Liverpool vs Chelsea Odds & Picks

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29 January 2024

Liverpool are on top of the EPL standings, and Chelsea won't be a pushover on Wednesday. Despite Chelsea playing the Reds tough, our EPL betting picks expect Liverpool to dominate the final 45 and come away with three points.

Wednesday’s Liverpool vs Chelsea game is set to be one of the biggest in the Premier League this week.

Can Liverpool secure three points and keep their title bid going or will Chelsea defy EPL odds and spoil their last meeting against Jurgen Klopp at Anfield?

Find out what I think in my EPL picks for Liverpool vs Chelsea on January 31.

Liverpool vs Chelsea best odds

EPL predictions for Liverpool vs Chelsea

Liverpool come into this week at the top of the Premier League table. The Reds will face a tough task against Chelsea, who despite coming into this match week ninth in the Premier League table, do look to be improving under the leadership of Mauricio Pochettino.

Chelsea have won four of their last five in the league, and although it's been hard for Pochettino with injuries and players on international duty, he’s finally getting a consistent side together. However, despite their improvements, my best bet is for Liverpool to win, with the scores being level at halftime.

The reasoning behind this is based on how both teams perform in the first half of games. If you look at the Premier League table you’ll see Liverpool at the top, however, if you consider just the first half of games they’d be sixth in the table. In their 21 EPL fixtures, they’ve been winning at halftime in just seven, with 11 games tied at the interval. If you look at just home games, they've been level at half in six of 10.

Only one team has more HT draws than Liverpool and that's Chelsea. They’ve been tied at the midway point in 15 of their 21 games this season, an incredible stat that perhaps shows just how important tight defense is to Pochettino. What's even more incredible is they’ve been level after 45 in eight of their 10 away games this season.

I’m expecting the first half of this game to be tight. Liverpool will have the bulk of possession but they’ll struggle to break down a Chelsea team who are good at frustrating their opponents. The second half is where the gulf shows. Liverpool have scored 30 second-half goals this season, far more than anybody else in the Premier League, and have won 15 of their 21 second halves.

Chelsea have the fourth worst record in second halves in the Premier League behind the three teams who are bottom of the actual table. They’ve allowed 21 second-half goals, and have lost 10 of their 21.

With Liverpool’s quality, particularly in attacking positions, we can trust them to continue to pressure Chelsea, and eventually, that quality will tell with Liverpool snagging three points.

My best bet: Draw/Liverpool — HT/FT (+370 at TonyBet)

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Liverpool vs Chelsea same-game parlay

Draw/LiverpoolMost goals scored in second half

Cole Palmer to be booked

Liverpool's 1H/2H goal split is 30 to 17, Meanwhile, Chelsea have conceded 21 goals in the second half compared to 10 in the first. That indicates we should see the net bulge plenty of times in the second 45.

Then to wrap up my SGP I’ll be backing Chelsea’s Cole Palmer to get booked. The talented young Englishman has been Chelsea’s best player in the Premier League this season, scoring nine and assisting four more.

The only real downside to his performances has been his habit of bookings. In 17 games — 13 of which were starts — he’s picked up six yellow cards and at times he looks very frustrated when things aren’t going his team’s way. With Liverpool likely to win this game it increases the chance of a petulant booking for Palmer.

Liverpool vs Chelsea side and Over/Under analysis

Liverpool are top of the Premier League for good reason and should win this game, but at odds of -182, I can’t recommend backing them. I think you’re getting far better value backing my best bet of Draw/Liverpool at massive +370 odds. If you don’t think Liverpool will claim the three points you can get a draw at +355 or an away win at +400.

We should see plenty of goals here. Both teams to score comes in at -189 and Over 2.5 goals is at -213, with the Under at +170. We’ve seen Over 2.5 goals in 70% of Chelsea’s away games and 70% of Liverpool’s home games, so the stats are showing that Over 2.5 is the bet to make.

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Liverpool vs Chelsea game info

Liverpool vs Chelsea key injuries

Liverpool: Joel Matip CB (Out), Stefan Bajcetic CM (Out), Thiago CM (Out), Kostas Tsimikas LB (Out), Mohamed Salah RW (Out), Waturu Endo CM (Out).
Chelsea: Robert Sanchez GK (Out), Marc Cucurella LB (Out), Wesley Fofana CB (Out), Trevoh Chalobah CB (Out), Reece James RB (Out), Romeo Lavia CM (Out), Nicolas Jackson ST (Out), Christopher Nkunku FWR (Questionable), Malo Gusto RB (Questionable).