UConn vs Creighton prediction: College basketball odds, picks, bets

If there were any doubts about UConn, Dan Hurley’s Huskies erased ‘em over the weekend. 

The defending National Champions and AP No. 1 team destroyed No. 4 Marquette on Saturday, winning by 28 points while extending their nation-leading win streak to 14. 

But a big win usually leads to a letdown in the next game, and the Huskies seem primed to struggle on the road in Omaha. 

(8:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)

This is a complicated phrase, so bear with me… 

Top-10 teams that beat a fellow top-10 team by 15-plus points in their previous game and then play on the road against another ranked team are 4-7 straight-up (SU) in those games, with the four wins coming by a 3.8-point average margin. 

Essentially, Connecticut is off a monster statement win and is now prepping for a brutal road game.

It’s a tough spot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the squad plays flat at Creighton.

They’ve done it before.

Believe it or not, Hurley’s Huskies have never won in Omaha, losing all three road games against Greg McDermott’s Bluejays since re-joining the Big East in 2021. 

However, another Creighton-UConn trend is much more interesting to me. 

Six straight head-to-head matchups have gone Under. 

And these games have flown Under the total.

The average combined score for these past six games is 116 total points, yet the sportsbooks continue to set the bar in the 140s.

What’s going on here?

In short, it’s the schematic matchup.

Both teams run drop-coverage defense. The scheme overplays ball-handlers on the perimeter and spot-up shooters on the wings, funneling the ball toward a dominant rim protector who sags, or drops, toward the rim. 

Ultimately, the scheme baits dribble creators into awkward mid-range shots and avoids buckets at the rim or from 3 at all costs. It forces ball-handlers to create offense in the middle of the floor while denying any secondary shots or actions.

Both squads run the drop very effectively. Crieghton and UConn rank first and second among Big East teams in 3-point rate allowed, Rim-and-3 PPP allowed and two-point shooting allowed.

The Bluejays have Ryan Kalkbrenner patrolling the paint, while the Huskies have Donovan Clingan, and both stand 7-foot-2 and block more than two shots per game.

If you’re interested in learning more about drop coverage, check out this piece I wrote on the Xs and Os of the scheme. 

Either way, drop coverage is the perfect antidote to continuity motion offense, which both squads also run. 

Motion offenses are based on off-ball screening, hand-off sets and cutting actions, emphasizing ball movement to generate catch-and-shoot or rim-running opportunities. 

In turn, it de-emphasizes dribble creation, which is the best way to beat drop coverage – good guards that can dribble-penetrate and score in the middle of the floor shred drop coverage. 

But neither team has good dribble creators, and both teams will struggle to generate off-ball offense against a defensive scheme designed to take secondary creation away. 

So, ultimately, these UConn-Creighton games turn into Army-Navy affairs, as both teams run the same stuff and both defenses know how to stop it. The Huskies and Bluejays are pretty familiar with each other, aiding in the defensive effort. 

Somehow, sportsbooks haven’t adjusted for this schematic matchup, as we’re still getting mid-140s totals despite repeated history showing lower-scoring matchups. 

I expect nothing different this Tuesday night.

Under 145.5 (-105) at FanDuel | Play to 141 (-110)