can to see if those Bellator odds get closer to the plus side of things.

Bellator MMA Pick: Fight to end inside the distance, yes (-120)

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