F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds, predictions, preview: How Baku’s chaotic reputation is affecting the odds
It’s been four weeks since a Formula One race weekend, and things are very different than they were last time out. The Azerbaijan Grand Prix is back with a never-before-seen weekend schedule.
We are getting a sprint race in Baku and the first-ever sprint qualifying. That means there’s just one practice session and qualifying on Friday. Saturday will feature what F1 calls the “sprint shootout” and the sprint race, although neither will affect Sunday’s starting order. It’s almost as if F1 is trying to make up for the unplanned four-week break (caused by the canceled Chinese Grand Prix) by cramming in as much meaningful racing as possible. Luke Smith has more info on the new format.
If you forgot where things stood, it’s all about Max Verstappen and Red Bull this year. Red Bull has three pole positions and three race wins in three races so far. Verstappen (69 points) is 15 points ahead of teammate Sergio Pérez (54 points) followed by Fernando Alonso (45). The odds continue to reflect supreme confidence in Verstappen, who is a comical -650 (2-to-13) to win the drivers’ championship on BetMGM.
The constructors’ championship is even more lopsided with Red Bull at -1000 (1-to-10). It’s hard to imagine either Verstappen or Red Bull failing to win over the course of an entire season, but what about this weekend in Baku?
There have been six grand prix in Azerbaijan (five as the Azerbaijan Grand Prix plus the 2016 European Grand Prix) and six different winning drivers. That said, only Mercedes and Red Bull have won in Baku despite Ferrari getting pole position three times. Red Bull has three wins in Azerbaijan despite having never started on pole. Just two of the six pole winners finished on the podium.
Weird things tend to happen in this race. The tight street circuit has contributed to some chaotic races, including a wild 2021 race that saw Max Verstappen’s tire explode from the lead and then Lewis Hamilton blow a turn on a restart with the win in his sights.
With that in mind, the odds do seem to favor Verstappen a bit less than previous races. He’s still a clear favorite at -200 (1-to-2), but perhaps Baku’s history is why the odds are less dominant than what we have seen earlier this year.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds
Fernando Alonso is third in the odds to win the race and is just under even money (-105) to finish on the podium. The Spanish driver has finished third in all three races this year in a surprisingly fast Aston Martin.
For what to watch in Baku, The Athletic’s F1 crew answered some questions and made predictions for this weekend, from the sprint race to Sunday’s grand prix.
We’re coming off a four-week break where teams could work on the cars. Do you expect notably different performance from certain cars?
Luke Smith: I’m expecting quite a few teams to bring their first proper upgrade package of the year to Baku, going beyond the more subtle updates we’ve seen at races so far. Mercedes, Alpine and McLaren are the teams I’d keep the closest eye on for updates and any potential swings in performance. The midfield is so close that any new developments could be worth several positions in the pecking order.
Madeline Coleman: Out of all the teams, McLaren is the one that intrigues me the most going into this weekend. For a decent part of the season, we’ve heard them mention the incoming Baku upgrade, but they have tempered the potential hope of a massive, massive swing. Team principal Andrea Stella said in the team’s race preview that they “recognise that in Baku we may not immediately see most of the benefits of these new spec parts.”
Jeff Gluck: You say “notably different” in the question above, so I’m going to say no. What kind of upgrades are going to make that much of a difference at a track like Baku? It’s such a strange circuit, and it’s hard to imagine anything drastically shaking up the balance of power we’ve seen to this point.
Jordan Bianchi: If there are performance swings due to the package upgrades, as Luke anticipates, then it will be interesting to see how the field shakes out. Whether any team can actually close the gap on Red Bull, however, is a different question. And the answer to that question is an emphatic “no.” Sunday is likely to be another Red Bull victory, and likely to be in dominant fashion like we’ve so many times this season.
Max Verstappen is a slightly less clear favorite (-200, 1-to-2) than he was in Australia. What about Baku would give the field a bit more of a chance?
Smith: This is probably F1’s most chaotic circuit. We’ve had six winners in six years, with no driver ever winning twice in Baku. I’d still expect Red Bull to be the team to beat, particularly with the almost 2km run from the final braking point of the lap to Turn 1 that should see its straight-line speed advantage make a big difference. But as Verstappen found out to his cost in 2021, suffering a tire failure while leading with a few laps to go, anything can happen in Baku.
