F1 Dutch Grand Prix odds, podium predictions: Max Verstappen picked to dominate his home race

In a season where Max Verstappen has been utterly dominant, his home race where he has won twice from pole position since its return to the Formula One calendar isn’t likely to be a place where he slips up. It’s never a sure thing in racing, but this weekend’s Dutch Grand Prix seems likely to be a Verstappen win.

In fact, the odds have Verstappen as an even more overwhelming favorite than normal. Verstappen is -400 (1-to-4) on BetMGM to win the race, which implies an 80 percent chance of winning on Sunday.

That sounds absurd, but Verstappen has won eight straight races and 10 of 12 this season. He also has won both modern Dutch Grands Prix comfortably.

Circuit Zandvoort, which is just west of Amsterdam along the North Sea coast, hosted the Dutch Grand Prix nearly every year from 1952 to 1985, but was dropped from the calendar after that. It returned in 2021 with Verstappen’s rise and popularity in his home country making for a logical return. Madeline Coleman wrote about Verstappen’s surprisingly normal day-to-day habits this week.

In 2021, Verstappen took pole and won by more than 20 seconds. Last year, he took pole and won while getting the fastest lap. This year, the odds of him winning by more than 10 seconds and getting fastest lap is +120 (6-to-5). That is to say, an easy win is expected. There is a high chance of rain expected on both Saturday and Sunday, but Verstappen has also shown quality in wet conditions.

For what it’s worth, the odds are showing a car ranking of Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari and Aston Martin in that order.

The Athletic’s F1 crew answered questions about the race, F1’s first since its month-long summer break, and made podium predictions for Sunday’s race.

With the break behind us, do you think we will see drastic changes in the grid or will things be mostly as we left them?

Luke Smith: I doubt we’re going to see any huge swings in performance between now and the end of the season. Teams will be bringing upgrades here and there – keep an eye out for a new floor on the Aston Martin this weekend – but it will only cause swings in the current ‘mini battles’ running through the championship. The battle to be second-quickest between Mercedes, Ferrari, Aston Martin and McLaren will likely keep fluctuating from track-to-track, as well the lower-midfield fight with Aston Martin, Alfa Romeo, Williams and Haas. But I’d be surprised to see anyone get close to Red Bull or move out of those groupings.

Madeline Coleman: Haas is bringing upgrades this weekend, specifically on the front wing and brake ducts, according to team boss Guenther Steiner in the team’s Dutch GP preview, but I expect the grid to be mostly as we left them because of the nature of the shutdown. The FIA’s sporting regulations outline rules for “competitor factory shutdowns” during a 14-day stretch in July/August, meaning certain operations are ceased. You can read more about it and why summer break is important in Luke’s piece from a few weeks ago. We’re entering a 10-race stretch over the next 13 or so weeks, and team personnel and drivers will (hopefully) enter the paddock recharged this weekend.

Patrick Iversen: This week? As we left them. But we left things in a bit of flux. McLaren was on the ascent, Mercedes had started to figure things out, Aston Martin looked vulnerable and Alpine had nose-dived. The grid was already undergoing a little shake-up, and I expect those trends to continue. Let teams get their hands on the cars again, give it a few weeks and then maybe we’ll get some different changes.

Jordan Bianchi: Up front, it’s hard to believe any team will suddenly cut into Red Bull’s sizeable advantage and seriously push to snap it’s lengthy winning streak. Beyond Red Bull, from second on down, expect a continuation of what we’ve seen all season where one team – be it Mercedes, Aston Martin or McLaren – hits on something and for few races is outrunning everyone else.

This is the third straight year Zandvoort has hosted after a long absence from the calendar. Do you like this track or is it just an excuse to get the orange-clad Verstappen fans a home race?

Smith: Zandvoort is a great track, and proof that with a few changes, a fairly standard European track can be upgraded to accommodate F1. We wouldn’t have this race without Verstappen, no. But the atmosphere created has made this one of the highlights on the calendar and a blueprint for all new races moving forward in terms of how the event is run.

