F1 Belgian Grand Prix odds, preview, podium predictions: Max Verstappen goes for third straight win in Belgium

Max Verstappen looks to win his third straight Belgian Grand Prix at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps this weekend. Verstappen is a big favorite (-350) to win again in his birth country. It should be noted that the 2021 race was never run under a green flag and only completed two laps due to weather.

Verstappen won from the 14th starting spot in the grid last year, so even if qualifying goes poorly again this year, he should be able to climb back up the field and contend to win his 10th race of 2023. He set the Formula One record with 15 wins last year, which he can break again with 11 races remaining.

Red Bull now owns the Formula One record for most races won in a row with 12.

One storyline to watch this week is that McLaren may have the second-best car right now. Lando Norris is the second-favorite to win this race at +1000. While McLaren might have one of the best cars, it sits in fifth place in the constructors standings. For more on that and other race predictions, The Athletic’s F1 crew answered questions to preview the Belgian Grand Prix.

McLaren is 80 points behind Ferrari, 97 behind Aston Martin and 136 behind Mercedes, but at the moment seems to have the second-best car. Can they catch any of these teams?

Madeline Coleman: If McLaren’s development continues to follow a similar trajectory, it could come close to Aston Martin, which given where McLaren started this season feels wild to say. The Woking-based crew went from fighting to make it out of Q1 to now mega point hauls (and Lando Norris taking home consecutive podium finishes). The Belgian GP weekend, which includes a sprint race, will be the fourth race to really prove if the upgrades work.

Luke Smith: I still want a couple more races to see how genuine McLaren’s status as the second-quickest team is. But to have been so strong on two very different tracks like Silverstone and the Hungaroring bodes well. If it can keep up this current form, I reckon overhauling Ferrari and Aston Martin is within reach, but Mercedes I think is too quick and too far ahead right now. It’ll be a close fight nonetheless.

Jeff Gluck: I didn’t see this improvement coming from McLaren at all, and it’s still new enough to ask if it’s real. But back-to-back P2s for Norris – the first time in his career he’s had consecutive podiums – is pretty hard to discount. Can it last? And can we assume the others stay stagnant long enough to be caught? Those seem like tall orders, although Aston seems to be faltering quite a bit from their early-season pace.

Jordan Bianchi: If McLaren remains at the pace it’s shown the past two races, then catching any or all of the aforementioned teams is a possibility as having your drivers finish on the podium consistently allows one to overcome a healthy points deficit. The unknown, however, is whether McLaren can continue this form or if another team will hit on something and suppress them. And in a season that’s been partially defined by parity (Red Bull is the notable exception), doubt exists that McLaren can maintain this pace for a prolonged stretch.

After getting six podium finishes in the first eight races, Fernando Alonso is sliding down the field in the last three races (fifth, seventh, ninth in that order). How many more podiums are you expecting Alonso to get this season?

Coleman: I sat down with team principal Mike Krack on Thursday for our first guest mailbag, and one question we discussed is what tracks will the car be most comfortable at. Without giving away too much of the answer (you’ll need to read the mailbag during summer break to get the full scoop), keep an eye on the street circuits. I feel we may see another Alonso podium later this season.

Smith: Aston Martin has definitely slipped back lately, and I don’t buy the theory it’s all down to the tire construction change. I still think Alonso will get another couple of podiums this year, given how close the fight is right now to be next-best behind Red Bull, but I think he’s already had the bulk of success this year.

Gluck: Remember when Alonso was going to be on the podium every race for the rest of the season? Yeah…so about that. Now that McLaren is looking stronger and Mercedes has gained speed and Ferrari is still capable, there’s just not much room for Alonso to grab a podium spot behind the Red Bulls.

Bianchi: Conventional wisdom suggests that Alonso should be able to score at least another podium in one of the remaining 11 races, even if Aston Martin’s performance has tailed off to some degree. But it certainly won’t be easy, all of which underscores the missed opportunities Aston Martin let slip away at the beginning of the season. Because as things stand presently, the notion that Alonso is on the cusp of finally snapping his lengthy winless drought has come and gone.

With well-known qualifying struggles and now a crash early in practice, do you think Sergio Pérez will be at Red Bull through end of his contract (through 2024) or will they make a switch before then?

Coleman: Given Red Bull’s track record when it comes to Verstappen’s teammates, it’s reasonable to ask this question. Pérez still manages to pull it together on race day, such as his six-spot charge in Hungary; therefore, I believe he’d remain with the Milton Keynes-based team at least for the remainder of his contract. The key is finding consistency.

Smith: I’m confident Pérez will be around at Red Bull next year. His fightback in Hungary was impressive, and right now, he’s doing what Red Bull needs him to do. He admitted on Thursday the crash in Monaco knocked his confidence with the car a bit, but I think he’s moving back in the right direction. 2025 is perhaps the bigger question mark.

Gluck: It almost seemed like Pérez got the racing version of the yips for a minute there and lost some confidence, but despite everything, he still has two podiums in the last three races. You have to consider Red Bull’s goals: They want to win the constructors’ title, of course, but the team also seems set up to serve as a platform for Max Verstappen’s world domination. It’s just as well that they don’t have to worry about an intra-team title fight, as briefly looked possible in the opening weeks. If Verstappen is going to win every week, Pérez just needs to keep getting podiums and he’ll be fine.

Bianchi: If Pérez can avoid another performance swoon, he should be able to keep his seat. Having finished on the podium twice in the past three races helps his cause. Also helping is that Daniel Ricciardo, Pérez’s likeliest replacement should a chance occur, still has yet to demonstrate that he’s worthy again of a seat at Red Bull. Should Ricciardo recapture his form and Pérez regresses, then maybe. But as of now, don’t expect any changes.

Safety is back in the spotlight at Spa this weekend following a fatal accident in a Formula Four race at the start of the month. Should the track consider changes moving forward?

Coleman: Yes, if the drivers agree. Zhou Guanyu raised a potential change that I agree with: Bringing back the Eau Rouge chicane, which was last used nearly three decades ago. The configuration of Eau Rouge and Raidillon is one of the fastest sequences on the calendar, and back in 1994, a chicane was introduced after the deaths of Ayrton Senna and Roland Ratzenberger in Imola. But also with the nature of the track, visibility is poor during wet conditions. Throughout media day, it’s been alternating between raining and drizzling, and the rain is expected to continue.

Smith: Safety must trump everything. The drivers regularly engage with the FIA about any potential changes or tweaks, and would have made their feelings very clear heading into the Spa weekend. I am inclined to agree with Charles Leclerc and George Russell that it’s not so much the corners themselves, but more the run-off area either side and width of the track, that is the bigger thing to look at improving. If that’s not possible, then anything to mitigate the risks – even tweaking the layout of Eau Rouge/Raidillon – would be a step.

Gluck: Logic in these situations often comes down to this: Always trust the drivers when it comes to safety. These are some of the most daring humans on the planet, and if they feel strongly enough to say, “Hey, something about this track needs to be changed,” don’t you think those opinions are valid enough to take action?

Bianchi: When it comes to matters of safety, drivers should have the deciding vote. If they feel changes are warranted, then so be it and no one should say otherwise.

Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium at Spa?

Coleman: Verstappen, Norris, Sainz

Smith: Verstappen, Norris, Pérez

Gluck: Verstappen, Perez, Norris.

Bianchi: Pérez, Hamilton, Norris