Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Predictions, Picks, Odds

Covers

11 October 2023

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Los Angeles Dodgers are in an unfamiliar position with the Diamondbacks one win away from sending them packing. With Lance Lynn taking the mound, our MLB picks don't believe the Dodgers have a chance at winning.

The Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves in a rare position on Wednesday, staring down the barrel of a sweep at the hands of their division rival. MLB odds have L.A. as the favorite to avoid losing three straight, but our MLB picks have other thoughts in mind.

If Arizona can flex its muscles and pull off the improbable sweep, its World Series odds could take a major jump — and that outcome may be more likely than some think. Find out why I believe the D-Backs will win in my Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks betting preview, and don't forget to also check out Covers' MLB playoff predictions

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Game 3 odds

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks series odds

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks predictions

I know it may feel like the Los Angeles Dodgers will win this game, but there’s little evidence to back that up. You will not make money in the long run betting on narratives and what your gut says — you need to trust the data in front of you.

The harsh reality is that the Dodgers’ two best chances to win a game in this series have come and gone. Clayton Kershaw was their sturdiest pitcher all year and he was lit up for six runs in the first inning of this series, and following him Bobby Miller — the future ace of this staff — was also unable to shut down Arizona’s bats.

L.A. is now left with no choice but to start Lance Lynn. The 36-year-old has shown all the signs of a pitcher ready to retire, coming over from the White Sox midseason and posting a 4.36 ERA in 11 starts with Los Angeles.

He’s seen his xBA rise to a career high and his strikeout rate a season low in September at under 17%. Worst of all, Lynn has found a way to surrender 16 runs in just 64 innings for the Dodgers and will be up against the Arizona Diamondbacks: A team that has slugged nine home runs in just four games.

This is a nightmare scenario for the Dodgers, who had the second-best offense in baseball this season but have been sleepwalking at the plate all series. Brandon Pfaadt may not be my favorite pitcher in the world, but he’s a hell of a lot better than Lynn and has at least been improving over the last few months — growing in confidence and sporting some excellent strikeout and walk numbers.

You don’t anticipate L.A. getting swept at this stage of the postseason, but its two best chances to win games in this series have come and gone.

My best bet: Diamondbacks moneyline (+110 at BetMGM)

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Dodgers vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay

Diamondbacks ML

Pfaadt 4+ Ks

Lynn 2+ BB

I’m really keying in on this pitching matchup here, so I’m going to build this parlay over at DraftKings where I can pick from plenty of pitching props.

First of all, let’s talk about Pfaadt. He wasn’t much of a strikeout pitcher when he first arrived in the big leagues, which is to be expected for a young hurler, but he quickly turned things around after being recalled in July. He’s not only pitched better in the strikeout department but has been well above average since his return to the rotation while posting a 27.3% strikeout rate in September.

Los Angeles doesn't strike out a ton, but this isn’t a huge number on Pfaadt’s Ks. He struck out four Dodgers earlier this season and has now achieved four punchouts in 11 straight starts. The nature of this outing could be different given you normally don’t have a very long leash in the postseason, but with the way this L.A. offense is running and given Pfaadt’s significant improvements, I do think he’ll stick around long enough to hit four Ks.

Then, there’s Lynn. The only thing preventing him from walking two batters here could be a first-inning hook. He’s now walked two or more in six straight starts as he continues to have issues finding his spots and will pitch to a D-Backs team that has been pretty patient this October. This is bad news for Lynn.

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Dodgers vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The splits on this one have been interesting to follow. While the D-Backs garnered a ton of early love with 69% of the bets and 89% of the handle, those numbers have turned back the other way. This game’s now taken in a 50/50 split on bets over at DraftKings, with 59% of the handle coming in on L.A.

I’m more interested in the total, with 61% of the bets on the Over 9.5 and 75% of the handle coming in on that bet. I love the Over in this game with Pfaadt’s inconsistency at this level and Lynn’s awful season to this point. While the Dodgers’ bullpen has pitched excellently through two games, they’ve also expended a ton of high-leverage arms and may run into a bit of fatigue here.

Ultimately, one of these pitchers is going to blow up. I do think it’ll be Lynn, but at any rate, this Over should hit with the way Arizona has hit.

Trend to know

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.90 Units / 17% ROI) Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game info

Starting pitchers

Lance Lynn (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The Diamondbacks rookie pitched to a putrid 9.82 ERA in six starts when he was first brought up to the big leagues. He was promptly sent down to Triple-A, and when he returned in July he posted a much better 4.22 ERA to close out the year.

Brandon Pfaadt (0-0, 10.13 ERA): The 36-year-old is a broken man. He’s actually seemed to get worse since joining the Dodgers, watching his expected batting average rise to roughly .250 with worsening strikeout numbers. Lynn is a shell of his former self.