F1 Hungarian Grand Prix odds, preview, podium predictions: Red Bull goes for record-setting win

This Formula One season has, of course, been dominated by Max Verstappen and Red Bull. This weekend at the Hungarian Grand Prix that dominance can turn into history.

Red Bull cars have won all 10 races this season, eight for Verstappen and two for Sergio Pérez, and won the finale last year. That’s 11 straight grand prix victories, which matches the most consecutive wins by a constructor in F1 history (McLaren in 1988). A Red Bull win in Hungary would be a new F1 record.

Verstappen is -350 on BetMGM to win this weekend. Throw in either Red Bull driver winning and the odds become a whopping -550 (2-to-11).

Those numbers are bleak if you’re looking for more parity at the top of the grid. However, if you are willing to look past the top of the podium, it has been a largely unpredictable season.

Eight drivers from six teams have gotten on the podium through 10 races. Fernando Alonso was racking up podiums like crazy early on, then Lewis Hamilton and the Mercedes cars shot up a bit and now McLaren seems to have joined the best of the non-Red Bull category. Pérez’s recent qualifying struggles, five straight Q1 eliminations in the fastest car on the grid, have helped to jumble things up a bit as well.

Is that enough to keep things interesting this weekend? Esteban Ocon did win in Hungary two years ago in a wild, wet race. That’s one of the more surprising F1 wins in recent memory.

It’s not expected to be wet this weekend, but warm temperatures will stress the cars in a different way. The Hungaroring only has one long straight, which is the start/finish straight. It’s a lot of low- and medium-speed corners.

It’s a different type of track than what Silverstone and the Red Bull Ring offered the last two weeks. If McLaren does well in Hungary, that car really is near the top of the field. Lando Norris was third in the odds earlier in the week and has dropped a bit since, but is still among the contenders.

Hungarian Grand Prix odds

This race also features the debut of the first in-season driver change. Daniel Ricciardo is back after replacing Nyck de Vries at AlphaTauri. The head-to-head odds between Ricciardo and teammate Yuki Tsunoda give Tsunoda an edge in Ricciardo’s first race back.

Tsunoda has just two points this year, but the AlphaTauri could be the worst car on the grid. Can Ricciardo get more out of it? For more on that and other race predictions, The Athletic’s F1 crew answered questions to preview the Hungarian Grand Prix.

Lando Norris is near the top in the odds. How real are the McLaren upgrades? Are they podium contenders the rest of the way or was Silverstone a fluke?

Jeff Gluck: It’s hard to picture Silverstone being a one-off great race, because it’s clear they had speed in both cars. That makes me believe their upgrades are legit. Will they be effective at every track? Eh, maybe not. But I’d lean toward thinking they’ve found something to get them in the ballpark at least.

Jordan Bianchi: If you believe the speed McLaren had at Silverstone will carry over beyond that weekend, then yes. But a sample size consisting of just a single race is too small to inspire confidence going forward. Let’s see what speed McLaren has on the Hungaroring — a much different and slower track than Silverstone — before we give full credence that the team is a contender again.

What are your expectations for Daniel Ricciardo? Could he outperform Yuki Tsunoda?

Jeff Gluck: He should be able to consistently get into the points. Beyond that, I’m not sure. Being back in the Red Bull family certainly seems to be a proper fit for him mentally, and his spirit seems restored. But this is a tough sport, and all it will take are a couple disappointing setbacks to lose the good vibes. He should be able to outperform Tsunoda after he gets a few races under his belt, but even if not, he can’t do any worse than de Vries.

Bianchi: Depends on what version of Ricciardo we’re seeing. Is it the version that looked largely indifferent over the past few years and wasn’t able to squeeze maximum performance out of his car, or is it a highly motivated Ricciardo, who’s hungry to prove himself and find his way back to Red Bull? The guess here is that good vibes won’t last, with it becoming apparent why McLaren had no qualms casting Ricciardo aside.

How do you think Williams (11 points), Haas (11) and Alfa Romeo (9) will shake out by the end of the season?

Gluck: Williams briefly showed a glimmer of hope at Silverstone, but it didn’t last once the race began. That said, Alex Albon has been on top of his game lately and seems to be elevating the team. It’s hard to have much faith in Haas at the moment and I have no idea what’s going on with Alfa, so I’ll go with the team that at least showed some promise with Williams.

Bianchi: Nothing Alfa Romeo has done inspires any confidence, while Haas flashes glimmers of potential only to then revert back to its usual form. That leaves Williams, where Albon has impressed, getting somewhat consistent results. So out this woeful trio, the pick is Williams.

Max Verstappen has won six straight races. How many races will the streak go on for?

Gluck: I have two daughters, ages 4 and 2. When the last one gets married and I’m walking her down the aisle, someone in the audience watching the F1 race will suddenly yell out: “No way!” Everyone will turn around, thinking it’s because they’re objecting to the wedding. But in reality, their cry will be in reaction to finally seeing Verstappen lose a race, ending his streak at 466 straight victories.

Bianchi: Whenever this season he magnanimously pulls aside to allow Sergio Pérez to pass him as a gesture for being such a great and unselfish teammate. Just kidding. Verstappen would never do such a thing. Therefore he’s never going to lose a race this season. Or ever.

Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium in Hungary?

Gluck: Verstappen, Leclerc, Hamilton

Bianchi: Verstappen, Alonso, Pérez