Coleman: I do enjoy this track because it seems to have a roller coaster-esque feel. The circuit ebbs and flows around the sand dunes and presents a unique challenge to the drivers. Take Turn 1 for example, which is named Tarzan. Zandvoort isn’t the easiest track for overtaking, but the wide bend gives a prime opportunity. The banking is also steep in some portions of the track, some of it being steeper than what fans see at Indianapolis.

Iversen: As someone who grew up watching NASCAR, steep banking in Formula One will always look alien to me. For that reason alone, the Zandvoort track and I started on the wrong foot when it returned in 2021. But the wonkiness of the track design and the unique location lends itself to interesting visuals even when the wheel-to-wheel racing disappoints.

Bianchi: The uniqueness that Zandvoort offers is a nice departure from so many of the recent additions to the F1 calendar. And when you take into consideration the unabashed fan support and lively atmosphere, this is a venue that continues to deserve a date.

Verstappen has won both recent Dutch Grands Prix from pole position. Will he be as dominant again this weekend?

Smith: There’s zero reason to think he won’t be. Teammate Sergio Pérez is realistically the only person who could beat Verstappen under normal circumstances, by virtue of being in the same car, but has been struggling more as the car development has played more to Verstappen’s strengths. Unless weather intervenes – which, looking at the forecast, it well could – then it’s hard to look past Max for pole or the win.

Coleman: Absolutely. Max Verstappen has been on a near-perfect streak since the Miami Grand Prix weekend in May, and he shows no signs of slowing down any time soon.

Iversen: Check out our Hungarian GP coverage for a preview of my answer. The Hungaroring and Circuit Zandvoort are similar tracks, and Verstappen won that race by 33 seconds. If Verstappen wins pole this weekend and gets a clean getaway in the GP, it’s all over. The only question is how much he’ll win by.

Bianchi: Why would anyone expect anything less than another dominant performance by Verstappen? The only way Verstappen doesn’t win, is if he doesn’t reach the finish line.

What drivers have the most to prove in the last 10 races of the season?

Smith: Sergio Pérez and Lance Stroll. Pérez needs to prove he has turned a corner since his rough patch from Monaco to Silverstone, and that he might be able to pose a stiffer challenge to Verstappen through the closing races. A couple of wins really must be the minimum target for him.

Stroll has to show that he can be at least a step closer to Fernando Alonso. Alonso is always going to be the team leader at Aston Martin, but the gulf between him and Stroll really does need to close up.

Coleman: Logan Sargeant and Daniel Ricciardo. Focusing on the Williams driver, he’s made rookie errors on and off throughout the season and hasn’t scored points yet. Sargeant seemed to be getting more comfortable with the car in the races leading up to the summer break, and Monza is a track that is expected to play to the FW45’s strengths. The key for him is to continue getting closer to teammate Alex Albon’s pace and tire management.

As for Ricciardo, he rejoined the grid two races before summer break so all eyes will be on him to see what he can do in a difficult AlphaTauri car.

Iversen: I’ll go off the board here and pick Carlos Sainz and Stroll. Everyone knows Sainz is one of the best drivers on the grid – but he’s the second choice at Ferrari, a tense dynamic you can hear over team radios weekly. The Spaniard must believe he’s at least as good as Charles Leclerc, and over the last 10 races, he has a chance to prove it by snagging a deserved podium or two. As for Stroll, some face-saving is in order in the final months. He’s had a top-five car all season, but the performance gap between him and Alonso hasn’t shrunk much. Stroll’s task this fall isn’t to prove he’s as good as Alonso, it’s to prove he’s also extracting as much from that car as possible.

Bianchi: Stroll is the name top of mind. Amid a season that Alonso has elevated Aston Martin to a significantly higher level that’s included multiple podiums, Stroll has been the definition of ordinary. Expecting him to match Alonso’s performance is unfair, but he must do better than he has.

Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium at Zandvoort?

Smith: Verstappen, Pérez, Hamilton

Coleman: Verstappen, Pérez, Hamilton

Iversen: Verstappen, Pérez, Russell

Bianchi: Verstappen, Pérez, Hamilton