Diamondbacks vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, Odds

The second half of the MLB season gets underway at Rogers Centre when the Toronto Blue Jays host the Arizona Diamondbacks. Our MLB expert expects the home side to come flying out of the break and lead start to finish.

The Toronto Blue Jays come out of the All-Star break with a 50-41 record, which is the best mark they've had at the unofficial midway point in each of the last three seasons. But by all accounts, Toronto has not lived up to expectations.

So, the Jays will be looking for some improved play quickly. But they’ll get put to the test right away as they welcome the National League West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks to town.

Toronto hands the ball to the resurgent Jose Berrios for the opener, while Arizona counters with a right-hander of their own in Ryne Nelson. With an edge in starters the Blue Jays are sizeable home favorites in this interleague matchup, but do the D-backs have value as road dogs?

I break down the MLB odds, bring you my best bet, and even a same-game parlay in tonight’s MLB picks and predictions Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays.

Diamondbacks vs Blue Jays odds

Diamondbacks vs Blue Jays predictions

To Toronto Blue Jays fans it probably doesn’t feel like the team should be nine games over .500 and in the second wild-card spot in the American League. But that’s what talent can do for you and it’s clear that most players and people around the team will tell you we haven’t seen their best baseball yet.

Getting the second half of the season off to a good start will be very important with the trade deadline just a few weeks away. So, handing the ball to Jose Berrios in the opener of tonight’s series against the Arizona Diamondbacks is a good start.

The Berrios bounce back has been one of the better stories for the Jays in the first half of the season. The right-hander had a downright awful 2022 and after a couple of tough starts to begin the year, many wondered if 2023 would be more of the same.

But that hasn’t been the case. Berrios has pretty much been great in the first half. He is pitching to a 2.80 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .220 batting average over his last 15 starts. Arizona poses a tough lineup featuring the likes of All-Star Corbin Carroll, but Berrios has put up strong performances against other top teams like the Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, and the Tampa Bay Rays.

Countering Berrios is Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson. It is the 25-year-old’s first year as a full-time starter and there have definitely been some growing pains.

Nelson is pitching to an expected ERA of 4.97 while surrendering a .267 expected batting average, a .462 expected slugging percentage, and is striking out just 16% of the batters he has faced. All of them rank in the Bottom 19% or worse in the MLB.

Now, the Jays have had some struggles cashing in runners, but overall they rank sixth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and sixth in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.

If you can find the Blue Jays on the five-inning runline I would take that, but for now, the best bet will be backing them to put the first runs on the board.

My best bet: Team to score first - Blue Jays (-105 at SPORTS INTERACTION)

Diamondbacks vs Blue Jays same-game parlay

Blue Jays score first

Blue Jays ML first-five

Belt 1+ hit

Under 9.5

Tonight’s same-game parlay is a bit of a fade of poor Ryne Nelson. The advance numbers aren’t great for the kid, and the Blue Jays tend to have more success vs. right-handed pitching this season. So, let’s start with Toronto scoring first. And as hinted at above, I like the Blue Jays to hold a lead through five innings, so let’s add that next.

So, who is one of those Jays who could be a problem for Nelson? Let’s look beyond guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette and toward Brandon Belt. The veteran Belt has quietly been one of the Blue Jays' best hitters. Belt is hitting .279 with an .889 OPS since the start of May and Nelson is a .286 average and a .766 OPS to left-handed hitters.

All that said, while I think the Jays will get off to a strong start tonight, the full-game total still looks a touch high to me. Even if things get a bit wonky of Nelson he’s backed up by a solid Arizona bullpen. So, let’s close this SGP parlay out with the Under 9.5.

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Diamondbacks vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as healthy -175 favorites, but they have been bet down to -170 at some shops. That is showing respect for what the Diamondbacks have accomplished in the first half of the season. The lineups and bullpens are close to wash here, but the edge is starting pitching can’t be overlooked. 

On top of that, Berrios is pitching at the Rogers Centre, a place where he has been very comfortable this year. Berrios is pitching to a 2.98 ERA while limiting opponents to a .220 batting average at home. So, even at -170, I would have a slight lean toward the home team.

When it comes to the total it hit the board at 9 and that’s where it sits as of Friday afternoon. I’ve written at length about Berrios' success. But both teams boast bullpens that rank in the Top 10 in xFIP, so scoring later in the game could be difficult. Mix in the fact Toronto still ranks 25th in batting average with runners in scoring position and I would have a slight lean to the Under tonight.

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Trend to know

The Blue Jays have hit the first five-inning team total Over in nine of their last 15 games at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays

Diamondbacks vs Blue Jays game info

Starting pitchers

Ryne Nelson (5-5, 5.19 ERA): Nelson is one of the few D-backs players who had a tough first half of the season. Just five of his 18 starts have been quality starts and he is surrendering a .828 OPS to opponents this season. 

Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.50 ERA): Berrios' return to form this season was been welcomed and frankly, needed for the Jays. He has pitched at least six innings and limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 15 starts.