MLB Draft Preview: Will Red Sox continue trend of drafting high school shortstops in first-round?

When it comes to the MLB Draft, it sure seems like the Red Sox have a type.

Since Chaim Bloom took over the front office in late 2019 the Red Sox have drafted a high school shortstop with their first pick in three consecutive drafts. Nick Yorke was Bloom’s first pick at No. 17 overall in 2020, Marcelo Mayer followed at No. 4 in 2021, and last summer Mikey Romero continued the trend at No. 24.

All three now rank among the club’s top prospects, and Mayer in particular is regarded as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.

Will the Red Sox make it four in a row at this weekend’s 2023 MLB Draft? Though it might not be a high schooler, history suggests the club will target an infielder at No. 14 overall, or at the very least a position player.

That’s a trend that even predates Bloom’s arrival.

According to a helpful table compiled by the indispensable @RedSoxStats on Twitter, the Red Sox have paid $1 million or more in bonus money to 11 draft picks since 2018, the year after Boston took right-hander Tanner Houck in the first round. All 11 of those have been position players, and nine have been out of high school.

You have to go all the way down to 14 on that list before you reach the first pitcher (Shane Drohan, fifth-round in 2020, $600,000), and out of the 34 players who have even gotten $200,000 in bonus money, only three have been high school pitchers.

Needless to say, the Red Sox have made it pretty clear what they value as an organization over the past five or six years. Considering that this year’s draft class is considered one of the deepest in recent memory and is stuffed with premium infield talent, the Red Sox should have their pick of the litter if they once again choose to go to that well.

So who exactly could they draft? Here are a few possibilities:

Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland

If there is a consensus pick who the Red Sox could take, Maryland’s Matt Shaw is it. The college shortstop has been projected for the Red Sox by a number of outlets and seems to check every box the club values in high-level prospects.

For starters, Shaw can really hit. This past year the 5-foot-11 shortstop batted .341 with 24 home runs, 69 RBI, more walks (43) than strikeouts (42), 18 stolen bases, 80 runs scored and a 1.142 OPS in 62 games largely against Big Ten competition. He also hit 22 home runs as a sophomore and last summer put up monster numbers for Bourne in the Cape Cod Baseball League.

“Shaw has a closed stance and large leg kick but his bat speed and strength allow him to drive the ball to all fields with authority,” writes Baseball America, who ranked Shaw No. 13 on its top 500 prospect rankings. “He wore out the right-center gap with home run power as a junior, with a 90th percentile exit velocity around 107 mph.”

Defensively Shaw doesn’t have a great arm and could potentially move to second base once he reaches the minor leagues, but his bat could give him All-Star upside.

Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU

Another college infielder Boston could target is TCU’s Brayden Taylor, Baseball America’s No. 14-ranked prospect and who was projected to the Red Sox by The Athletic’s Keith Law in his most recent mock draft.

“Taylor has a very pretty left-handed swing with good loft in the finish to drive the ball in the air, with some of the best batted-ball data in the college class, from launch angle to hard-hit rates and more,” Law wrote.

A career .315 hitter in three seasons of college ball, Taylor’s power took a major step forward this past spring as he jacked a career-high 23 home runs for the Horned Frogs. He also stole 14 bases, posted an OPS of 1.061, walked (54) nearly as many times as he struck out (60) and enjoyed a monster Big 12 Tournament, going 8 for 16 with four doubles and three home runs.

Like Shaw, Taylor’s value is primarily tied to his bat, but he’s also considered a solid to average defender at third with a respectable arm.

Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy (Mass.)

This would be the most exciting pick the Red Sox could potentially make, but it also might be among the most unlikely. The Red Sox haven’t drafted a high school pitcher in the first round since Jay Groome in 2016, and as laid out above, they haven’t invested in high school pitchers to any significant degree over the past few years since then.

That being said, White could be a special case. The Rowley native burst onto the national scene before his freshman year and has consistently ranked among the top pitchers in his class. The 6-foot-5 lefty, a Vanderbilt commit, can hit 97 mph on the radar gun, has strong off-speed offerings and is by all accounts among the top baseball prospects to ever come out of Massachusetts.

“If you want to imagine a lefty turning into Cole Hamels or whoever it is, Thomas White has given you all of the raw pieces you need to project that,” ESPN draft guru Kiley McDaniel said on a conference call earlier this week.

The fact that White is a hometown kid would be the icing on the cake, and he’s even widely projected to go in the No. 10-15 range, right in Boston’s wheelhouse. The problem is even the best high school pitching prospects are far from a sure thing, so would the Red Sox make such a risky bet even if the upside is a potential ace?

