Kansas vs. Cincinnati Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The Kansas Jayhawks and Cincinnati Bearcats will clash on Saturday at Nippert Stadium. Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Kansas (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-5-1 O/U) lost 31-27 to K-State, and Cincinnati (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS, 7-4 O/U) lost 42-21 to West Virginia last weekend.
Injury Report
KU: QB Jason Bean (head) is questionable.
UC: No significant injuries to report.
The Jayhawks are 6.5-point spread favorites and the game total is 57.5 points.
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Can KU find its footing in Cincinnati?
Kansas couldn't get by Kansas State last weekend, losing 31-27 despite out-gaining the Wildcats. The Jayhawks rushed for 234 yards (5.7 YPC) and averaged 10.1 yards per passing completion, but committed too many turnovers (three). Can they bounce back on Saturday following consecutive losses?
KU scores 32.2 points per game (36th) and averages 422.5 total yards (45th), including 220.2 passing yards (74th) and 202.3 rushing yards (15th).
The Jayhawks' defense surrenders 26.6 points (72nd) and 380.8 total yards (72nd) per game, including 219.5 passing yards (56th) and 161.3 rushing yards (87th). They have registered 25 sacks and 11 interceptions this season.
How will Cincy's defense respond?
Cincinnati has lost eight of its last nine overall, putting a damper on its inaugural Big 12 campaign. The Bearcats were unable to stack together consecutive wins after beating Houston, as West Virginia outplayed Cincy from start to finish last week. The Bearcats were out-gained 634-332, as the Mountaineers rushed for a whopping 424 yards (9.2 YPC). Will UC's defense respond after the embarrassing performance?
The Bearcats score 24.8 points per game (81st) and average 433.7 total yards (31st), including 217.9 passing yards (78th) and 215.8 rushing yards (7th).
The Cincinnati defense surrenders 28.3 points (93rd) and 388.3 total yards (86th) per game, including 223.6 passing yards (63rd) and 164.6 rushing yards (93rd). They have accumulated 18 sacks and eight interceptions this season.
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Jayhawks QB Jason Bean didn't suit up last week, but it didn't prevent Kansas from running the football. That should be the Jayhawks' game plan again on Saturday against a Cincinnati team that surrendered over 400 rushing yards last week. The Bearcats' defense is in shambles, and I expect Kansas to take full advantage. The Jayhawks are 15th nationally in third-down conversion percentage (47.8%) and will use their 15th-ranked ground game to move the chains.
Cincinnati can also run the football, but will it even matter if it can't get off the field on defense? That's going to put a lot of pressure on the Bearcats' offense to be mistake-proof, which will make it challenging for them to cover by six or fewer points. Jones has thrown ten interceptions this season, and the Cats haven't held up too well in pass protection (26 sacks). That's going to be a problem against the KU pass rush and will likely lead to at least a couple of UC turnovers.
Prediction: Kansas -6.5
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This could be a back-and-forth affair, with the Jayhawks pulling away in the fourth quarter to win and cover the spread. Both of these teams run the football with ease, and neither defense has been stout against the run this season. If either team dominates the time of possession, I'll be surprised, as they average roughly 32 minutes (Cincinnati) and 30 minutes (Kansas) per game.
If the Bearcats' offense doesn't commit too many turnovers, the over should cash with ease. I'll bet on that outcome given the state of these defenses after 11 games.
Prediction: Over 57.5
Mike Briggs is a passionate sports fan and writer, earning his B.A. in Journalism. In 2020, he moved across the country from New Jersey to San Diego to satisfy his lifelong obsession of living near an MLB stadium. As a proud MSU basketball supporter, Mike believes he's learned a lot watching coach Tom Izzo lead the Spartans to Big Ten titles and Final Fours regularly. He's also well-read on the NBA, having a subscription to SLAM magazine, the famed "basketball bible," since he was a teenager. Mike spends his free time strategizing futures bets and researching opportunities to make a few bucks on tonight's game. You can follow Mike on Twitter @BriggsWrites for sports betting, DFS, and stock trading tips.
