Mets vs. Cubs pick: MLB odds, predictions, best bets

We can’t do this with Carlos Carrasco.

He’s washed and the Mets should be heavy underdogs at Wrigley Field during Thursday’s MLB action. 

Carrasco and Jameson Taillon both have ERAs above 8.00, but the underlying metrics show the former Yankee is the superior starting pitcher.

Taillon has been unlucky with a .369 BABIP and 50 percent strand rate, while Carrasco has been lucky with his .259 BABIP.

Diving deeper, Stuff+ is a metric designed to measure the “nastiness” of a pitch based on its physical characteristics, with 100 being league average (i.e., 100 Stuff+ on your fastball means you have a league-average fastball).

Mets vs. Cubs pick

(7:40 p.m. ET.)

Taillon has a 102 Stuff+ rating across his arsenal, while Carrasco sits at 87. 

Taillon will be fine. Carrasco will not.

And Vegas is pricing the matchup wrong: I’d make the Cubs around -140 favorites based on Taillon versus Carrasco. 

Meanwhile, the Cubbies also have the bullpen advantage, given the Mets are 25th in reliever expected FIP during May (4.91).

It’s hard to trust this unit without Edwin Diaz. I’d also give the Cubs slight advantages on defense and the basepaths.

Both lineups are performing equally against right-handed pitching.

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

The Cubs, however, boast a 108 wRC+ at Wrigley this year, while the Mets check in with a 92 wRC+ away from Queens.

Home-field advantage matters. 

Overall, I’m excited to back the Cubbies here.

I’m also looking to fade the Mets more generally in the short term, given they’re about to grind through the hardest part of their 2023 schedule over the next five weeks.