Probably not, but for what it’s worth, Red Sox vice president of scouting, development and integration Gus Quattlebaum said last month they wouldn’t shy away from taking an elite high school pitcher if they felt he was the right one.

Maybe White could be that guy?

Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS (Fla.)

If the Red Sox do make it four straight high school shortstops in the first round, they’ll have a number of enticing prospects to choose from. The most unique might be Arjun Nimmala, a power-hitting shortstop from the Tampa Bay area who at 17 is among the youngest players in the draft.

The son of Indian immigrants, Nimmala played cricket growing up along with baseball and a number of other sports, and since dedicating himself to baseball he’s emerged as a can’t miss prospect who boasts huge raw power despite a slender 6-foot-1, 170-pound frame, along with excellent defensive abilities and impressive baseball instincts.

“He could become a face-of-the-sport star that defines a franchise that opens up India to Major League Baseball,” McDaniel said. “He could be so many things, and he could also not make the big leagues. Like, he could be almost anything, which is really exciting to watch.”

Nimmala has been compared to former Yankees and Rangers star Alfonso Soriano, a free-swinging seven-time All-Star, and is also committed to Florida State. He ranks No. 17 on Baseball America’s big board.

Colin Houck, SS, Parkview HS (Ga.)

A two-sport standout who also ranks as a three-star quarterback on the gridiron, Houck is another highly regarded high school shortstop who can impact the game at the plate, in the field and on the base paths.

“He’s a polished hitter who only proved his hitting chops over the showcase circuit and hit .487/.589/.981 this spring with eight home runs,” writes Baseball America, which has Houck ranked No. 21 on its board. “While most of Houck’s in-game power has been gap oriented and mostly of the doubles and triples variety, he does show the ability to turn on pitches and homer to the pull side, with average or better power potential in the future as he fills out his 6-foot-2, 190-pound frame.”

Athletically Houck has all the tools you’d want, boasting great reflexes, solid arm strength and the ability to move laterally, a combination that allows him to make all manner of plays. Houck is committed to Mississippi State.

Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell HS (Fla.)

Projected to the Red Sox by MLB Pipeline, Aidan Miller is another high school infielder from the Tampa Bay area who has distinguished himself from an early age. Though Miller missed a lot of time this past spring with a broken hamate bone in his hand, he is among the most accomplished players in his class, having represented Team USA at the 12U, 15U and 18U levels.

“He is one of the best pure hitters in the high school class and has thunderous bat speed, a sound approach, advanced understanding of the strike zone and plus raw power projections—making him a fairly complete offensive player,” Baseball America writes.

ESPN’s McDaniel recently compared Miller to Yankees third baseman and former MVP Josh Donaldson, saying he’s looked like a future first-round pick since he first got to high school. The question with Miller is whether or not he’ll stick at third base or if he’ll ultimately move to a corner outfield position. He’s also among the older players in his class at 19 and would be sophomore-draft eligible if he decides to honor his commitment to Arkansas.

Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt

What if the Red Sox decided to take an outfielder? If Boston wanted to go that route, Vanderbilt’s Enrique Bradfield Jr. boasts an enticing skillset highlighted by his top-of-the-scale speed.

A 21-year-old who previously attended the same high school as Triston Casas (American Heritage HS), Bradfield was a career .311 hitter who stole 130 bases in three seasons at Vanderbilt. He also has an excellent eye at the plate, walking more times than he struck out in all three of his college seasons, and on top of that he’s also regarded as an excellent defensive center fielder with Gold Glove upside.

Baseball America compared him to former Florida Marlins great Juan Pierre, and ESPN’s McDaniel described him as a guy who could potentially fly through the minor leagues.

“I think he would be a good defensive replacement and pinch runner and bunter, like today in the big leagues,” McDaniel said.

The main knock on Bradfield is his lack of power, but his combination of speed and plate discipline could make him a nightmare for opposing clubs out of the leadoff spot, especially in the new pitch clock era.

Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

Though the Red Sox have largely shied away from high school pitchers, they’ve been much more comfortable investing in college arms, and Dollander could be one of the best fits in the first round.

After flying under the radar in high school and starting his college career at Georgia Southern, Dollander broke out as one of the best pitchers in college baseball as a sophomore after transferring to Tennessee. He posted a 2.39 ERA with 108 strikeouts and only 13 walks in 79 innings in 2022, but he couldn’t reach those same heights again this past spring, with his ERA jumping to 4.75 in 89 innings.

The problem for Dollander was largely his command, though his excellent slider also seemed to lose some of its bite. Still, he continues to boast excellent stuff along with a fastball that averages 95-96 mph, so if the Red Sox wanted to bet they can figure out what went wrong this spring, they could wind up with one of the most talented arms in the draft.