Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini Pick, 11/11/2023 Predictions UFC 295 Odds

Madison Square Garden in New York City

Saturday, November 11, 2023

Diego Lopes will take on Pat Sabatini at UFC 295 on Saturday, November 11, 2023. The odds have Lopes priced at +102 while Sabatini is coming in at -120.

Diego Lopes looks to add a win to his record of 22-6-0. The 28-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter reaches 72". Pat Sabatini measures in at 5'8" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 18-4-0. The 32-year-old extends his reach 70". Concerning significant strikes, Diego Lopes lands 2.12 per minute and Pat Sabatini is landing 1.95 significant strikes per min. Lopes lands 50% of the significant strikes he tries while Sabatini connects on 59%. When it comes to defending themselves, Lopes absorbs 4.92 significant strikes per min and Sabatini allows 1.35. Lopes also thwarts 36% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way and Sabatini is able to deflect 51% of the strikes thrown his way.

In the category of takedowns, Diego Lopes is the lesser skilled grappler as he is able to score a takedown 0.70 times per 15 min. Lopes is finishing his takedown attempts on 15% of the times he tries and is defending 33% of all takedown tries against him. Sabatini is scoring a takedown on 45% of his takedown attempts and stopping 42% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding submission attempts, Lopes is the more skilled technician by trying 5.6 submissions per 15 minutes while Sabatini attempts 1.9 submissions per 3 rounds.

In his previous fight, Diego Lopes fought Gavin Tucker and wound up getting the victory by a triangle armbar in round 1. Tucker ended up landing 0 of 6 total strikes that he let go. Lopes ended the night having landed 0 of 4 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Tucker landed 0 of 6, giving him a percentage of 0%. He finished the fight landing 0 of 6 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Lopes landed 0% of his significant strikes by connecting on 0 of 4. Out of those significant strikes, he was 0 of 3 aimed at the head. 0% of the significant strikes landed by Tucker and 33% of them connected on by Lopes were thrown at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Pat Sabatini, he squared up with Lucas Almeida and wound up getting the win via an arm triangle in round 2. Almeida ended up connecting on 50% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Sabatini ended up connecting on 3% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Sabatini ended up connecting on 77% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 27 of 35. He connected on 25 of 32 significant strikes to the head. Almeida ended up connecting on 2 of 4 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 0 of 2 aimed at the head. Regarding the total strikes thrown in this fight, Almeida was 3 of 5 and Sabatini connected on 88 of 97 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts on the card to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Steve Erceg meets Alessandro Costa. Erceg walks into the cage with a record of 10-1-0. The 28-year-old records a weight of 125 lbs and stands in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 68". Costa measures 5'4" and will fight at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 13-3-0. The 27-year-old reaches 67". In terms of takedowns, Steve Erceg takes his opponents to the canvas 3.00 times per 15 minutes while Alessandro Costa takes his opponents to the canvas 0.50 times per 15 minutes. In the striking category, Erceg lands 3.60 strikes per min and connects on 38% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Alessandro Costa, who lands 43% of his attempted strikes and lands 3.82 per min.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Nurullo Aliev is set to take on Mateusz Rebecki. Rebecki has a mark of 17-1-0. The 31-year-old is weighing in at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 66". Aliev comes in at 5'10" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 9-0-0. The 22-year-old has an arm span of 72". Concerning grappling, Mateusz Rebecki is thwarting 66% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is taking his opponents down on 66% of the times he tries. Aliev is taking his opponents to the mat on 44% of the attempts he tries and defends against 15% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the matter of striking, Rebecki is absorbing 2.18 strikes per min and he is dealing 5.57 strikes/min. Aliev, on the other hand, absorbs 0.46 strikes per min and connects on 2.50 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Pat Sabatini (-120)

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