Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prop bets, Game 4: Bet on Point and Kucherov
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet in what will be a momentum-swinging Game 4.
The pregame narrative: Brayden Point has been relentless for the Lightning and we’re eyeing his shot prop tonight. Meanwhile, Calle Jarnkrok continues to hold value to record a point so long as he plays first-line minutes and Nikita Kucherov is a power-play killer.
NHL odds as of 10:03 a.m. on 04/24/2023.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prop bets
Best Bet: Point over 2.5 shots (-125)
Things weren’t looking good for Point when he hit the boards hard five minutes into the third period of Game 3.
At that moment, Tampa’s winger had four shots on goal. He briefly exited the game with what looked to be a serious injury but returned and added an additional three SOG to finish up with seven (tied for the most in Game 3).
Assuming he’s healthy for Monday’s contest — and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be — we’re liking Point to pepper the net once again. This is a line he’s crossed in four of his past five games dating back to the regular season.
One of those regular season games was against Toronto when Point registered seven SOG in a 4-3 loss on April 11. Toronto allowed a whopping 48 shots in that game and gave up 39 shots in Game 3. Both contests were at Amalie Arena.
It seems the Leafs have trouble containing the Lightning’s offence on the road. We’ll gladly back Point, who ranks eighth in individual scoring chances per 60 (15.23) these playoffs, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Key stat: Point has averaged five SOG in his last four games against the Maple Leafs, clearing this line three times.
Quick picks
Jarnkrok to score 1+ points (+104): Mitch Marner leads the Maple Leafs with eight points these playoffs and his linemate — Auston Matthews — isn’t far behind with five. Those players are -335 and -315 to record a point respectively.
Jarnkrok is riding shotgun alongside those two, and we’re going to jump on him to be a beneficiary at plus money.
The Swedish winger picked up a point in Game 3 and has points in four of his last five games against the Lightning dating back to the regular season.
Kucherov to score 1+ PP points (-114): Kucherov netted three power play points in Game 1 before going quiet on the man advantage in the next two contests. That said, we expect the former Hart Trophy winner to pick things back up on Monday.
His 50 power play points were the most of any player during the regular season, excluding the Edmonton Oilers (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all had more).
The Leafs have taken quite a few penalties this series. If that continues, Kucherov is a great bet to record a point on the PP.
