Florida International vs Sam Houston Predictions

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18 October 2023

Florida International vs Sam Houston Predictions

Florida International and Sam Houston are having miserable seasons, with the Bearkats still in search of their first win. Offense has been hard to come by for both sides, and our college football picks don't expect that to change Wednesday night.

Both sides will be looking for their first Conference USA win of the season when the Florida International Panthers visit the Sam Houston Bearkats on Wednesday night.

Florida International did well in its non-conference schedule, but hasn’t been competitive during its current three-game losing streak. Meanwhile Sam Houston State is still looking for its first win as an FBS school after transitioning to Conference USA this year. College football odds see the Bearkats as favorites to pick up that historic victory this week.

While both teams have struggled to find wins against quality competition they do have some strengths, and I’ll be looking at those areas in order to find a good bet on this matchup of not-so-great teams.

See where I’m putting my money in my free college football picks for Florida International vs. Sam Houston State on October 18.

Florida International vs Sam Houston best odds

Florida International vs Sam Houston picks and predictions

While the Florida International Panthers have a reasonable record, a closer look at the schedule shows they don’t have much to brag about. FIU has one win over an FCS opponent, while the other wins were victories over Connecticut and North Texas... not exactly resume builders.

Of course, it’s more than the Sam Houston State Bearkats has to show, scoring a total of 10 points in their first three games.

It’s hard to say whether the Bearkats — who have looked better as of late against a tougher schedule — will be able to get their first win on Wednesday. However, there’s something that stands out about both teams: the fact that they struggle to score points.

Florida International is hardly lighting up the scoreboard, averaging just 19.7 points per game, but that’s actually a strong output compared to the Bearkats... who rank last among FBS teams with a paltry 11.2 ppg of offense.

Neither team has a consistent passing game: Sam Houston State quarterback Keegan Shoemaker has just six touchdown passes on the year along with five interceptions, while Panthers starter Keyone Jenkins has just five tosses for scores against seven picks.

The running games aren’t much to write home about either. FIU is averaging just 105.1 yards per game on the ground, while Sam Houston State is among the worst running teams in FBS at 69.5 ypg.

We have to also look at the fact these are solid defensive teams, despite their floundering offenses. Florida International is allowing a reasonable 27 ppg, and the Bearkats have been even better at 24.7.

All of this has me looking at the total for Wednesday’s matchup. Yes, the Over/Under of 41 is a bit scary, but these are two defense-first teams with anemic offenses with almost no explosive potential. Even with a number this low, I’m still taking the Under.

My best bet: Under 41 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Florida International vs Sam Houston same-game parlay

Under 41

Sam Houston State ML

Smith anytime TD scorer

For my same-game parlay, I’m going to look at the road to victory for the favorite. That starts with taking the Under, but also includes some other bets on the Bearkats to pick up their first win of the year.

As that suggests, I’m adding in a bet on Sam Houston State to win the game outright. Despite the records, the Bearkats are playing better as of late, and have been close against solid competition. That shows me more than a few weak wins for Florida International, especially with Sam Houston playing at home.

Finally, I’m picking Noah Smith to pick up a touchdown for the Bearkats. Despite expecting a low-scoring game, someone has to score for Sam Houston State, and Smith is the best bet. Not only does he lead the team with three TDs, he’s also their primary offensive weapon, getting 38 receptions so far on the year.

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Florida International vs Sam Houston spread and Over/Under analysis

Sam Houston State opened as a five-point favorite in this game despite being winless on the season. That line hasn’t changed much, with Sam Houston -5.5 being the closest thing to a consensus line on the market as of late Tuesday. Some sites are also offering a flat five-point line, with even action on either side at most sites regardless of which number they have chosen.

Florida International is 3-4 against the spread this year, matching its straight up record. Meanwhile, Sam Houston State has gone 3-2-1 ATS despite being 0-6 on the year.

The total on this game opened at a stingy 39.5 points. That number has come up to 41.5 points as the consensus Over/Under, with even action on both sides. Some sites are offering an alternative of a flat 41 points as their main line.

Both teams have shown strong defenses to go alongside struggling offenses, so it’s not surprise that they have played towards the Under this year. The Under has a 5-2 record when Florida International plays, while it has also gone 4-2 in Sam Houston’s games.

Florida International vs Sam Houston betting trend to know

The Under is 5-2 in Florida International’s last seven games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Florida International vs Sam Houston.