Coleman: As Luke said, chaos and Baku typically go together. It’s a narrow, high-speed street circuit, and it’s a sprint race weekend — the first of the season. There’s more risk here because if you go a few centimeters wide, there’s a wall. Keep an eye on the straights for Red Bull, particularly since the cars can go three-wide heading into Turn 1. But the sharp right angle corners and the twistier sections are intriguing spots. It’s a very technical track.
Gluck: Like the others implied, the increased chance for an ill-timed safety car that could flip the strategy makes it less of a sure thing the best car will win. It’s not like this track is a fast-flowing circuit; it feels boxy and jerky, except for that endlessly long straightaway. Verstappen will still win if it’s a clean race, of course; but a track like this gives the rest of the field a better shot at something weird getting in his way.
Bianchi: Echoing what others said, Baku’s unpredictability means it adds an unknown factor that could work against Verstappen rolling to his third win in four races. The chaotic nature that is racing on the Baku street course is partly why no driver has won multiple times here.
What should we expect from the new sprint format this weekend? Do you like the changes?
Smith: I do like the changes. I’ve always been a fan of the sprints, as unpopular an opinion as that may seem – an extra race instead of practice, what’s not to like? – but this change does take away some of the concerns. It will hopefully lead to more action in the Saturday sprint as drivers can fight without worrying about impacting their Sunday starting position. That said, outside of the top eight points-paying positions, there won’t be a great deal worth fighting for.
Coleman: I also like the changes; however, I don’t like the idea of using Baku as a sprint race location. F1 has a tight turnaround with the Miami Grand Prix being next week. As far as looking at the new format, I like that Saturday is now its own event. Practice in F1 isn’t exactly the same as what other sports see because it’s more of a testing period. Luke described it well in his recent story: “The chief goal of an F1 practice session isn’t to make the driver better at driving, but to help refine the setups on the car — adjusting elements such as wing levels and suspension stiffness — to find peak performance.”
Gluck: My beef with the Saturday sprint before was it made Sunday too much of a foregone conclusion at times. We’d see some great stories in qualifying, but then the field would shake out in relatively normal fashion during the sprint race and thus put the best cars at the front of the grid, as usual, for the Sunday event. Having the sprint race be a standalone is much more intriguing and serves almost as a practice race (except for the part that pays points).
Bianchi: Having a mini race carrying some level of stakes is better than another practice session, which can often feel unnecessary. So, yes, there are no objections from this corner. But like Jeff said, sprint races have at times served as a bailout for teams that struggle in qualifying, allowing them to recoup some lost positions on Saturday thereby giving them a better chance to get closer to the front on Sunday.
Fernando Alonso has consistently been third in the odds behind Verstappen and Sergio Pérez. Do you view Alonso as the clear cut third-best driver/car combo on the grid right now?
Smith: Before Australia, I’d have said yes, but I think the last race clouded the picture a bit. Mercedes made a good step forward in understanding the W14 car, allowing Lewis Hamilton to get on the podium and George Russell to lead briefly prior to his engine issue. It’s tight between Aston Martin, Mercedes and Ferrari in the fight to be second-best right now.
Coleman: It’s not as clear cut anymore even though Aston Martin and Fernando Alonso are behind Red Bull in both standings. Other teams are starting to make steps forward and, as mentioned earlier, there are upgrades coming this weekend for a few teams. Despite how Australia ended for Ferrari, team boss Fred Vasseur felt “(the car) was much better in Melbourne.” Whether or not they made the right development choices or if the car performance was track specific should be evident in the coming races.
Gluck: It feels exhausting to trust Ferrari’s performance, and I’m still wary of Mercedes really having a breakthrough until it’s consistently proven. Alonso still has his speed from the preseason and with his veteran approach to the races, he seems deserving of having the third-best odds for now.
Bianchi: Mercedes gives the impression that it’s turned a corner, at least somewhat. And their track record — excluding last season — means they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt compared to an Aston Martin team that still has yet to prove itself over a long period of time and a Ferrari team that certainly should never be trusted to stay out of its own way.
Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium in Baku?
Smith: 1. Verstappen 2. Pérez 3. Russell
Coleman: 1. Verstappen 2. Alonso 3. Russell
Gluck: 1. Verstappen 2. Russell 3. Alonso
Bianchi: 1. Pérez 2. Russell 3. Verstappen
